The Chiefs/Patriots getting moved to Monday night created a double-header NFL DFS Classic slate on DraftKings. The Monday Night Football Showdown slate for Chiefs/Patriots has reduced prize pools, but the main slate has a million-to-first contest. FanDuel has a similar setup of the Falcons/Packers Single Game contest having solid prize pools but little to win in the Chiefs game and a robust main slate. We’ll look at the main slate by each position but there will be some NFL DFS picks and notes for both Showdown slates as well.
Ben Rasa’s Bet of the Day
Awesemo’s sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day’s betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.
Primetime Slate Strategy: Week 4 Monday Night Football NFL DFS Picks
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes
Unsurprisingly, Mahomes is our top-projected quarterback on the slate. He’s topped 300 yards in each of his past two games and has thrown multiple touchdowns in every game this year. The New England defense is solid but was unable to stop Russell Wilson earlier this year. Mahomes is an even taller task. The only reason to move off Mahomes is to save is for cap savings or differentiation in tournaments.
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers has opened the year on a warpath after his team drafted quarterback Jordan Love in the first round of the draft. Rodgers has nine scores on the year and is just shy of averaging 300 passing yards per game. The only concern for him is that he’ll be without Allen Lazard and Davante Adams this week. He’s projected for nearly identical ownership to Mahomes but doesn’t appear to hold as much value at just $700 cheaper on DraftKings. Rodgers makes for an interesting fade in tournaments.
Matt Ryan
Ryan should be the preferred choice of quarterback in his game. Because Atlanta has found creative ways to lose all three games this year, Ryan is averaging 42.7 passes for 320.3 yards per game. Now he gets his No. 1 receiver, Julio Jones, back in the fold. Pivoting from Rodgers to Ryan makes less sense on FanDuel because the gap in their cost is only $500.
Bryan Hoyer
Hoyer projects poorly on both sites. He averaged 5.6 adjusted yards per attempt in 2017 and 4.2 last year with the Colts. No one will be playing him in tournaments but probably for good reasons.
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Running Back
Aaron Jones vs. Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Jones rightfully deserves to be the highest-cost back on the main slate on both sites. Whenever Adams is out, he smashes.
The sample is small, so don’t go overboard with the extrapolation, but the receiving volume in particular is promising for his fantasy output. On DraftKings in particular, Jones is the clear top play. His combination of receiving and rushing upside makes Jones the preferred Captain on the Falcons/Packers Showdown slate.
Edwards-Helaire is projected for massive ownership discount on FanDuel but is the lead back for the best offense in the NFL. His touchdown upside parallels Jones’, and he is slightly less expensive. He’s the ideal pivot on FanDuel. The ownership discount isn’t much on DraftKings so both are in play there. Edwards-Helaire makes a great play at Captain for Showdown because he can score without correlating with a receiver or quarterback. Because of the massive spread, playing him in a Chiefs onslaught versus a lone New England receiver is in play.
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The Rest
Awesemo’s projections have a chasm between the previous two backs and anyone else. Todd Gurley is next, but his $5,500 tag and third-highest ownership are less than appealing. With the Falcons as 6-point underdogs, Gurley is a risky play in a game he could be scripted out of.
Rex Burkhead gets a boost from Sony Michel (quad) being inactive, but the Patriots could struggle to sustain a rushing game as 10.5-point underdogs. James White missed time without an injury, so he should be able to return to his full role as the pass catcher out of New England’s backfield. His $4,700 price tag on DraftKings is worth a few fliers in tournaments.
Jamaal Williams is another interesting play on DraftKings exclusively. He caught four passes in Week 1 but has split that role with Tyler Ervin ever since. Ervin has also gotten some run at receiver. His $3,000 price on Showdown is especially notable given the number of premium players worth rostering in his game.
J.J. Taylor saw 11 carries last week, and now Michel is out. He’s only $200 in Showdown and should be the direct backup to Burkhead.
Wide Receiver
Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley
Jones and Ridley are both solid plays in the context of their game environment, but Jones is getting more buzz than Ridley on both sites. He’s slightly less expensive, but that might just be because Ridley is better. Ridley outscored Jones on the back of two touchdowns in Week 1 and has topped 100 yards in all three games this year. Jones is returning from a hamstring strain.
Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins
Watkins and Hill project as five of the highest-owned plays, but neither looks to be a particularly good value. The game total dropping by 5 points and the spread movement has hurt the passing projection for the Chiefs. Pivoting off all Chiefs receivers to Travis Kelce or Edwards-Helaire is a viable tournament strategy. Demarcus Robinson played on 12 more snaps than Mecole Hardman last week, but both were dwarfed by Watkins, who led all receiving options with 65 snaps. He’s not a terrible Showdown Captain in large tournaments because of his $8,700 cost.
Patriots Receivers
Julian Edelman‘s 26.7% target share is top 10 among receivers, and his 53% air yards share leads all wideouts. His volume could insulate him from the downgrade in quarterback play.
N’Keal Harry‘s 6.3 average depth of target is among the worst for qualified receivers. His $3,900 price is likely too good to pass on in cash games. However, the low ceiling on each of his targets is a worthy reason to fade him in tournaments.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Marquez Valdes-Scantling costs $1,000 more on DraftKings and $700 more on FanDuel than Harry but projects as a far better play. With Lazard and Adams out, Valdes-Scantling should see an uptick in targets, and his targets are especially valuable. He has an 18.2 aDOT on the year. He’ll be chalky, but that is likely chalk worth eating on a small slate.
The target tree behind Valdes-Scantling is very uncertain. Ervin has gotten some run as a runner and receiver, but Darrius Shepherd is expected to see an increase in snaps as the No. 2 receiver. He’s a value at his price on the main slate and Showdown, but don’t rule out another receiver like Ervin or Malik Taylor stealing snaps from him.
Tight End
Travis Kelce
Kelce is the best tight end play on the slate both by raw points and salary-based value. With a handful of affordable options at receiver, it’s not hard to get Kelce in cash and tournament lineups. Don’t go into Monday night without some exposure to the best tight end in the league.
Robert Tonyan and Hayden Hurst
New England has yet to feature a tight end in their lineup, so Tonyan and Hurst are the only prominent main slate options after Kelce. Hurst is more expensive on FanDuel and DraftKings but will also come in with lowered ownership relative to Tonyan. He’ll need a touchdown to separate himself and come close to Kelce, so Hurst is best deployed in stacks with Ryan.
Defenses in NFL DFS
Getting unique at defense might not be an option tonight. The Packers and Chiefs are both at home and favored tonight. Both project as the top two values and overall plays at defense. The Chiefs are expensive but have incredible upside versus Hoyer. They also correlate well with an Edwards-Helaire stack and Chiefs passing game fade.
The Packers will see less than half the ownership of Kansas City and are still in a solid spot as favorites at home. It’s viable to save some money and pivot off the Chiefs in favor of Green Bay.
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