Week 17 Sunday Night Football brings a matchup with playoff hopes on the line as the Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Baltimore Ravens. Wrapping up the holiday with NFL Week 17 Sunday Night Football, Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all of the different slates, game formats and sites, featuring these Steelers-Ravens DFS picks.
This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There is loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 17 Sunday Night Football slate featuring the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Baltimore Ravens.
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NFL DFS Picks: Week 17 SNF | Steelers-Ravens
Pittsburgh Steelers: 16.5 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic Projections have rookie Kenny Pickett just inside the top 25 quarterbacks for the full Week 17 player pool. His ranking is buoyed by several teams using dreadful and/or unproven backups, but Pickett does at least have double-digit fantasy points in eight of his 10 games, excluding Week 14 against Baltimore when he suffered a concussion early in the first quarter.
In eight of his past nine full games, Pickett has at least 28 pass attempts. Though he has just five touchdowns in this span, he at least is showing signs of improving each game, with just two interceptions in his past six games. Like most young quarterbacks, he does have some rushing upside and could scramble a few times while under pressure to add a couple fantasy points to his total. The Ravens have the 14th best passing DVOA per Football Outsiders, along with the fourth best rushing DVOA.
Running Back
Second-year running back Najee Harris looks to have secured essentially two-thirds of the snap share with rookie Jaylen Warren soaking up the rest. Fullback Derek Watt will be in the mix for half a dozen or so plays, but for the season he has just seven carries and five targets.
Harris likely will see close to 20 opportunities, with Warren getting 8-10. Baltimore has allowed 75 or more rushing yards to a single runner four times this season: Nick Chubb twice (99, 91), Saquon Barkley (83) and Joe Mixon (78). In Week 14, with Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback, Harris had 12 carries for 33 yards, while Warren had three for 11.
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Wide Receiver
Diontae Johnson is eighth in the NFL with 130 targets yet still does not have a touchdown. Every other wideout and tight end with at least 56 targets has scored once, with the exception of Ben Skowronek (61 targets). Johnson is still the best fantasy option from the Steelers and at least gets a ton of volume. Rookie George Pickens has comfortably moved into the WR2 role and is a secondary option as his salary is not getting much of a discount to Johnson on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Of course there is a discrepancy in their popularity, so that should also be a factor when choosing between this duo.
Steven Sims Jr. and Gunner Olszewski round out the receiving corps, with Sims having the edge in projected targets, just barely. Sims also has been returning punts and sharing kickoff returns with Benny Snell Jr. and Olszewski.
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth is building on a strong rookie campaign and his 90 targets are second on the team. In his past eight games, he has at least six targets on six occasions, with three games of eight or more. Like his fellow pass-catchers, touchdowns have been scarce, but Freiermuth is definitely live in the red zone. Zach Gentry and Connor Heyward each are live for a target, but more than three combined looks is a stretch having occurred only three times this season.
Defense/Special Teams
Even with a backup quarterback, Baltimore has limited the opposition to only six sacks over the past four games and its run-first offense keeps interception opportunities to a minimum. Pittsburgh has multiple sacks in seven of its past eight games and that is in play again tonight.
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Baltimore Ravens: 16.5 Points
Quarterback
Tyler Huntley will play a fifth consecutive game with Lamar Jackson (knee) still unable to practice. Baltimore has clinched at least an AFC Wild Card and trails the Cincinnati Bengals by one game for the AFC North title. Huntley has not been particularly inspiring from a fantasy perspective, but the Ravens have no trouble winning ugly, taking three of the four games without Jackson without scoring more than 17 points.
We know what we are getting with Huntley: around 150 passing yards and another 30 or so on the ground. In his four starts, he has one passing and one rushing touchdown. Pittsburgh has the sixth best rushing DVOA, though it is 17th against the pass.
Running Back
This is a split backfield, which makes a lot of sense considering the run-heavy approach. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards have essentially split the running back snaps and carries over the past three weeks. Dobbins does have more yards, but even casual observers can see he is not anywhere near 100% as he works his way back from a knee injury. When it comes to the receiving work, though Dobbins has the advantage, he has only two targets over the past three games.
Fullback Patrick Ricard has played 75% or more of the snaps in three of the past five games, culminating in 85% last week. At 311 pounds, he is more like a sixth offensive lineman than a running back or tight end, with two carries and four targets in that five-game span. Justice Hill is the backup to Dobbins and has four targets in the past four games with two carries, though he is barely averaging double-digit snaps.
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Wide Receiver
Demarcus Robinson, DeSean Jackson and Sammy Watkins are the top options with Devin Duvernay and Rashod Bateman on the shelf. Yes, James Proche is lurking, but he has been on the field for only seven offensive plays over the past three weeks. Robinson is the nominal WR1 with Huntley, though even in-season additions Jackson and Watkins are not too far behind the curve. On average, nine targets have gone to this position over the past three games. Enjoy!
Tight End
Mark Andrews has seen twice as many targets as the wideouts combined over the past three weeks, with rookie Isaiah Likely averaging two per game over the last month and Josh Oliver having five targets in the past two weeks. Andrews gets the nominal vote of confidence as the best option, but it is going to come down to whichever players find the end zone tonight … and it may not be many, considering the sub-35 point total.
Defense/Special Teams
Baltimore does a decent job getting to the quarterback and should be in the mix for a handful of sacks and turnovers, with a little luck.
Sunday Night Football Steelers-Ravens DFS Single-Game Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups, and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
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Week 17 Sunday Night Football Steelers-Ravens DFS Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Steelers-Ravens
- Najee Harris:Â Gets first crack at the volume for Pittsburgh.
- Tyler Huntley:Â Is capable of a two-touchdown game, which would likely break this slate wide open.
- Diontae Johnson: A touchdown has to come at some point, right?
- Kenny Pickett:Â Mistakes will be made by the rookie, but he has flashes of talent.
- Pat Freiermuth:Â Inexperienced quarterbacks lean on their tight ends.
- Mark Andrews:Â The defense is going to be all over him tonight.
- George Pickens:Â Similar assessment as his quarterback.
- Justin Tucker:Â Arguably the best kicker in the history of the game.
- Baltimore D/ST:Â Should thrive in front of their purple cammo clad faithful.
- J.K Dobbins:Â Salary is prohibitive considering he is not at full health and sharing the load.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Steelers-Ravens
- Pittsburgh D/ST:Â Slight downtick being on the road.
- Chris Boswell:Â Struggling this season, converting just 10 of 16 from beyond 40 yards.
- Gus Edwards:Â Hop on the Gus Bus and hope there is a trip to the end zone.
- Jaylen Warren:Â Needs something to befall Harris in-game in order to reach double-digit opportunities.
- Steven Sims Jr.: Makes everything come together at just $1,000 on DraftKings. He is an afterthought at $5,500 on FanDuel
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks For Steelers-Ravens
- Sammy Watkins, DeSean Jackson and Demarcus Robinson:Â Caveat emptor!
- Isaiah Likely and Josh Oliver:Â Former is a tertiary option, latter only gets a mention at $400 on DraftKings.
- Justice Hill:Â Needs to get an opportunity and then convert, a tall order.
- Zach Gentry and Connor Heyward:Â Backup tight ends, though they are well down the Pittsburgh pecking order.
- Gunner Olszewski:Â Long shot to do anything, but should get a target or two.
- Patrick Ricard:Â He will be on the field a lot, but opportunities will be scarce.
- Benny Snell Jr., Miles Boykin, Derek Watt, James Proche and Andy Isabella:Â If someone from this motely crew beats us, so be it.
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