Week 14 Sunday Night Football features the Buffalo Bills hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bills are favored by 2.5 points and the game has a 48.5-point total. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.
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NFL DFS Picks: Sunday Night Football | Bills vs. Steelers
Showdown Captain
Josh Allen
The crux of this Showdown slate will be deciding on how to use Allen. In small-field contests and cash games, there’s no reason to get away from him at the Captain position. He’s averaging 283.6 passing yards per game to go along with his 2.2 throwing scores weekly. However, in large-field tournaments, a fifth of the public is going to be playing him at Captain. There are paths to other players outscoring him when adjusting for Allen’s $18,300 cost.
Stefon Diggs
Diggs is the No. 1 receiver to the quarterback everyone is eager to play, and he controls so much of the receiving volume that anytime Allen goes off, Diggs is liable to put up an even bigger day. He has a 29% target share and a 36% air yards share. Those marks are second and 11th among receivers this season. Diggs also leads Buffalo in red zone targets, increasing his odds of scoring more points on Allen’s touchdowns than Allen himself.
Pittsburgh Receivers
The Pittsburgh receiving room is a mess to decipher, but over the previous five weeks, one player has emerged as a clear winner:
- Diontae Johnson – 26% target share, 24% air yards share
- Chase Claypool – 18% target share, 34% target share
- JuJu Smith-Schuster – 18% target share, 13% air yards share
Johnson has hit double-digit targets in each of his past five games and has no fewer than six catches. He’s a great leverage point of the more popular Bills options and his wide receiver teammates. Claypool has loads of big-play upside, but he also gets taken off the field for James Washington, whereas Johnson and Smith-Schuster are much closer to every-down players.
NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations
Ben Roethlisberger
When within a touchdown of their opponents, no team passes at a higher rate (64%) than the Steelers. They haven’t been on the losing end of many games this year, so that hasn’t manifested in Roethlisberger leading the league in pass attempts, but they are underdogs to the Bills this week. Going with a Roethlisberger over Allen in the Flex is the ultimate tournament pivot. Using both and a cheap Captain is also a viable way to get contrarian.
Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis
The Bills have played two games without John Brown during his current stint on IR. Beasley has 15 targets in those two games, but Davis is only five air yards behind him at 130. Beasley projects as a solid value but Davis is right behind him from a PTS/$ perspective and will be far less popular.
James Conner
Conner has missed two games while on the reserve/COVID-19 list and returns in a difficult spot. He plays for one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league and is projected to be playing from behind. He’s a contrarian way to build Allen lineups but nothing more.
Devin Singletary
Like Pittsburgh, the Bills have simply chosen not to run the football for most of the season, and many of their rush attempts have come through Allen. The Bills are 28th in running back attempts. Singletary did operate as the clear lead back last week, likely because Zack Moss fumbled a handoff inside his own end zone, setting the 49ers up for an easy score. Singletary logged 18 carries and four targets to Moss’s three carries and one target. If that split continues, Singletary will be another great leverage play off Allen.
Defense and Kicker
The Steelers defense is averaging 3.7 sacks per game, a half sack more than any other team in the league. They also lead the league in turnovers forced. Allen has been incredible this year, but he’s still throwing an interception in three-quarters of his games on average. He also has five games with multiple sacks taken.
Buffalo is fourth in the NFL with 2.4 field goal attempts per game, and Vegas has them pegged as the higher-scoring team on this slate. Tyler Bass is the preferred kicker in those games.
Low-Owned NFL DFS Picks
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James Washington
Washington out-snapped Claypool last week and managed to turn his four targets into two catches for 80 yards and a score. He’s run a route on 45.1% of Roethlisberger’s dropbacks this year and is only $2,600.
Dawson Knox
Knox has logged four targets in two of his previous three games and will once again get to vie for opportunities without Tyler Kroft on the field. He’ll need a touchdown to make the optimal lineup but is worth a flier in Allen rosters.
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