Week 16 NFL DFS Value Picks: Daniel Jones and Giants Can't be Ignored

Only three weeks remain in the NFL’s regular season and with the holidays quickly approaching we have a unique slate to build for in Week 16. Saturday becomes the main slate, hosting ten games across the afternoon. With some teams winding into their offseason a little early and others scrapping for the remaining playoff spots, there are a lot of decisions to keep our ears toward. This column will cover Saturday’s main slate diving into the best NFL DFS value picks by using Stokastic’s NFL DFS projections to analyze which plays generate the best point-per-dollar value while also addressing the projected ownership to understand the leverage (or lack thereof) on these plays.

Week 16 NFL DFS Value Picks

Quarterback: Daniel Jones – $5,600 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel

Opening the week as the best value play on both DraftKings and FanDuel forces Daniel Jones ownership into the top three at quarterback.

At first that sounds surprising, but New York’s matchup with Minnesota is favorable for the position to say the least. The Vikings have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this year, while surrendering the third-most yards per pass attempt (7.5) and second-most yards passing per game (278.8). This is a massive benefit for Jones who is below average as a passer, but who provides a higher ceiling than most QBs in his price range because of his rushing ability.

Jones ranks top five in rush attempts (105), red zone carries (23), yards rushing (583) and touchdowns (5) at the position this year. He has three top ten fantasy performances, with two QB3 outings and a QB8 showing. Jones scored a rushing touchdown in all three of those games.

This matchup sports the second-highest game total (48.0) on the slate making it a great game to stack if you’re trying to win a large field tournament. The Giants currently rank as the Top Stack in Stokastic’s NFL DFS Top Stacks Tool. With one of the lowest average salaries on the slate, they open the opportunity to roster elite runbacks.

Kirk Cousins also projects well, and the Vikings are equally stackable. However, the Giants have a much better defense and Cousins is priced $700 higher on DraftKings and $300 more on FanDuel. His stacking options are much more expensive, as well. You should prefer the Justin Jefferson or Dalvin Cook runbacks to secure most of the value in this potential shootout.

Quarterback: Gardner Minshew II – $4,800 DraftKings, $6,100 FanDuel

With twenty starts over the last four seasons, Gardner Minshew II has gone 8-12 with 289 yards passing per game and a 38:11 touchdown to interception ratio. No one can argue that Minshew matches the rushing upside of Jalen Hurts, but he did add 25.6 yards rushing per start on 4.97 yards per rush.

Projections without Hurts are generating immense value for the Eagles’ backup quarterback. Philadelphia’s supporting cast is by far the best that Minshew has played with in his career. They will help him navigate a difficult matchup with Dallas. The Cowboys have been solid defensively due to their ability to rush the passer, with 3.5 sacks per game (2nd). This has kept their yards allowed per pass attempt (5.9) towards the top of the league. However, they have only generated 1.3 sacks per game (30th) over their last three, and their opponent’s yards per pass attempt has risen to 6.9 (11th). Keep in mind that these three games came against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts.

You should definitely look to this matchup for DFS, as the game total (47.0) is the third-highest on the slate.

Running Back: James Cook – $4,900 DraftKings, $5,300 FanDuel

Seeing his snap share increase to 36.7% in the last three weeks has allowed James Cook to produce double-digit fantasy performances in Weeks 13 and 15. This Buffalo Bills’ backfield has turned into a near-even split that’s slightly in favor of Devin Singletary. Cook’s work in the passing game increases both his floor and ceiling after running thirteen, ten and twelve routes over this recent span.

His attachment to this elite offense cannot go understated. The Bills’ matchup this week against a laughable Chicago Bears’ defense means Cook is going under-owned at sub-7%. He is understandably not a top option at the position, but considering his snap share and Buffalo’s pass rate- which ranks in the top half of the league- the upside at this tag can’t be ignored.

The Bears allow 4.6 yards per rush attempt on the year and surrender 26.1 fantasy points to opposing running backs (28th) by way of 1,970 all-purpose yards and 16 total touchdowns. Three running backs have surpassed 100 yards on the ground against them. While this is unlikely for Cook, that’s a difficult ask for any running back sub-$5k. The Bills hold the fourth-highest implied team total (24.5) on the slate, so if Cook can secure his third touchdown of the season, he might just be on his way to a career day. Regardless, he stands out as one of the best NFL DFS value picks on this slate.

Wide Receiver: Isaiah Hodgins – $4,100 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel

Isaiah Hodgins enters Week 16 with an increasing snap share over the last three games, and he projects as the best stacking option with Daniel Jones. The Giants are welcoming the worst defense that Hodgins has seen as a starter. This could be the perfect Cash and Tournament play if it doesn’t end up too chalky.

Luckily, Richie James Jr. ($3,900) offers a solid pivot, or a potential double-stacking option with impressive projections. No need to re-hash Minnesota’s defensive woes. To look a bit closer at their secondary in particular though, they’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points (42) per game to opposing wide receivers. Hodgins’ sample size may be small with just eight games played this season, but he boasts impressive ranks in the efficiency department. His 5.83 yards of average cushion ranks top in the league per Player Profiler, while 2.19 yards of separation per target ranks tenth. Additional metrics that rank him in the top ten include; 54.1% route win rate (7th), 50% win rate verse man coverage (3rd) and 123.3 QB Rating per target (4th).

This is yet another value play that appears to be going under-owned at sub-8% when looking into the upside of an ascending player in a position group desperate for talent.

Tight End: T.J. Hockenson – $4,900 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel

Following the trade from Detroit, many thought the production from T.J. Hockenson would take some time given the talented surrounding roster and the success of the tight end position across the board. Surprising many, Hockenson has produced great fantasy numbers despite the Vikings going 1-6 since his arrival. Since Week 8 he’s produced 11.2 fantasy points per game while running routes on over 80% of dropbacks. On 7.6 targets per game, he’s yielded 51.9 yards receiving yet only produced one touchdown.

DFS players will get pulled to the likes of Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen, who both project for good value. However, it’s Hockenson who manages the highest value score of the Vikings and is one of the tops amongst all flex-eligible players. Priced as TE4, but projecting with the likes of Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce in terms of value, this is looking like a premier runback in the potential shootout for Saturday’s NFL DFS main slate.

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