This marks the last day of hockey before the All-Star break. It is just a short five-game slate ahead of us but it is our last opportunity to make some NHL DFS picks before we head into the break. Awesemo members should be sure to check our Discord for updates and non-subscribers should check out the free premium data we have on the site today — our Top Stacks tool. So, for the last time until Monday, let’s go over some NHL DFS advice for tonight and find some of the best NHL DFS picks, stacks and top value plays for tonight’s five-game slate.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Ryan Hartman (MIN at CHI): DraftKings – $6,500 | FanDuel – $6,800
While Ryan Hartman’s shot rate has fallen a bit of late – 2.7 per game over his last 10 games – he is still skating 21 minutes a night in that span. He has also skated more than 19 minutes in five of his last six contests. He has not been producing as much as he was earlier in the season, but he is still seeing a lot of ice time on the team’s top-scoring line. That is still valuable.
The Blackhawks have assembled a new checking line and there is no telling exactly how they will fare. With that said, two-thirds of that line (Kirby Dach and Philipp Kurashev) have skated nearly 200 minutes together and are giving up far more scoring chances than they are allowing, roughly a 46% scoring chance share. That is not near good enough to shut down this Minnesota top line, so the advantage goes to Hartman and the Wild here.
Hartman is expensive here tonight but the matchup should be a good one at 5-on-5. Now that he is skating on the second power play unit, he is sometimes left off Minnesota tournament stacks. He is still a shooter and is still playing a lot of minutes, even if not with the man advantage. He is fine as a tournament one-off but is best used in a stack.
Nicklas Backstrom (WSH vs. EDM): DraftKings – $4,600 | FanDuel – $6,400
Over Edmonton’s last 10 games, the team is in the bottom-10 of the league in shot attempts allowed while short-handed, worse than Buffalo and Montreal. The goaltending has been absolutely horrific, meanwhile, and that is leading to more than 16 goals against per 60 minutes while short-handed in that span. The penalty kill is falling apart and that is important for tonight. It is a part of the reason Nicklas Backstrom is second in our projections tonight for centers on DraftKings priced under $5,000.
Over the last two seasons, the team is generating about 25% more shot attempts when Backstrom is on the ice for the power play than when he is not. That has helped the team score nearly 50% more goals when Alex Ovechkin is on the ice with Backstrom than without. In short, Backstrom has been a key cog to this man advantage, and Edmonton’s penalty kill has looked very shaky recently.
When looking at using Backstrom, he is not like the aforementioned Hartman, which means he is not a shooter. It makes him harder to use without bringing his linemates along with him, or at least Ovechkin on the power play. Regardless, this is a decent special team matchup for the Capitals and we are working with a limited number of games.
Winger
Viktor Arvidsson (LAK at DET): DraftKings – $5,300 | FanDuel – $6,400
Over his last 10 games, Viktor Arvidsson is averaging 3.6 shots per game despite skating fewer than 17 minutes a night. The reason is that his line just absolutely cannot stop generating shots, racking up 77 shot attempts and over four expected goals per 60 minutes. That Los Angeles second-line has been great all season long and Arvidsson has been largely great as well. He is just behind the next winger on our list for raw projections tonight on DraftKings for a winger priced under $5,500 and leads all wingers on FanDuel priced under $7,000.
Detroit’s team defense has very much fallen off. They are allowing roughly the same shot and expected goal rates at 5-on-5 as Ottawa and they are among the 10 most-penalized teams in that span mentioned earlier. The Kings have been known to mix up their power play units and Arvidsson has seemed to stay on the top PP quintet of late. That is important for a matchup tonight where the Wings could get undisciplined.
With his price, Arvidsson at least has to be considered for cash games. Most of the top options are on the road tonight and he is a heavy volume shooter at a reasonable price. With that said, he and his linemates are most certainly in play for tournaments tonight. It is a good matchup for them at 5-on-5 and Arvidsson should get some extra PP value attached.
Arvidsson looks like one of the best value plays on the fantasy hockey slate tonight. He was showing up highly in our NHL DFS projections and lineup optimizer when running optimal lineups. Check out who else is rating out as some of the best NHL DFS picks today in our DraftKings NHL fantasy cheat sheet and FanDuel NHL fantasy cheat sheet.
Alex DeBrincat (CHI vs. MIN): DraftKings – $5,100 | FanDuel – $7,600
Because he plays on such bad teams constantly, Alex DeBrincat keeps getting short-changed at times by us as analysts. The fact is he is on pace for 47 goals this year and is the same price as 20-goal scorers over on DraftKings. He is priced up on FanDuel so users playing over there will have more of a question to ask themselves.
This is also a tough matchup for Chicago, but that could be said of almost any matchup for Chicago. Such is the nature of being a non-playoff team from basically Game 1 of the season. He has a very low assist total but there are reasons to believe that will regress positively over the balance of the season. That is to say, for as good as he was on such a bad team, there is a good chance he is even more productive in the second half.
DeBrincat has been moved to a line with Patrick Kane and they typically do not have good possession numbers, but they do typically have good scoring numbers. They are highly-skilled players that can make any team look foolish on any given night. DeBrincat’s scoring prowess makes him a one-off target tonight, particularly on DraftKings, for tournaments.
Matt Boldy (MIN at CHI): DraftKings – $3,600 | FanDuel – $4,500
Since Matt Boldy’s arrival on the second line here for Minnesota, they have been on a tear with 70 shot attempts per 60 minutes, 58% of the scoring chances and scoring 3.2 goals per 60 as well. In his nine games, he is averaging a point per game and 2.5 shots per game. The line has been great, he has been great, and he is still very reasonably priced across the industry. All those things bring him into play for us here today, as well as him leading our FanDuel projections for wingers priced $4,500 or less.
Unlike teammate Hartman that was mentioned earlier, Boldy is on the top power-play unit for Minnesota. For the month of January, Chicago had a bottom-5 penalty kill in the league and that is not something that has been a strength this year. It should be a good matchup at all strengths for Boldy tonight.
With his price, particularly on FanDuel, and matchup, it is likely that Boldy carries some high ownership tonight. All the same, he needs to be given heavy consideration in all formats because of his role, cost and matchup. When stacking him in tournaments, though, it is a bit tougher because no one on his line skates the man advantage with him. Stacking him in tournaments may require a bit of creativity.
Latest NHL DFS Content
Defensemen
Seth Jones (CHI vs. MIN): DraftKings – $6,400 | FanDuel – $6,600
It is a good fantasy season in all regards for Seth Jones, who is on pace for over 50 points, 200 shots and 165 blocks over the course of an 82-game season. For the month of January, the Wild were in the top-10 of the league by shot rate at 5-on-5 and Jones is regularly playing over 26 minutes a night. He should be able to rack up the blocks tonight and he is also a genuine threat to put up several shots. Those peripherals really help float his value even when he is not scoring. He will not see a lot of ownership tonight and because of his ability to produce in various categories, he makes a nice one-off for tournaments tonight.
Noah Hanifin (CGY at ARI): DraftKings – $3,600 | FanDuel – $4,800
For a guy that does not really shoot a lot, Noah Hanifin has multiple shots on goal in over 60% of his games so far this season. It may not sound like a lot, but that is a reasonable floor for a guy that is not excessively priced. Also, given the matchup with Arizona tonight, there is likely to be a lot of ownership on Rasmus Andersson, the guy running the top PP unit. Hanifin is a nice pivot play here to get a lower-owned Calgary defenseman in the lineup. He can also be used with some sort of Flames forward stack to change things up in tournaments as well.
Goalie
Alex Nedeljkovic (DET vs. LAK): DraftKings – $7,500 | FanDuel – $7,000
Earlier in this article, we talked about Detroit’s defense not being in tip-top shape while the Los Angeles Kings are in the top-5 of the league over the last month in 5-on-5 shot rate. This team does not have the elite scorers like Florida or Colorado do, and that is good news for Alex Nedeljkovic. He should see a fair amount of volume here tonight and that makes him a target for us in all formats. By our projections, he should rack up close to the most saves on the slate.
Top NHL DFS Stacks
DETPP: Larkin-Fabbri-Seider
The idea here is to use any mix of the top power-play unit but to take advantage of a weak Los Angeles penalty kill. They are flirting with a bottom-10 penalty kill over the last month, posting a PK that is closer to the Buffalo Sabres than any other team. That is not the company the Kings want to keep and Dylan Larkin has been shooting much more than any other player of late. The Detroit top PP unit is in play for us tonight.
MIN1: Kaprizov-Zuccarello-Hartman
As mentioned in the section on Hartman, some people are going to leave him off the stack in order to focus more on the power-play guys. Using all three players off the top line is just fine here tonight, as they are still generating north of 60 shot attempts and 2.7 expected goals per 60 minutes, well above average offensively. The ownership should be in check tonight with other expensive lines around the slate and that puts MIN1 into play for us.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
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