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NHL DFS Picks & Stacks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups | Nashville Predators and Sebastian Aho 11/30/21

Michael Clifford

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We have a healthy eight-game slate ahead of us, and that means lots of spots from which to select our NHL DFS picks. This Power Play article will use Awesemo’s Premium NHL Tools to help dole out the NHL DFS advice to help with building lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The Awesemo NHL projections and ownership projections are two of the best tools to utilize when constructing stacks and making the optimal NHL DFS picks. Let’s go position by position and pinpoint some of the top plays and stacks for Tuesday, Nov. 30.

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NHL DFS Picks, Tops Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays

Center

Sebastian Aho (CAR at DAL): DraftKings – $7,700 | FanDuel – $8,900

On the season, the Dallas Stars are the fourth-most penalized team in the league. In their 19 games, they have a penalty kill that is in the middle of the league by shot attempts allowed and bottom-10 by goals against per 60 minutes. They, along with Ottawa, are the only teams in the bottom-10 by total power-play goals allowed despite playing fewer than 20 games. An average-or-worse penalty kill and a lot of penalties are not a good mix for Dallas.

They are a good mix for Carolina and Sebastian Aho, though. The team is fourth by power-play opportunities drawn on the season and he is a focal point of the top power-play unit, with five goals on the man advantage already this year. It is a good top unit as well, with 117 shot attempts generated and 8.8 goals per 60 minutes, all well above average.

At this price, it is tough to use him on the road in cash games. In tournaments, though, his line may get overlooked given the matchup against Dallas. The power-play matchup is a great one, however, and Aho skates with Teuvo Teravainen both at even strength and with the man advantage. Using him alone, or in a duo, is fine tonight in tournaments.

Ryan Hartman (MIN vs. ARI): DraftKings – $5,600 | FanDuel – $5,300

He is not a household name but Ryan Hartman has an interesting history. From 2016 to 19, his age-22 to -24 seasons, his shot rate was in the 85th percentile of the league but was closer to the 70th percentile in scoring because he could not really finish at the same level. He was traded for a first-round pick to Nashville, and eventually signed in Minnesota. His shot rate was fine in his first year there, 2019-20, but his shooting percentage reached a career-low 7.9%. That rebounded last year, but his shot rate cratered to a career-low, so his goals did not rebound. It was the COVID-shortened season and there was a lot of turmoil, so he can be forgiven for a lesser 50-game performance. His shot rate has rebounded this year, and he is shooting 17.4%, so he is on pace for over 40 goals. Maybe it is a bit high, but this guy did have a shot rate that would give him 30-goal potential not too long ago.

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The lack of top power play minutes is an issue in a matchup against a team with an abysmal penalty kill like Arizona. But he does get secondary minutes, and he is skating on a line with the team’s most talented winger in Kirill Kaprizov. All this with a shot rate over three per game makes him appealing against a woeful Arizona squad in all formats.

Winger

Taylor Hall (BOS vs. DET): DraftKings – $4,200 | FanDuel – $5,800

The suspension to Brad Marchand should mean a top-line promotion for Taylor Hall. At the very least, he should be moved up to the top power-play unit in Marchand’s absence. That alone would be a big move for a guy who is priced very reasonably across the industry tonight.

We do not have much of a sample for the particular trio of Hall-Bergeron-Pastrnak because since being traded there last year, Hall has skated on the second virtually the entire time. He literally has a handful of shifts on the top and third line. All the same, Hall’s play-driving numbers remain very strong this year, so he should fit on one of the league’s best top lines just fine if that is where he ends up.

The matchup tonight is not particularly tough. The Red Wings are a mid-pack team on the penalty kill this month, for one. The top line for Detroit has also seen their defensive numbers slide about 15% this month compared to the first few weeks of the season, allowing nearly three goals per 60 minutes. They are very good offensively, but allow a lot at the other end, and that is good for Hall.

At his price with his expected role, Hall is fine by himself in all formats. Just watch for line combinations, as the team does have more than just Hall who can move to the top line. Expect him to get the power-play role, regardless, though, and more ice time in general, making him appealing, especially on DraftKings where he is so cheap. That low price makes him one of the top winger values on the slate today by Awesemo’s projections.

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Jesper Bratt (NJ vs. SJ): DraftKings – $4,600 | FanDuel – $5,300

Perhaps one of the worst-kept secrets in NHL DFS has been the wonderful success of New Jersey’s second line, which includes Jesper Bratt: 73 shot attempts, 5.2 goals, 3.4 expected goals per 60 minutes in a 124-minute sample. Those are just monster numbers, and the season is six weeks old. It has helped Bratt to a great start on the year with five goals and 17 points in 19 games. He is also averaging 2.8 shots per game, a career high.

Bratt’s line will get the second line from San Jose, and that line has had their struggles all year: 47.6% shot share, 43.9% expected goal share, and nearly four goals against per 60 minutes. This is quite the advantageous matchup for Bratt tonight with San Jose visiting.

The question is how to use him. His price as come up as DraftKings (and seemingly the DFS community) have caught up to them. It probably pushes him out of cash consideration, but he is on radars in tournaments, by himself or in a stack. As Hall is one of the top winger values on the slate, Bratt grades out to the best winger value over $4,000 tonight by Awesemo’s DraftKings projections.

Bratt was one of the top options showing up in our lineup optimizer today. Check out Bratt and all of our other free NHL DFS picks in our FanDuel NHL cheat sheet.

Owen Tippett (FLA vs. WSH): DraftKings – $2,800 | FanDuel – $4,300

The young winger was moved up to Florida’s top power-play unit in their last game and remained there in practice. This is great news for him and his fantasy value. His problem has long been his role, stuffed down the lineup with secondary power play minutes. The reality is, Owen Tippett shoots more often than Aleksander Barkov, on a per-minute basis, for his career at five-on-five. He is also third among the team’s forwards in shot rate with the man advantage over the last two seasons. More ice time is exactly what a player with this profile needs, and that it is power-play ice time is great news. Just beware that “more ice time” is relative here and that means 14 to 15 minutes rather than 12 to 13. He is on the top line at even strength as well, so the stars are all aligning here, as the entire top line is perfectly correlated.

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The line’s price and their correlation will make them popular tonight with optimizers and the like. That does not mean Tippett should be ignored, though. His price makes him a one-off target in any kind of contest, and ownership is not high enough to be of any real concern.


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Defensemen

Zach Werenski (CBJ at NSH): DraftKings – $6,800 | FanDuel – $6,200

The sheer volume of Zach Werenski’s ice time just forces shots and blocks into his profile. He does not do a lot of either, on a per-minute basis, but skating over 26 minutes a night has helped him to five DraftKings shot bonuses and four DraftKings block bonuses on the year (including one game with both). He has four multi-point games on the year, so he is clearly a threat for all the bonuses on any given night because of his ice time and role.

Nashville is the seventh-most penalized team on the season. That should give Werenski ample power play time tonight. Sneakily, Columbus’s top power-play unit has been very good this year, and the early returns with Adam Boqvist are even better. Werenski on the road with a cheaper power play option next to him should get overlooked. He makes a great tournament one-off tonight, especially on FanDuel, where he is priced outside the top-5 defensemen, yet Awesemo has him as the second-best value for any defenseman over $6,000.

Sean Durzi (LAK vs. ANA): DraftKings – $3,200 | FanDuel – $4,600

Out of nowhere, Sean Durzi has jumped to the top power-play unit in Los Angeles. He is not getting a lot of ice time – 16 to 17 minutes a night – but anyone running a top power-play unit is worthy of consideration for tournaments.

The Anaheim penalty kill has not been good this month, coming in the bottom-10 by expected goals against and 21st by shots allowed. It has been unbelievable, and wholly unsustainable, .982 goaltending that has saved them. No goaltender can maintain anywhere close to that rate on the penalty kill, which puts Los Angeles and Durzi on the map tonight, though he is much tougher to fit on FanDuel because of his price.

One of Durzi’s teammates was popping in the Awesemo models today. Find out who that is by checking out our DraftKings NHL DFS cheat sheet today.

Goalie

Ilya Samsonov (WSH at FLA): DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $7,600

Going into Florida is a tough matchup, but they are still without Barkov, their star center. The team is still good, but it is a big offensive piece missing, and the Panthers are maintaining a very high shot rate. This puts Ilya Samsonov into focus, as he should see a lot of volume on the road tonight for Washington. He is also coming in with low ownership at a low price, and those are the goalies to target in tournaments.

Top NHL DFS Stacks Tonight

NSH1: Forsberg – Granlund – Duchene

Not only are these three players skating together at five-on-five, but they are also skating together on the power play. As a trio, going back to last year, they have generated north of 60 shot attempts, three expected goals, and five actual goals per 60 minutes. They will get a high-paced matchup against Columbus’s top line tonight and that is the kind of matchup built for DFS.

DAL PP2: Gurianov – Benn – Suter

This power-play unit for Dallas has been excellent together, producing 117 shot attempts and nearly 12 goals per 60 minutes on the season. Carolina remains the most penalized team in hockey, allowing four power plays per game. The second unit should get their opportunity tonight and they have been good. At their price, it is a nice filler stack to go with main ones. If saving salary with Ryan Suter is not necessary, substituting Miro Heiskanen in his place is just fine.

*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey

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The DFS rankings NHL for fantasy points and value are derived directly from Alex's own hockey DFS projections. Find more DraftKings DFS NHL and NHL DFS picks tonight as well as the best NHL DFS tonight. Initial NHL ownership projections DFS for main slates will be posted daily by 4 p.m. The NHL projections DFS model was created and is maintained by Alex Baker and Jake Hari.

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