There are just six games on the NHL slate today but there is a very good mix of top-end options as well as lower-tier values. This column will use Awesemo’s premium tools and data, including fantasy hockey projections, which are free for everyone to view today. Subscribers should check Discord late in the day to see if there are any updates. We will go position by position to locate some of the best NHL DFS picks tonight for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy hockey lineups.
NHL DFS Picks Today: Top Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Auston Matthews (TOR at CBJ): DraftKings – $9,300; FanDuel – $10,000
It should be noted that this is a back-to-back on the road for Toronto, having played last night in Montreal. With that said, there are only a couple of very expensive centers across the sites and he is one of them. His talent clearly warrants attention, as does all the injuries to Columbus’s goaltending.
Going into Columbus means matching up against the Boone Jenner line, and that line has struggled defensively this season. The fact that they are also very good offensively masks the fact they are allowing nearly 40% more scoring chances than they are taking. That is what could make this advantageous for Auston Matthews and company tonight, a line that is generating nearly double the scoring chances they are allowing on the season. There is a very good reason Matthews leads all Awesemo’s projections, regardless of position.
Cash game players will likely need to consider Matthews given his high shot volume and the matchup against a weaker defensive opponent. In tournaments, his line is very expensive and that should temper ownership a bit. There are several teams playing tonight that do not have expensive players littered throughout, and that provides the cheap opportunities to use Matthews and his linemates. Power-play stacking may not be ideal for this particular matchup given Columbus does not take a lot of penalties, but it is one way to stack cheaper players than Mitch Marner.
As always, the Awesemo NHL DFS optimizer was loving Matthews as one of the top NHL picks today. However, playing Matthews will require throwing some value plays into NHL lineups tonight. Check out who is popping in the projections as some of the best value plays on the entire slate by looking at the DraftKings Fantasy Hockey Cheat Sheet and FanDuel Fantasy Hockey Cheat Sheet tonight.
Joel Eriksson Ek (MIN at OTT): DraftKings – $5,100; FanDuel – $5,800
When Minnesota goes on the road, Joel Eriksson Ek tends to play fewer minutes. The reason for that is he plays shutdown roles at home, which gets him out against opposing top competition. That will not happen here, but it is still a great matchup for him.
Ottawa has seen their penalty killing fluctuate through the year, but they are in the bottom-10 in several penalty killing categories over the last seven weeks. They are getting phenomenal goaltending and that is not something that can be relied upon on the penalty kill every game. Minnesota, meanwhile, is scoring among the elite power plays in the league since the holiday break. A road matchup is not preferred but this is a good special team spot for the Wild.
The Minnesota pivot is averaging over three shots per game, which gives him a nice peripheral floor to work with, and also brings bonuses into play on DraftKings. His role will see him playing against the depth from the Senators at even strength tonight, and the power play has a decent matchup. He is fine to use by himself in tournaments given his role on the team, or as part of a power-play stack, given his savings over Hartman on DraftKings.
Winger
Timo Meier (SJ at ANA): DraftKings – $7,500; FanDuel – $9,600
While Timo Meier’s point pace has dropped a bit of late, it is not necessarily his problem, as he has eight goals in his last 10 games, averaging 4.9 shots per game. It is that he has just two assists, because his linemates have three goals in their last 10 games. Meier is not a play due to his assist rate, though, but rather for that shot rate and scoring prowess.
There could be line matching concerns here, but Ryan Getzlaf is injured, and the Ducks sometimes use their third line in a shutdown role. At any rate, the Ducks are a bottom-10 team across the board defensively in calendar 2022, so the matchups likely do not matter much here. Meier has been one of the elite shot generators in the league and this is a good spot for him.
Meier’s line is generating 3.3 expected goals per 60 minutes this year and 3.6 actual goals, both very good marks. Going into Anaheim is not difficult at five-on-five, and they are also allowing the most expected goals per 60 minutes when down a man. The price appears steep for a road matchup, but this is a very good offensive line and an elite shot producer. He is viable both in cash games and in tournaments.
Connor Brown (OTT vs. MIN): DraftKings – $3,900; FanDuel – $5,100
Minnesota coming into town presents a difficult matchup for Ottawa as the Wild are a good defensive team. But the reality here is that the Senators and Wild have been generating roughly the same number of shot attempts and scoring chances at five-on-five going back several weeks. The injuries to the top of the lineup for the Sens has dampened things, but they have also given Connor Brown a huge role, skating at least 20 minutes in eight straight games.
Brown is often used in a shutdown role and home and tonight that means facing Kirill Kaprizov’s line. That trio is still scoring at a great clip, but they are also allowing 2.7 expected goals against per 60 minutes, and 2.9 actual goals against. They are dynamic offensively but give it up in the defensive end as well, and Brown will get a lot of minutes against this line.
The price has come up a bit but that is largely a function of how much ice time he is getting. Given his unique role on the top power-play unit from his even-strength trio, he is fine to use either by himself or as part of a stack in tournaments.
Kyle Palmieri (NYI at SEA): DraftKings – $2,900; FanDuel – $3,800
The big news here is that Kyle Palmieri jumped to the top line for the Islanders. That makes for a very cheap player that is going to skate with Mathew Barzal at even strength and also get some power-play time to boot.
Like many Islanders forward combinations this year, this particular iteration of the top line has not been very good defensively. They have been good offensively, though, generating 32 scoring chances per 60 minutes, leading to 2.8 goals per 60 as well. Considering this team is closer to 2.3 goals per 60 over the last several weeks, it kind of shows how rare it is to score even at a reasonable rate on this team. But they are, and that gives us interest in Palmieri as a punt option. They are also facing a Seattle team that played last night in Vancouver, so there could be some rest issues.
Though Seattle does not allow a lot defensively, they do not create much offensively either, and giving the puck to Barzal and his friends seems like a recipe for a bad night. At his price, Palmieri is a fine punt for anyone looking to play expensive tournament stacks/skaters this evening.
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Defensemen
MacKenzie Weegar (FLA vs. NSH): DraftKings – $4,600; FanDuel – $5,700
This is a good power-play matchup for the Panthers given all the penalties that the Nashville Predators take. MacKenzie Weegar does not play the power play, but he does rack up peripheral stats, and his recent price drop on DraftKings is worth noting for that reason. He is averaging two blocks and 2.4 shots per game on the season, a testament to that peripheral prowess. It brings the shot and block bonuses into range for Weegar, which is important for a guy being priced where he is.
Florida is one of the top offensive teams in hockey and this particular blue liner has seen a price decline on DraftKings that makes him appealing here. On FanDuel, his teammate Gustav Forsling ($4,000) is a better option, given he is much cheaper and runs the second power-play unit.
Vladislav Gavrikov (CBJ vs. TOR): DraftKings – $2,900; FanDuel – $4,300
The reason for using Vladislav Gavrikov here tonight is for the same reason as Weegar: peripherals. That makes him a better option on DraftKings tonight, given how cheap he is and the upside here.
On the season, Gavrikov has nine games with at least three blocked shots and 47% of them have multiple blocked shots. The Blue Jackets are at home to the Leafs tonight, the team generating the sixth-most shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five since Jan. 1. That should give him plenty of opportunities to rack up some blocked shots.
For an option on FanDuel, aside from the cheaper Forsling, Jared Spurgeon has a reasonable price for a top power-play defenseman in a good matchup against Ottawa.
Top NHL DFS Stack
STL2: Buchnevich-Thomas-Tarasenko; 10.4% Top-2 Stack%
St. Louis has not used this particular trio much over the last couple of months, but they were used a fair bit earlier in the year. In roughly 110 minutes together, they are generating 67 shot attempts, 3.2 expected goals, and 4.9 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. They have been dominant at both ends of the ice and that could be great news heading into Philadelphia, getting depth matchups. They may all be skating the same power-play unit as well, which would be tremendous for their fantasy value (because Vladimir Tarasenko missed their last game, this is not confirmed, but it is an educated guess).
ANA2: Zegras – Henrique – Silfverberg; 7.1% Top-2 Stack%
Trevor Zegras has not played a lot with this particular trio but the key here is they will often be left to their own devices against the depth of the San Jose Sharks. The duo of Zegras and Adam Henrique has generated 3.1 expected goals per 60 minutes in their 150 minutes together while Zegras and Jakob Silfverberg are sitting at 2.7. They are at home to a San Jose roster that does not have much outside of the top line, and Anaheim gets the home matchups tonight.
*Additional Data from Natural Stat Trick
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