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NFL Betting Picks: Week 14 Monday Night Football NFL Odds
NFL Prop Bet: Lamar Jackson Over 54.5 Rushing Yards -110 (BetMGM, as of 9 a.m. EST)
We close out Week 14 of the NFL with a Monday Night Football matchup out of the AFC North. The Browns host the Ravens in a game with major playoff implication for both teams. This is a rematch of the Week 1 matchup in which Baltimore won 38-6, but Vegas expects a much more competitive game this time around. The Ravens are 3-point road favorites, and the game has an over/under of 45.5 in this one, all of which adds up to a back-and-forth affair.
In the prop world, I am going to Lamar Jackson and his rushing ability. His over/under for yards rushing is 54.5, and I believe in a game like this he will be able to clear that mark either through massive volume or big-play upside. We attacked this rushing prop last week on Tuesday Night Football, and Jackson had it wrapped up by halftime. He finished that game against the Cowboys with 13 carries for 94 yards, and I don’t think a similar line here is unreasonable.
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In Week 1 Jackson had 45 rushing yards against this Browns team on only seven carries due to the game getting out of hand. That shouldn’t be an issue here, and in his other three career starts against the Browns, Jackson had rushing totals of 103, 66 and 90 yards, all of which would cash this prop. He gets some additional weapons back on the outside, which should keep the Cleveland defense more honest. Regardless, Jackson is a matchup nightmare even if his passing has regressed.
Over 54.5 yards rushing at -110 is a more than reasonable price given Jackson’s ability on the ground. I wouldn’t be shocked to see either this yardage total increase or the juice to rise before kickoff. We are getting in at the right price in a game that Baltimore cannot afford to lose. I took this same logic against Dallas, and with this game being even more competitive, I think Jackson may pump up the rushing even more. If he has the volume, we will live with the results, especially at -110, where we do not have to lay additional juice to take a position. Fire up Jackson’s rushing prop again tonight and see what he can do in another must-win for the Ravens.
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