Weather could have a strong impact on Sunday, so consider making some late plays and/or adjustments depending on the info we have available. Green Bay and Cleveland are two places where wind may push me to under plays, but I’m going to focus on a few other strong spots that jump out to me. Using the help of OddsShopper to locate the best plays and prices, let’s analyze some NFL betting picks.
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NFL Picks & Predictions | Top NFL Bets
Kyler Murray Rushing Yards: Over 51.5 (-155)
Kyler Murray’s numbers as a pure rusher this season have been terrific, averaging 68 yards and a touchdown per game on the ground this season. He is fresh off a season-best 106 rushing yards on 11 carries last week against the Dolphins, and he’s now rushed for 67-plus yards in three straight and six of eight games on the season. On the surface this is a high number, but Murray’s been hitting well over this all season. The Bills have had issues giving up rushing yards to quarterbacks and should struggle to contain the shiftiest of them all.
The best number here is 51.5, available at DraftKings. However, the better value could be betting at William Hill. OddsShopper shows us the over on 53.5 juiced at -120, so saving 35 cents to give Murray two more rushing yards shouldn’t be much of an issue.
Robert Woods Receiving Yards: Over 59.5 (-143)
I’m on the over 54.5 in this game, but I also want some exposure to just how awful the Seattle secondary is. It’s on pace to be historically bad from a yardage standpoint, and it still is operating without several key players. Robert Woods has gone back and forth in terms of having big games this season, exceeding 60 yards in four of his eight games. But the matchup here is just too juicy. I expect Woods to rip off at least one big gainer and get there on volume the rest of the way.
It’s a similar situation here with the best number in terms of yards at DraftKings. But if you want to give a few extra yards to Woods and save 33 cents in juice, OddsShopper shows over 62.5 yards at -110 at BetMGM.
Baltimore Ravens -6.5 (-120)
The Patriots’ win over the Jets on Monday night was one of the least encouraging wins I’ve ever seen. The once-elite New England defense got torched by Joe Flacco and Breshad Perriman and stands zero chance against Lamar Jackson. Weather may be the only thing saving the Pats from this game turning into a massive blowout, but even a defensive game that features the run still heavily favors the Ravens. Baltimore won this game 37-20 at home last year against a then 8-0 Patriots team. This one should get ugly.
This one is showing 7’s across the board outside of FanDuel, so grab the hook there so we don’t push on the chance of a touchdown being the difference in this game. If you miss 6.5, I’d try and buy it at one of the other books for the -120 price.
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