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FREE MLB Picks and Parlays Today 7/22

Tyler Schmidt



With the All-Star break in the rear-view mirror, MLB is in the home stretch with a couple months left of the MLB season. There is a large 13-game slate on the docket tonight. Since it is Friday, we have a Prop Party Parlay to provide! This parlay features up to five player prop bets that’ll give you the best chance to win based on Stokastic simulations. The prop party is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community, and Alex “Awesemo” Baker — the world’s No. 1 daily fantasy player — uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge. For this piece, we will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.

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MLB Picks and Parlays Today 7/22

Julio Rodriguez O/U 0.5 Home Runs (-360) | Get Your FREE $200

Rookie Julio Rodriguez put on an absolute show at the Home Run Derby during the All-Star Break. He came in second place to Juan Soto in a duel of young hitting phenoms. The Mariners are coming off a 14-game win streak as they get set to host the Astros, who lead the AL West by 10 games. Rodriguez is tied with Eugenio Suarez for the team lead with 16 home runs and leads the Mariners in RBIs with 52. Despite being a rookie, Rodriguez has a very impressive .202 ISO and a .351 wOBA. An under home run bet is always “safe” and is the biggest favorite in this parlay. Jose Urquidy will take the mound for the Astros in an attempt to slow down this Mariners lineup. He has a career-worst 1.52 HR/9 and 4.09 ERA. Urquidy’s Statcast data is also very alarming, as he has a 43.6% hard-hit rate allowed. Regardless of Urquidy’s struggles, banking on an under home run bet is very profitable. This bet has an 86% xWin rate, so take the under and move on.

Best MLB Pick Today: Julio Rodriguez UNDER 0.5 Home Runs (-360)

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Logan Webb O/U 4.5 Strikeouts (-120) | Get Your FREE $200

After a stellar 2021 campaign, Logan Webb has picked up right where he left off with a very solid 2022 season. Webb has a career-best 2.83 ERA and a 9-3 record in 19 starts. A tough matchup awaits Webb as he goes on the road to take on the always dangerous Dodgers lineup. However, Carlos Rodon was able to take care of business in Los Angeles yesterday, and Webb has a 21.4% strikeout rate and ranks second on the team behind Rodon with 101 strikeouts on the season. Getting over five strikeouts has been a breeze for Webb recently. He has gone over this prop in 10 of last 12 starts. The Dodgers rank second in runs scored and only 18th in strikeout rate, but this is still a bet on Webb’s consistency and upside. Stokastic’s MLB Model has Webb projected for 5.6 strikeouts this evening.

Best MLB Pick Today: Logan Webb OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)

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best MLB picks and parlays today

Cole Irvin O/U 4.5 Strikeouts (-115) | Get Your FREE $200

The Athletics will trot out Cole Irvin for tonight’s matchup against the Rangers. Capturing strikeouts has been a struggle for Irvin, as he has only a 16.1% strikeout rate this season. As a team, the Athletics rank 24th in K/9 and have the eighth-highest ERA in the league. A 33-62 record is also the second lowest in the league; this Athletics team is not good. Irvin is an underdog despite being at home against the 42-29 Rangers. The Rangers are coming off an 8-0 victory against the Marlins last night. They rank just outside the top 10 in strikeout rate as a team, which is the only positive for Irvin going into this matchup. He has four or fewer strikeouts in three straight starts and in 13 of his 16 starts this season. Stokastic projects Irvin for 3.9 strikeouts and an xWin rate on this strikeout prop of 65%.

Best MLB Pick Today: Cole Irvin UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)

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Tyler Wells O/U 3.5 Strikeouts (+105) | Get Your FREE $200

Another pitcher who really struggles getting strikeouts is Orioles starter Tyler Wells. In only his second season in the major leagues, Wells has a 17.2% strikeout rate in 18 starts. Last season, Wells was primarily used in the bullpen, where he pitched in 44 games and had a very impressive 29.0% strikeout rate. It seems as though opposing batters catch on pretty quickly to what Wells is throwing, as they have no trouble making contact. However, Wells does a great job at limiting hard contact and keeping the ball in the yard, with a 1.05 HR/9. Leading the team with seven wins, Wells won six straight games before a loss to the Rays in his most recent start. The major downside to this spot for Wells is the matchup against the Yankees, who lead the league in runs scored, ISO, wRC+ and several other hitting stats. This will be his fourth start against the Yankees this season, as Wells has averaged three strikeouts per game in his other three starts. Betting the juice on this Wells strikeout prop provides a lot of value, especially when this under prop has hit in 11 of his 18 starts.

Best MLB Pick Today: Tyler Wells UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+105)

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Lucas Giolito O/U 5.5 Strikeouts (+120) | Get Your FREE $200

Lucas Giolito will take the mound for the White Sox, and this over 5.5 strikeout prop is by far the biggest underdog of the parlay. Giolito will draw a home matchup against the Guardians as a -158 favorite, with the Guardians only implied for 3.9 runs tonight. This is the toughest matchup for strikeouts that an opposing pitcher will get. The Guardians have an 18.6% team strikeout rate, which is the best in the league. Giolito has faced the Guardians twice this season and had five strikeouts in both games, barely missing this under. He won both games, as he allowed only one earned run in 13.1 innings. It is safe to say that Giolito thrives in this matchup. Stokastic’s MLB Model has him projected for 5.8 strikeouts tonight, which is just over this line. Giolito has hit this over in 11 of his 16 starts and has a 27.1% strikeout rate. Hopefully he can do it once more to round out this Prop Party Parlay.

Best MLB Pick Today: Lucas Giolito OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)

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