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FREE MLB Picks and Parlays Today 7/27

Tyler Schmidt



Splits slates are tough with the Parlay Builder, but for tonight there are two props starting at 3:10 p.m. ET and two at 7:00 p.m. ET. Make sure to take that into account when taking this Dog Days Wednesday strikeout prop. These are the best bets for underdogs if you like to fade the favorites and cheer for the upset at high odds. For this piece, we will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.

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MLB Picks and Parlays Today 7/27

Tyler Wells O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Get Your FREE $200 NOW

Leading off this Dog Day Parlay is the Orioles’ leader in wins, Tyler Wells. In his second season in the major leagues and first season as a starting pitcher, Wells has a 7-6 record and a 3.69 ERA. Where Wells has struggled the most is finishing batters. He has a 17.3% strikeout rate and has only struck out five or more in 2 of 19 starts. Granted, two of those high-strikeout games came in the month of July, so maybe he is finding something? In his last three starts, Wells has allowed 11 earned runs in only 14.2 innings, with two losses. A matchup with the Rays, who have lost four straight games and have a top-five strikeout rate, could be just what the doctor ordered. However, Stokastic’s MLB Model has Wells projected for only 3.9 strikeouts, and this prop has an xWin of 65%.

Best MLB Pick Today: Tyler Wells UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)

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Max Scherzer O/U 7.5 Strikeouts | Get Your FREE $200 NOW

Taking the under on a prolific strikeout pitcher like Max Scherzer is always a little risky. Despite being 37 years old, Scherzer is still pitching at an elite level in his first season with the Mets. He has a 33.8% strikeout rate, paired with an extremely impressive 0.89 WHIP. Scherzer has gone over this strikeout prop line in four straight games and in 7 of his 12 starts. However, he will have to deliver some of his best stuff in this matchup against the Yankees, who lead the league in runs, home runs and ISO, all by a comfortable margin. Their strikeout rate is average among the league, so this is a dangerous spot for Scherzer. This prop in the parlay will be one of the closest. Taking the under for strikeouts is very much a risk, but on this Dog Day Wednesday, it is a risk willing to take against a very powerful Yankees lineup.

Best MLB Pick Today: Max Scherzer UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (+105)

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Andrew Heaney O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Get Your FREE $200 NOW

There are two afternoon pitchers to target on this Wednesday, and the first is Andrew Heaney. This will be only his fourth start of the season and his second since April. Heaney has yet to reach 90 pitches in any of his three starts, but he has been dominant in his short outings. A ridiculous one earned run in 15.1 innings pitched is good for a 0.59 ERA. He has paired that with a very high 36.5% strikeout rate, as he has averaged 7.7 strikeouts per game. Taking this under feels awfully risky given how well Heaney has pitched this season in his limited starts. This will once again be his first start in over a month against the Nationals, who have the second-lowest strikeout rate in the league. At only 19.3% this season, the Nationals simply don’t strike out. It is an interesting spot for this prop, which could go either way. Take the value on the under.

Best MLB Pick Today: Andrew Heaney UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+110)

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Antonio Senzatela O/U 2.5 Strikeouts | Get Your FREE $200 NOW

With only three strikeouts to get the over, it seems like a reach to take the under until diving deep into Antonio Senzatela’s stats. He is pitching at Coors Field, which already limits his ability. Senzatela has an extremely low 9.8% strikeout rate at home this season while allowing a .402 wOBA; those are egregious numbers for a starting pitcher. This season, Senzatela has a career-low 12.7% strikeout rate, while the White Sox rank 24th in team strikeout rate. The White Sox are implied to score 6.2 runs in this matchup, which could lead to a shorter outing for Senzatela. This is an absurdly low line, but there is a lot of value betting on the White Sox getting to Senzatela early to go with this under prop.

Best MLB Pick Today: Antonio Senzatela UNDER 2.5 Strikeouts (+110)

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