NASCAR BETTING: 2022 Busch Light Clash Bets Bets, Picks & Predictions

The NASCAR season kicks off this weekend with an interesting event — the 2022 Busch Light Clash at the Los Angeles Coliseum. The short-track race will go off on Sunday, Feb. 6. With it being a more unique setup for this race in Los Angeles, let’s go over some of the best NASCAR betting odds on the board find some of the best expert NASCAR betting picks for this weekend’s race.

Expert NASCAR Betting Odds & Picks | Busch Light Clash

Betting Odds for a Peculiar Event

The Busch Light Clash used to be a “regular” event. This version of the Clash for 2022 is anything but…

For years, the Busch Light Clash was the unofficial kickoff to the new NASCAR Cup Series season. Drivers (who met certain criteria based on events from the past season) would have their starting position randomly assigned to them, not that it mattered because the race was always held at Daytona International Speedway, and after a set number of laps, a winner would be crowned along with a fat check.

For this season, NASCAR has transitioned away from the 2.5-mile superspeedway of Daytona to a quarter mile, slightly banked oval created inside the Los Angeles Coliseum. On the Saturday night prior to the Clash, single-car qualifying runs will be held to set the running order for Sunday’s heat races. The top four finishers from each heat race will advance to the Clash event. To fill out the remaining six spots (only 23 cars will compete in the Clash itself), two final heat races consisting of 50 laps will be held and the top three finishers from those final heat races will advance to the Clash. The final spot on the grid is reserved for the driver who finished the highest in the 2021 points standings who has not already transferred into the Busch Light Clash. For a more thorough explanation of these rules and schedule, be sure to check out the Jayski Busch Light Clash page.

Sorting Through the Betting Odds This Weekend

This, in turn, leaves a lot of variance in the air to sort around. Despite this variance, DraftKings Sportsbook has already posted outright, top-three, top-five, driver props and race props for this event. Currently, with nine days left until this race, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. sit tied atop the leaderboard at +550 followed closely by Chase Elliott (+600), Kyle Busch (+650), and Joey Logano (+700). This top-five features three of the four championship contenders, drivers who were all competitive at Phoenix – yet oddly, the name missing is that of the driver who won at Phoenix, the 2021 champion Kyle Larson (+750).

Granted, there will be practice numbers to sort through on the Saturday prior to the Clash, but for betters who want to jump on these early odds before books begin to adjust for on-track activity; by what metrics are betters presuming that one driver is better than another in this new package? This leaves betters with two scenarios; rely on driver’s past results at shorter/ flatter venues or parse through the practice data in the latest practice session at Phoenix. Regardless of the angle one chooses, let’s go down each avenue and see which direction the numbers point for those looking to get in on an early number.

The Latest Sports Betting Content from Stokastic Odds

The Generation Six Car

From 2013 through 2021, the Generation Six car ran through several different aero and downforce iterations and adjustments that are all summarized here. Needless to say, this vehicle did not remain static for long as NASCAR was always looking to adjust the way it drove and handled in hopes of improving racing. Thus with an ever-changing car, gauging drivers by how they did over this time span could be a good indication of performance as they transition into a new vehicle.

With every race from 2014 through 2021 at the four flatter, shorter venues (Phoenix, Martinsville, New Hampshire, and Richmond) combined (59 total races) the following drivers stand out:

Kyle Busch – 8 victories, 29 top-fives, 43 top-10s, 108.6 driver rating, an average finish of 8.2
Kevin Harvick – 8 victories, 29 top-fives, 45 top-10s, 108.3 driver rating, an average finish of 8.5
Martin Truex Jr. – 7 victories, 23 top-fives, 37 top-10s, 103.1 driver rating, an average finish of 10.2
Joey Logano – 6 victories, 29 top-fives, 44 top-10s, 104.5 driver rating, an average finish of 9.2
Brad Keselowski – 6 victories, 29 top-fives, 44 top-10s, 106.9 driver rating, an average finish of 9.3
Denny Hamlin – 4 victories, 27 top-fives, 37 top-10s, 102.3 driver rating, an average finish of 10.4

Those six drivers account for 39 of the 59 victories (eight of those wins are held by drivers no longer active) and are the only six drivers in the 2022 Busch Light Clash field with an average finish of 10th or better. Of those six drivers, Harvick and Keselowski are the only ones that could be considered longshots as they both sit at +1800. The case can easily be made for both “wanting” to win this exhibition event; Harvick to prove that he is not washed and for Keselowski to make a firm and an eventful start to his tenure at Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing. Truth be told, Truex’s numbers would probably rival that of Busch and Harvick had he not spent the majority of this era driving for Furniture Row.

Regardless, these 59 races can be taken and spliced up further into whichever individual track one thinks this creation in the Coliseum better represents it. For research purposes, if the data is narrowed down to just Martinsville from 2014-2021, Truex leads this pack in wins (three), followed by Busch and Keselowski (two) but it is Brad Keselowski with 11 top-five finishes in those 16 starts that deserves attention. Meanwhile, in this narrowed gaze, Harvick falls down the board to zero wins and just two top-five finishes. Betting Keselowski for the victory, a top-three (+425), or even the top-five finish (+195) make too much sense in light of these numbers.

Phoenix Practice Numbers

Earlier this week, NASCAR held its final practice session, for the Generation Seven vehicle, at Phoenix. Although the data was screwed up at the time, NASCAR has fixed whatever issues there were and rereleased the data. With a few months of other practice sessions under teams’ belts, this is the closest thing NASCAR fans will have to what the actual product will look like in Los Angeles.

In the first session, Kyle Larson posted the single-fastest lap at 131.728 mph followed by Tyler Reddick‘s speed of 131.033 mph, and then Joey Logano at 130.909 mph. On the second day, Ryan Blaney ascended to the top of the speed chart at 131.907 mph followed by Joey Logano once again at 131.738 mph, and then fellow Ford driver Chase Briscoe at 131.502 mph. The interesting constant from both days was Joey Logano posting top-two speeds.

Why do these practice numbers matter? Speed is going to dictate who gets to start out front in the qualifying heat races on Sunday. Logically, the easiest path to victory in the 150-lap feature race will be starting out front, preferably the pole. This race could see a copious amount of caution flags thrown for wrecks. The best way to avoid this attrition will be to get out in front of the rest of the pack. If Logano can carry over this speed from Phoenix into Los Angeles, he could easily find himself out front to start the race and his outright number should see him rocket from the fifth-highest odds to the top.

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com