NASCAR Betting Picks for Toyota Owners 400

NASCAR racing returns to Richmond this Sunday for the Toyota Owners 400. Let’s recap line movement for this week’s outright favorites, some top-five plays and value NASCAR betting picks and props for this 400-lap event.

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NASCAR Betting Picks for Toyota Owners 400 | April 18

Toyota Owners 400 Favorites

The week opened with Martinsville winner Martin Truex Jr. as the frontrunner. That’s where this week currently stands, with his odds still at +400. With no finish worse than third in his past four visits to Richmond, it’s hard to find someone else in the field matching that sort of high-end consistency. Starting alongside Truex on the front row will be his JGR teammate Denny Hamlin, who led the most laps last weekend at Martinsville. Hamlin has seen his outright shaved off a little going from +650 to +600 as of Friday morning.

Jumping from seventh in winner odds to third is Kyle Larson, now sitting at +700 after opening at +1000. Larson has received a bevy of attention, as early betters were eager to jump on this number. With three top-10 finishes in his past four Richmond races and a win in the late summer race of 2017, don’t be surprised to see Larson jump to the second-highest odds to win.

Much like last week, favorites for this race are going to boil down to just a handful of recognizable names. If the outright bet isn’t Hamlin, Truex , Chase Elliott, Joey Logano, or Brad Keselowski, there will be little interest. Only so many drivers possess the skill and vehicle to win in the 750-horsepower package. Everyone else is peaking with a top-five finish. As per favorites for this week, the chalk pick of Truex is at the top. Although his past four previous finishes at Richmond had all come under the lights, the forecast for Sunday looks to play into Truex’s wheelhouse.

Top 5 NASCAR Betting Picks

With only so many drivers having a chance to win, it limits any long-odds driver to finish in the top five. For example, DraftKings Sportsbook is currently offering +1000 for all three of Ryan Newman, Bubba Wallace and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. That is not happening out of a wreck fest, and that does not happen often at Richmond.

If looking to add a top five bet to the card on Sunday, odds in the +200 to +500 range would be excellent. On the shorter end, one play would be to go back to William Byron at +255. Since his win at Homestead, Byron has failed to finish outside of the top eight, including fourth last week at Martinsville. While his past finishes at Richmond paint a meager picture, he has been a different driver with crew chief Randy Fugle in his ear this season. The same speed everyone is foaming at the mouth over for Larson and Elliott will be powering this No. 24 car. Chase the driver with the best odds of all three.

On the higher end, Austin Dillon at +500 cannot be ruled out. Dillon’s career of late at Richmond might sneak up, but Dillon has three top-six finishes in his last four Richmond races. Starting 11th will scare people off in DFS, but hopefully this track position will aid him in staying on the lead lap and fighting for that top-five near the end.

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Race Props

Here is a list of interesting head-to-heads or props being offered by DraftKings Sportsbook.

Best Finishing Position – Race: Christopher Bell -125 over Alex Bowman
Best Finishing Position – Race: William Byron +100 over Ryan Blaney
Manufacturer of Winning Car: Toyota +155
Number of Drivers to Finish on the Lead Lap: Under 18.5 -134
Top Ford Car: Joey Logano +245
Best Finish Group F: Chris Buescher +275

This week’s parlay is combining both NASCAR races this weekend. Kyle Busch is a considerable -130 favorite to win at Richmond in the Trucks race on Saturday. Throw a dart in the dark and say that Busch has pit road issues and John Hunter Nemechek wins. Combining his +750 odds with Joey Logano’s +245 odds to be the top Ford, that is +2833 odds paying out $146.63 on a $5 bet. Busch’s presence has inflated Nemechek’s odds, and for a minimal investment, bettors could have a nice sweat going into Sunday.

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com