The big question about tonight’s two-game first-round NBA playoffs matchups is can Golden State and Milwaukee follow Boston and Miami into the second round? Both the Warriors and Bucks hold a 3-1 series lead heading home. The Warriors could not close out the Nuggets the last time out, while the Bucks have won two straight over the Bulls.
This daily NBA article will examine the best betting picks and NBA player prop bets today. With OddsShopper, bettors can maximize their profits and see the best chances with the highest expected return on investment. OddsShopper can find which sportsbooks offer the best prices for these prop bets. The following are the three best NBA bets for April 27.
Best NBA Bets and Player Props
Bucks Spread (-12) Over Bulls
The main question for Chicago is, do they fold up like a tent? The Bulls will be without Zach LaVine (health protocols) and Alex Caruso (concussion) tonight.
Heading into the series, it was thought that the Bucks might sweep the Bulls as Chicago struggled mightily down the stretch due to dreadful defense. The Bulls hunkered down defensively in the first two games and stole Game 2, but the last two games have been blowouts by the Bucks.
Milwaukee came into the playoffs as perhaps the most feared offensive team. While the Bucks have tallied at least 110 points in each of the last three outings, they are averaging just over 108 points a game on 46.6% shooting from the field. The Bucks are shooting it well from deep, connecting on 14 3’s a game while shooting at a 37.8% clip, though they are turning it over quite a bit. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been terrific and Jrue Holiday is averaging 18 points, 6.3 assists and five rebounds a game. Meanwhile, Bobby Portis has been doing well on the glass and has recorded three double-doubles in the series. Khris Middleton will miss his third straight game.
The reason that the Bucks are up in the series is because of their defense. Milwaukee owns a playoff-best defensive rating of 94.2 as they are also limiting Chicago to 39% shooting from the field along with 28% from the 3-point line. They have kept DeMar DeRozan and LaVine in check for the most part and have grabbed nearly 81% of all of the rebounds on the defensive end. The Bulls have been held to under 96 points in three of the four games.
Milwaukee is 7-1 against Chicago this season, with four of the victories being by double figures.
Nuggets Spread (+9) Over Warriors
This was supposed to be a classic, hard-fought series, but the Warriors have shown how potent their offense can be when they are fully healthy. They rank first in offensive rating, effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage.
Golden State averages 122 points and nearly 16 3-pointers a game in the series. They have played exceptionally well at home and continued that trend during the first two games of the series, which they won by an average of 18 points. Stephen Curry leads the way with 27.5 points on 51.4% shooting from the field and 38.9% from the 3-point line to go along with 5.5 assists. Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins join Curry on the list of players averaging at least 14 points and shooting 50% from the floor and 38% from deep. While the Warriors are expected to and should win tonight, OddsShopper gives the Nuggets a 54% chance of covering with an expected ROI of 10%.
Denver played much better the last two games than they did when the series opened in San Francisco. The Nuggets shot the ball exceptionally well in Game 3 and Game 4, connecting on nearly 53% of their attempts, though the biggest difference was getting to the free throw as they attempted 29 more free throws at home than on the road. Nikola Jokic has gotten his numbers though he will need to be as efficient as he was the past two contests if the Nuggets have any hopes of winning tonight. The Nuggets will also need a couple of players to step up like Aaron Gordon and Monte Morris did the last time out. Plus, they will have to do a better job protecting the ball.
Denver and Golden State have split their eight meetings this year and just three of those contests have been decided by 9 or more points.
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JaMychal Green Over 2.5 Rebounds
Green is a physical, hard-nosed player who loves to rebound. While Green only has accumulated two boards in 26 minutes over the last two games, it is expected that he will have more opportunities tonight as the Nuggets and Warriors both shot the ball very well in Denver. He hit 10 boards in just 33 minutes of action in Game 1 and Game 2. He also averaged 4.8 rebounds over 16 minutes of playing time a game against the Warriors during the regular season. He is projected for 3.74 rebounds tonight. OddsShopper gives the over a 72% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 25%.
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