PGA DFS Fades & Pivots Genesis Invitational: What's Wrong w/ Tom Kim?

The West Coast swing is already at an end as the PGA Tour moves to its seventh event of the season. The 2023 Genesis Invitational is an elevated tournament on the PGA Tour and should shake out as a 128-man field after a few withdrawals. Tiger Woods is the official host of this event and will be teeing it up this week, which always makes things more interesting for DFS purposes. In total, 40 of the world’s top 50 golfers are in attendance.

Last week saw Scottie Scheffler take home his second WM Phoenix Open title in as many seasons and regain control as the world’s No. 1 golfer. Jon Rahm continued to play well, and Sungjae Im, Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas had strong finishes as well. All of those players are teeing it up at Riviera this week, as is 2021 Genesis Open winner Max Homa.

Below are some of the top PGA DFS fades and pivots for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy lineups. Stokastic’s expert PGA DFS projections and rankings can help identify the best picks for the 2023 Genesis Open.

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PGA DFS Golf Fades & Pivots | Genesis Invitational

Riviera is a classic venue that has been propped up by some recent renovations to become one of the tougher tests on the PGA circuit. It plays around 7,322 yards and is a par 71, which puts it up there in terms of total yardage. Riviera challenges players both off the tee and on approach, throwing in some uniqueness with challenging par 5’s and one of the best short par 4’s in the world at hole 10. This course often produces some of the lowest scrambling and greens-in-regulation percentage from the field, and strong tee-to-green games almost always win out. Tony Finau and Max Homa ranked first and third in tee-to-green stats for the event in 2021, and last year Joaquin Niemann won by gaining over five strokes around the greens and over 14 strokes tee to green.

Cooler weather and winds should keep the greens dry and make for tougher conditions than last season.

Riviera Country Club Golf Links Stats and Info

Long iron approaches at Riviera are common, and the most popular basket of approaches will fall from 150 to 175 and 175 to 200 yards this week.
Riviera is a tough driving venue, and driving accuracy here is often 10% to 12% lower than tour averages.
The rough at Riviera can also be similar to Torrey Pines and makes for some of the lowest greens-in-regulation percentages on tour.

2023 DFS Golf Fades and Pivots

High-End Fade: Tom Kim

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 18.6% | FanDuel: 14.5%

Kim finished 50th last week and lost strokes in three different areas. He struggled with the quirky layout of TPC Scottsdale and comes to a venue in Riviera that can also be hard on first-timers. Kim has the talent to overcome a lot, but it’s quite clear he’s not playing his best golf. He has bled strokes off the tee in two straight events, and his around-the-green stats don’t look very promising either — especially with Riviera’s tough green structures on tap. His drop in salary this week, however, means he still has projected ownership levels over 18%. With lots of clear, lower-owned pivots around his salary, Kim makes for a player to stay away from in large-field GPPs for the Genesis.

High-End Pivot: Jordan Spieth

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 11.8% | FanDuel: 4.6%

Spieth looked great last week, finishing inside the top 10 for the first time in 2023. The result could have been a lot better for him, as he gained over eight strokes on approach alone at TPC Scottsdale but lost over a stroke putting for the week. He comes to a course in Riviera where he’s only missed the cut once as a pro and has finished inside the top 20 four times. As far as PGA DFS projections go, Spieth is only $100 more expensive than Kim, but that difference will garner ownership 5% to 10% lower than Kim’s. Spieth is also right next to Kim in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections as the two carry top-6 percentages over 12%. With his game trending and him having a clear ownership and experience advantage over Kim, this is a great time to jump on the Spieth bandwagon for DFS.

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Mid-Range Fade: Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,300)

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 19.2%| FanDuel: 17.2%

Fitzpatrick certainly didn’t play horribly last week, but he did need to gain over five strokes around the green just to get into 29th place. That, plus the fact that he’s also lost strokes on approach in four straight PGA Tour events, makes him a dicey option this week given his current PGA DFS ownership projections (of over 19% on DraftKings). Fitzpatrick does have a solid record at Riviera, having finished fifth at this event last season, but he isn’t playing his best golf at the moment, and his move down in salary on DraftKings into the lower-$8,000 range is going to make him extremely popular this week. With an elite field, there are other comparable options to Fitzpatrick in this range — who are rating just as strongly in Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections. With him projecting as early chalk, it’s definitely worth exploring them.

Mid-Range Pivot: Jason Day

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 12.8% | FanDuel: 10.1%

Day’s course history at Riviera isn’t stellar, but his history in Scottsdale wasn’t either and he still managed his second top-10 finish in a row last week. He gained over 6.4 strokes ball striking in Phoenix and over three strokes with the putter for the second consecutive tournament. Day was legitimately the best putter in the world at one point, so seeing him heat up with that club should create interest in him for PGA DFS GPPs, as a true spike week for him could see him go to +6 strokes putting or more on the greens. Day is just under Fitzpatrick in PGA DFS projections on Stokastic but could have nearly half the ownership. Pivoting to him off a potentially not 100% Fitzpatrick seems like an easy play in large fields.

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Mid-Range Fade: Taylor Montgomery ($7,600)

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 20% | FanDuel: 13.4%

Fading Montgomery his last couple of tournaments has worked out very well. He played poorly at the Farmers over the last few days and then lost strokes everywhere in Phoenix, missing the cut by multiple strokes. It is not a good look for a player who can be very putter reliant and seems to be working through multiple issues in the long and short game. Despite the red flags, the field still wants to give him one more shot at Riviera. Montgomery is trending for 20% ownership levels on DraftKings this week yet has never played this event as a pro. Riviera is a tough course for rebounding if one’s game isn’t up to snuff, and Montgomery’s approach game has lost him strokes in four of his last six starts. Maybe Montgomery’s talent will be profitable once the tour moves to Florida, but he’s an easy fade for at least one more start.

Mid-Range Pivot: Sahith Theegala ($7,800)

Projected DFS Golf Ownership: DraftKings: 9.8% | FanDuel: 6.7%

Theegala getting half the ownership of Montgomery makes this a pivot worth considering. Theegala can be a little inconsistent himself at times, but there’s more to like with him this week, especially with his proven West Coast record. He posted a sixth-place finish at Silverado on poa greens over the fall and a fourth place at Torrey Pines three weeks ago. He has been a far more consistent player throughout the bag of late, and his stats were decimated in Phoenix by a few water balls — which skewed his approach numbers. Theegala has proven he is capable of hanging with the top players on these longer, tougher courses (fifth at Muirfield Village last season as well) and also played at this venue last season and finished 48th. He is a solid lower-owned play in this range to help fade the failing Montgomery chalk.