The final day of the EPL DFS slate offers 10 matches. Manchester United and West Ham both go on the road trying to flip flop for the final Europa League spot. Manchester City takes on an Aston Villa side that sports a top-five defense on the road (1.17 expected goals). Liverpool plays a Wolverhampton club that is not far behind defensively (1.50 expected goals). These two clubs atop the league table rank first and second overall in offense and defense and both need a win or nothing for a chance to take the title. They both come in as -588 (BetMGM) favorites on the moneyline and that is the main focus of the slate. Leeds and Burnley take on Brentford and Newcastle with Burnley as the slight lean at +125 (BetMGM) on the moneyline.
DraftKings & FanDuel EPL DFS Picks Today 5/22/22
Kevin De Bruyne (DraftKings: $9,500, FanDuel $21)
Luis Diaz (DraftKings: $9,300, FanDuel $18)
There are ways to pair attackers from Manchester and Liverpool despite the elevated salaries. Manchester City has scored just two goals against Aston Villa in each of the last three meetings. One man stands out as too low on the salary and that is Kevin De Bruyne. He handles anything he wants on the set shares and with the title on the line. He averages 3.11 shots per match with 42% on-target accuracy. The floor is built off 7.95 crosses and 5.54 scoring chances created, which top the team sheets. The upside for De Bruyne is in goal contribution which he leads the club with 24%. Never discount multi goal contributions from the Belgium international. The attacking piece that stands out is Phil Foden. He comes in at under $8,000 in a spot where goals are needed as no lead can be considered safe. Foden averages 2.48 shots per match and 5.35 crosses. He is a discounted option to pair with De Bruyne compared to Riyad Mahrez and Raheem Sterling. A popular piece would be Jack Grealish if he gets the nod at under $7,000. Grealish would love to seek out an impressive performance to take the title. Bernardo Silva is the pivot should Grealish not see the starting 11 at a similar price.
Liverpool has a big question and that is the availability of Mohammed Salah. Salah is in play when starting given his EPL leading goals and shot volume. Luis Diaz is coming in at an elevated price but the volume is there. He has 3.65 shots per match and a 40% on-target rate. Diaz draws 2.19 fouls per match which leads the team sheet and creates 4.36 scoring chances per match, which trails only Trent Alexander-Arnold. The pieces around Liverpool are Diogo Jota if he starts over Salah. Sadio Mane comes at a discounted price and is behind Salah in overall goals for the club. His volume has slumped a bit since playing the center forward role, but the goals have not. The price still makes him a GPP option for scoring upside. Diaz is a GPP play on FanDuel as well with Romelu Lukaku and Jamie Vardy at the same $18 price and with far better defensive matchups from their oppositions.
Callum Wilson (DraftKings: $7,200, FanDuel $15)
Dominic Calvert-Lewan (DraftKings: $4,400, FanDuel $14)
Newcastle will see a Burnley side trying to avoid relegation. Burnley cannot play for a draw and hope Leeds United loses against Brentford. Newcastle is a much-improved side and can break through the Burnley defense. Callum Wilson is the goal hunter that has returned. In his first outing back he failed to score but had over three attempts and finished the Newcastle goal against Arsenal that was hit first off Benjamin White to count as an own goal. Wilson still was there to tap it in had White not gotten his foot on the redirection. Wilson was the club’s leading scorer before injury and handles the penalties. The price is low for over 2x on the return should he find the back of the net. The popular option for the Newcastle side has become Bruno Guimaraes.
Everton celebrated staying out of relegation like they won the EPL title in their mid-week matchup. The comeback was impressive and an indication of just how good the offense can be when healthy. Dominic Calvert-Lewan is a big piece of that offense and his price comes in with the poor form he has shown. He found a goal in their mid-week match and the injury woes look behind him. Last season when healthy, he was among the team leaders in goals and met Richarlison with shot volume as a higher on-target clip. The floor play from the Everton side is Anthony Gordon, who sees a huge increase in set shares when Demarai Gray is not in the starting 11. Gordon’s floor is enough to be 1x the salary with goal contributions as the upside. He is in play so long as Gray is out. Richarlison is the only consistent performer for the Everton side this season and offers value with over three drawn fouls per match and leads the team in goals. The price needs him to contribute to the goals and his upside makes him a GPP option.
Christian Eriksen (DraftKings: $9,200, FanDuel $18)
Harry Kane (DraftKings: $9,800, FanDuel $20)
Brentford welcomes Leeds United. Leeds has the worst road defense in the EPL and that plays a part in why they face relegation. Brentford sees a high price for their main stars and Christian Eriksen is not excluded. He still can pay off this salary without a goal contribution. He averages 8.62 crosses per match and 4.98 scoring chances created, which towers the team sheet. Eriksen does well in the midfield to add value with 2.98 won tackles and interceptions. The attacking piece against the weak defense of Leeds is Ivan Toney, who leads the club in scoring and handles the penalties. Toney draws the most fouls on the team at 2.59 per match and averages 2.52 shots per match. His price makes him a GPP option, while Eriksen is a core play. Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa round out the goal hunting options with above two attempts per match. They would make a roster when MME only, considering the options at the price range that offer a better floor and cheaper goal hunters mentioned above.
Tottenham might get lost in the Manchester City and Liverpool focus. Tottenham has been one of the best in-form clubs down the stretch with convincing wins. The offense is on point and Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min have delivered them to the Champions League for next season. Heung-Min is a scoring threat always and builds a floor with set shares and drawn fouls. His price will keep the ownership low, making him a pay-up to be contrarian option. Kane is a pivot off the attackers from Liverpool and Manchester City. Kane averages 3.55 shots per match and handles the penalties. The matchup against Norwich is far greater than what Manchester City and Liverpool will face. No goal hunter is a safe core play, but Kane is the ideal pay-up option as leverage with Heung-Min as a core play despite the elevated salary.
Other Options: Jarrod Bowen (DraftKings: $8,200, FanDuel $17), Romelu Lukaku (DraftKings: $8,200, FanDuel $18), Jamie Vardy (DraftKings: $8,700, FanDuel $18), Wilfried Zaha (DraftKings: $8,500, FanDuel $16), Pascal Gross (DraftKings: $6,700, FanDuel $12), James Maddison (DraftKings: $10,400, FanDuel $17)
Trent Alexander- Arnold (DraftKings: $6,400, FanDuel $15)
Matt Targett (DraftKings: $5,200, FanDuel $12)
Marcos Alonso (DraftKings: $6,200, FanDuel $14)
With a number of options in the midfield, the three defender stacks on DraftKings seem like a good leverage construction. Trent Alexander-Arnold is coming in too cheap for the volume. He averages 8.35 crosses per match and leads the club in created scoring chances. His defense adds value with 3.84 won tackles and interceptions. Andre Robertson on the other side is a salary relief pivot, with Konstantinos Tsimikas as another top option should he get the start. Tsimikas is more versatile and handles the sets on his half of the pitch.
The Newcastle set share man is Matt Targett. He averages north of five crosses per match since joining Newcastle from Aston Villa. His 2.20 scoring chances created rate also has improved since the move and defensively he adds value with 4.60 won tackles and interceptions. Targett offers 2x on the salary with the floor and goal contribution. Keep in mind he does not take many chances at the net, so an assist would be the best you can hope for. Of note is the health of Kieran Trippier.
Chelsea has fallen out of the scoring department as quickly as they found it a few weeks ago. The matchup is a get-right spot and Marcos Alonso has done all he can to keep them in matches with 5.36 crosses per match and 3.86 scoring chances created. He handles set shares and is impressive defensively with 4.61 won tackles and interceptions.
Other Options: Joao Cancelo (DraftKings: $5,800, FanDuel $15), Emerson Royal (DraftKings: $5,500, FanDuel $10), Alex Telles (DraftKings: $5,800, FanDuel $12)