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CBB DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel College Basketball Fantasy Lineup Projections 2/7/22

Matt Gajewski



Free expert college basketball picks today for the Sweet 16, and March Madness Predictions today | Arizona vs. Houston & Texas Tech vs Duke

The college basketball slate for Monday, Feb. 7 is a bit light on high-profile matchups, but there are key rivalry games like Duke – Virginia and Arizona – Arizona State, plus a top-25 battle tween Texas and Kansas. This column will break down all of the top DFS plays and matchups, including Paulo Banchero and Christian Koloko.

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CBB DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Basketball


Paolo Banchero ($8,900) — One of the more interesting slates in recent memory, this group of games provides multiple values but very few studs. Duke finds themselves in a slow-paced game against Virginia. Kansas draws the fourth ranked defense of Texas. However, multiple value pieces still put some of these players squarely in play. For Duke, Paolo Banchero is one of these players despite Duke playing as an 11.5-point favorite in a game with a 129.5-point implied team total. Virginia ranks fifth in defensive efficiency overall but only 93rd in the interior and 330th on the glass. The future lottery pick has a 21.3% shot rate, 21.3% rebound rate and 14.7% assist rate. Banchero has also become the most consistent Blue Devil of late. Wendell Moore‘s shot rate has dropped to 11.4% over Duke’s last three games and Mark Williams seldom plays more than 26 minutes in an individual game.

Christian Koloko ($7,700) — The top team to exploit on this slate, Arizona remans a 13.5-point favorite over Arizona State in a game with a 143.5-point total. Most of Arizona’s usage comes through their three studs Christian Koloko, Bennedict Mathurin, and Azuolas Tubelis. Tubelis has played limited minutes of late due to injury and Mathurin relies primarily on his shot rate. Koloko is not the most involved shooter, but his 20.2% rebound rate over Arizona’s last three games gives him an excellent ceiling here. While Koloko is more likely to reach the double-double bonus than Mathurin, one of these two players should be in most lineups tonight.

Jayden Gardner ($7,100) — The stud tier is a bit thin tonight. Targeting Virginia players generally leads to losing nights, but this slate only has one game totaled above 140-points. While he draws a tough matchup against Duke’s interior, Jayden Gardner has played an enormous role for this team. Gardner notched 36, 35 and 37 minutes over Virginia’s last three games, accounting for a 25.7% shot rate, 25.9% rebound rate and 17.8% assist rate. While the efficiency could be limited in this tough matchup, Gardner’s involvement warrants consideration in this spot.

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Azuolas Tubelis ($6,800) — Tubelis continues to slowly work his way back from injury. Tubelis has a 20.5% usage rate on the year, but he has played just 25, 19 and 21 minutes in Arizona’s last three games. Even in this limited role, Tubelis has accounted for 20.1% of the shots and 17.7% of the rebounds. Another game removed from the injury, a slight increase in minutes could lead to a blow-up performance.

Justyn Mutts ($6,700) — Generally a team to avoid, Virginia Tech finds themselves favored by 13 points over Pittsburgh in a game with a 128.5-point total. Even with the poor total overall, Virginia Tech’s 70.75-point implied team total makes them a desirable target on this slate. Struggling through most of the year, the Hokies have recently varied their rotation. Justyn Mutts has received 33, 33 and 24 minutes in Virginia Tech’s last three games, significantly outplaying his frontcourt counterpart Keve Aluma. Over that span, Mutts has a 12.7% shot rate, 25.4% rebound rate and 21.3% assist rate. In comparison, Aluma has a 12.7% shot rate, 16.9% rebound rate and 6.4% assist rate. With the recent trends favoring Mutts, this looks like a spot to take the slight savings.

A.J. Griffin ($5,900) — For those looking at cheaper attachments to Duke’s 70.5-point implied team total, A.J. Griffin continues to take on a larger role. Griffin has now played 31, 22 and 34 minutes in Duke’s last three games. He has a 17.3% usage rate on the season, but his numbers continue to climb in Duke’s last three games. During that span, he has a 21.2% shot rate and 13.2% rebound rate. Even in a poor game environment, Griffin still provides upside behind Duke’s solid team total.

Value Plays

Storm Murphy ($4,600) — With Virginia Tech’s solid implied team total, taking multiple pieces does not look like a complete disaster like it normally does. Among the cheaper options, Storm Murphy looks to have a slight edge over Nahiem Alleyne. Both have played inconsistent minutes, but Murphy has logged 28, 32 and 21 over Virginia Tech’s last three games. In that span he has improved on his season-long 13.3% usage rate. Alleyne does save a little extra in salary, but Murphy’s uptick in usage gives him a slight edge here.

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Jahlil White ($4,100) — The worst game on the slate, Temple is a 3.5-point favorite over South Florida in a game with a 124-point total. Despite the poor game environment, mispricing has thrust multiple value pieces into consideration. For Temple, both Nick Jourdain and Jahlil White look incredibly mispriced. Already missing Khalif Battle and Jake Forrester, Jeremiah Williams is also questionable for this game. In particular, White has played 33, 25 and 33 minutes in Temple’s last three games. He also has slightly better involvement than Jourdain, behind his 15.7% shot rate, 25.5% rebound rate and 35.9% assist rate. While the matchup is tough against USF’s 89th ranked defense, White’s involvement at his price is too sweet to pass up.

Corey Walker ($3,500) — On the other side, USF runs a much wider rotation than Temple. However, Corey Walker returned from injury in USF’s most recent game to log 25 minutes. Walker only scored five points in that game, but he also secured four boards. He has already started five games for USF this year, playing with solid peripheral numbers. For those completely punting on this slate, Walker presents a near-minimum price with upside.

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Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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