College basketball season is finally upon us, and DraftKings and FanDuel continue to provide sizable contests for DFS grinders. Examining the slate for Feb. 14, a number of core plays stand out. In this piece I’ll be locating top plays from each college basketball matchup and determining the top CBB DFS picks for your DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
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CBB DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Core Plays | Feb. 14
Studs Tier
Sandro Mamukelashvili ($8,500) — Coming in with the highest implied team total on the slate, Seton Hall is an 8-point favorites over Marquette in a game totaled at 142.5 points. While Seton Hall’s toughest matchup will be in the paint against Marquette’s 26th-ranked interior defense, Mamukelashvili does enough scoring outside to deserve consideration. Mamukelashvili has a 19.2% usage rate for Seton Hall and has played at least 36 minutes in three straight games. He has accounted for a 25.2% shot rate, 27.1% rebound rate and 23.5% assist rate in that span. For those looking for cheaper Seton Hall options, Jared Rhoden ($7,100) and Myles Cale ($6,100) both provide value in this attractive game environment.
Xavier Johnson ($7,700) — Pittsburgh has DFS appeal from their condensed rotation. While Justin Champagnie ($9,100) is the team’s alpha, Johnson has quickly narrowed the gap. Johnson often found himself in foul trouble to begin the season. However, he has two straight games with at least 36 minutes and a team-leading 22.5% usage rate. He accounts for an 18.9% shot rate and 40.5% assist rate in Pittsburgh’s last two games. While Champagnie looks attractive, Johnson offers $1,400 in savings for a similar role within the offense.
Jose Alvarado ($7,400) — On the other side of this game, Georgia Tech has the fourth-highest implied team total at 73.25. Similar to Pittsburgh, this team also plays a condensed rotation. Moses Wright ($7,800), Michael Devoe ($7,200), Jordan Usher ($6,600) and Bubba Parham ($4,200) all deserve consideration. However, Alvarado looks like the top value after missing two free throws to lose Georgia Tech’s most recent game. Alvarado has played at least 37 minutes in three straight games for Georgia Tech, including a pair of games with 40 minutes exactly. He also has a 21.9% shot rate, 19.4% rebound rate and 19.4% assist rate in the team’s last three games.
CBB DFS Mid-Priced Tier
Eric Ayala ($6,800) — While a middling environment for DFS, Maryland is a 2.5-point home favorite over Minnesota in a 138-point game total. Minnesota has some of the worst home/road splits in the country, while Maryland plays a condensed rotation. Aaron Wiggins ($7,500), Donta Scott ($6,000), Darryl Morsell ($5,300) and Ayala play almost every minute for Maryland. While all provide varying degrees of value, Ayala looks like a particular sleeper. Ayala has a 20.8% shot rate, 17.1% rebound rate and 20% assist rate in Maryland’s last three games. The first time these teams played, Ayala also led Maryland in scoring, with 21 points.
D.J. Carton ($6,400) — On the other side of the Seton Hall game, Marquette offers DFS appeal with affordable prices. Dawson Garcia ($6,300), Koby McEwen ($5,800), and Carton play secure roles within the offense in particular. With Garcia faces Mamukelashvili in the paint, looking to the guards makes sense. Seton Hall ranks 312th in 3-point defense, which works in the favor of McEwen. He shoots 37% from 3 and ranks second on the team in 3-point attempts. This matchup could also benefit Carton, who paces the team in 3-point attempts but currently hits just 31% of them. Carton offers more peripheral upside with his 21.5% rebound rate and 22.9% assist rate, but this is accounted for in price. Ultimately both Carton and McEwen look like strong values at their particular prices today.
Ethan Thompson ($6,300) — In the final game on the slate, Oregon State is a 5-point underdog to an Arizona State team battling injuries. Josh Christopher ($5,600), Marcus Bagley ($5,800) and Chris Osten ($3,000) all suffered injuries or missed Arizona State’s last game, making the Sun Devils difficult to evaluate. While value may appear with late news, Thompson already looks like a supreme value on the other side. Thompson has played at least 31 minutes in back-to-back games for Oregon State, with a team-leading 19.9% usage rate. Thompson accounts for a 21.2% shot rate and a 24.9% assist rate on the season. With Arizona State ranking 235th in defensive efficiency, Thompson is a top buy-low option on the slate.
Value Tier
Jarod Lucas ($4,800) — For those looking at cheap sleepers, Lucas could provide value in the same game for Oregon State. Lucas continues to start for the Beavers and has played at least 30 minutes in two of the last three games. Lucas has a 16.9% usage rate, which includes a 17.9% shot rate, 8.1% rebound rate and 13.8% assist rate in Oregon State’s last three games. Facing a potentially short-handed Arizona State team, Lucas makes sense as a potential value punt.
Garrett Sturtz ($4,600) — After getting completely wrecked by Loyola-Chicago yesterday, Drake will look to rebound as a 5.5-point underdog against the same opponent. Prior to the game, Drake lost one of their top players in ShanQuan Hemphill ($6,700). In his place Sturtz stepped into the starting lineup and played a team-leading 34 minutes for Drake. Despite overall inefficient play from Drake, Sturtz still scored 10 points and grabbed 6 rebounds. Still priced as a situational player, Sturtz provides another value piece on the DraftKings and FanDuel main slate.
Ithiel Horton ($4,000) — For those looking at value plays, this slate provides a number of team’s with tight rotations. Horton has played at least 31 minutes in back-to-back games for the Pittsburgh. He has a 14.7% usage rate on the season, including a 16.2% shot rate and 9.2% rebound rate in Pittsburgh’s last three games. Horton also leads this team with 87 3-point attempts and shoots 37% from beyond the arc. This takes advantage of a Georgia Tech team that ranks 307th in 3-point defense.
Brad Davison ($4,400) — To this point none of Wisconsin, Michigan, Notre Dame or Miami have been mentioned. Miami and Notre Dame both provide some value, but each team looks slightly overpriced. Michigan hasn’t played in almost a month after a COVID-19 stoppage. However, Wisconsin has some intrigue at cheaper price points. Nate Reuvers ($4,800), Tyler Wahl ($4,700), Jonathan Davis ($4,300), Aleem Ford ($4,200) and Davison all find their prices below $5,000. Continuing to start and play 25-plus minutes per game, Davison looks like the safest of the bunch. He has a 15.1% usage rate, including a 13.2% shot rate, 17.1% rebound rate and 17.7% assist rate in Wisconsin’s last three games. While Michigan presents a tough matchup, their prolonged stoppage and Davison’s price offer decent value on the Sunday slate of games.
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