Trey Sermon slides into a historically productive San Francisco 49ers running back room in his rookie season. He initially spent his first three college seasons at Oklahoma before transferring to Ohio State last year. With the Buckeyes Sermon showed the ability to handle a full workload. However, the 49ers already have Raheem Mostert, meaning a time-share could emerge. With a stable of running backs already in the 49ers’ room, where Sermon should be coming off the board in the fantasy football drafts is up in the air. Here is what to expect from Sermon in Year 1 and where he should go in fantasy football drafts.
Fantasy Football Player Previews: Trey Sermon
Trey Sermon’s Production Profile
Sermon enters the NFL after an interesting college career. While his athleticism is middling by NFL standards, Sermon routinely produced in college, rushing for 744 and 947 yards in his first two seasons with the Sooners before a series of setbacks. He battled nagging injuries and also had to deal with the emergence of future NFL back Kennedy Brooks. Brooks recorded back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, displacing Sermon from his previous role. Facing a potential timeshare moving forward, Sermon decided to transfer to Ohio State, where Sermon shared touches with Master Teague. Sermon finished 2020 with 870 yards rushing and four touchdowns on 116 carries. For reference, Teague finished with 514 yards on 104 carries. Sermon’s 7.5 yards per carry dwarfed Teague’s 4.9. Sermon also caught 12 balls to Teague’s five.
Check out Matt Gajewski’s breakdown of Trey Sermon in the 2021 Fantasy Football rankings and draft cheat sheet for Yahoo, ESPN and CBS leagues.
Opportunity and Efficiency
From an efficiency perspective, Sermon looks average at first glance. He forced 41 missed tackles and created 517 yards after contact. However, when adjusted to a per-attempt basis, Sermon was slightly above average. His forced missed tackles per attempt ranked behind Javonte Williams, Rhamondre Stevenson, Michael Carter and Elijah Mitchell in this class. However, they also rank ahead of Najee Harris and Travis Etienne, making him an interesting evaluation.
Sermon also never handled a large workload for an extended period of time in college. Of his 870 yards, 636 of them came in three games last year before getting injured. Sermon has just four career games of 20-plus carries and never reached 20 receptions in an individual season.
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Fortunately, Sermon landed in one of the top environments for a running back. San Francisco produced a 100-yard game or at least one touchdown at the running back position in 13 of 16 weeks. Impressively, this occurred with the offense battling injuries to important players like Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle.
In addition to the landing spot, the depth chart has already cleared to some degree in Sermon’s favor. The 49ers let Jerick McKinnon walk in free agency, and Jeff Wilson Jr suffered a knee injury in late May. With Wilson unlikely to play early in the year, Sermon will now compete with Mostert and free agent acquisition Wayne Gallman. Gallman looks unlikely to contribute significantly, but Mostert likely commands a sizable workload. Last year Mostert carried 104 times for an efficient 521 yards in eight games. However, Mostert’s lack of size makes him unlikely to ever handle a three-down workload.
Further improving matters, the 49ers are likely to move back towards a run-centric offense. In 2019 the 49ers ranked 31st in pass rate. Last year injuries and second-half deficits forced San Francisco into the 18th-highest pass rate. The 49ers also drafted dual-threat quarterback Trey Lance with the third overall pick. Playing behind PFF’s ninth-ranked offensive line, this run game has elite potential in 2021.
Bottom Line
Sermon continues to surge up draft boards this summer. He is coming off the board with an ADP of 75.7, falling just behind Kareem Hunt and Myles Gaskin but just ahead of Chase Edmonds and Mostert. Like most players in this range, Sermon faces impediments to a full workload. However, the 49ers project for 10.5 wins, giving Sermon paths to elite fantasy totals.
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