Coming over to Buffalo last offseason, Stefon Diggs erupted in his first season with the Bills. He led the NFL in almost every major receiving category while riding Josh Allen‘s third-year leap. Without elite competition for targets, Diggs looks likely to handle another massive workload in 2021. So, where should we be having Diggs in our fantasy football rankings, and how high should Diggs be going in fantasy football drafts this season?
Fantasy Football Player Previews: Stefon Diggs
Stefon Diggs’ Production Profile
Diggs has significantly outperformed expectations throughout his career. He had 52 catches for 720 yards as a rookie, then 903 yards and 849 yards in his second and third seasons. In 2018 Diggs finally took that step forward into elite territory. In his final two seasons with Minnesota Diggs recorded 1,021 and 1,130 yards receiving, and that last season came on just 63 catches and 94 targets. However, the run-heavy nature of Minnesota’s offense and the presence of Adam Thielen kept Diggs’ ceiling capped.
However, Buffalo fully unlocked Diggs in 2020 after trading their first-round pick for him. Diggs recorded 127 catches, 1,535 yards and eight touchdowns on 166 targets. The targets, catches and yards receiving all led the NFL. In total, this equated to a massive 29.3% target share.
Check out Matt Gajewski’s breakdown of Stefon Diggs in the 2021 Fantasy Football rankings and draft cheat sheet for Yahoo, ESPN and CBS leagues.
Opportunity & Efficiency
That 29.3% target share ranked third in the NFL, behind only Davante Adams and Deandre Hopkins. The Bills also targeted Diggs downfield often. He finished with 34.2% of the team’s air yards, which also ranked in the top 15 receivers. Finally, Diggs received 21.1% of Buffalo’s red zone targets (16).
From an efficiency perspective, Diggs worked all over the field. He played in the slot on 31.5% of his snaps and ran a route on 93.5% of Buffalo’s dropbacks. His 11.5 average depth of target (ADOT), lines up with his air yards share. Diggs also recorded 548 of his yards after the catch, showing the ability to create on his own. His 2.51 yards per route run ranked sixth in the NFL per Pro Football Focus.
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Diggs should benefit from offensive continuity. The Bills return every offensive line starter, and Allen now enters his fourth season. Allen’s ascendance largely contributed to Diggs’ success last year. In 2020 Allen’s completion percentage jumped from 58.8% to 69.2%. His average yards per attempt also soared to 8.5 after checking in at 6.7 during 2019.
The Bills also failed to add any wide receivers of consequence. The oft-injured John Brown left in free agency with his 52 targets. The Bills brought in Emmanuel Sanders, but at age 34 Sanders hasn’t reached 900 yards receiving since 2016. Behind Sanders, Cole Beasley and second-year Gabriel Davis play complementary roles. Beasley has also threatened retirement, potentially removing another 107 targets. All in all, Diggs should threaten to lead the NFL in targets again this year.
Buffalo also retains Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator. The Bills passed 61.7% of the time last year (11th) while running 64.1 plays per game (18th). The Bills still scored 29.9 points per game (third) while averaging 281.2 yards passing (fourth).
Bottom Line
As for fantasy football, Diggs is a difference maker at a flattening position. While little separates the mid-round receivers, Diggs’ enormous target share keeps him firmly in the first-round conversation. The Bills have a win total of 11 games and the best odds to win the AFC East. Diggs has an ADP of 13.4 in best ball drafts on Underdog Fantasy, behind only Tyreek Hill among receivers. While running backs continue to dominate the first round, Diggs enters the conversation once the feature backs come off the board.
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