It’s almost like the KBO itself knows that the eyes of the world are on it and doesn’t want to cede the position when things start heading back to normal. What a dynamite day of socially distanced baseball that was! KBO DFS owners had plenty of scoring up and down the slate, with a ridiculous 77 runs scored across the 5 games. The only team that really didn’t put up an interesting score was Lotte, which made things very interesting given the exposure the public had to the Giants and their huge implied run total.
With 4 teams breaking the 10-run mark last night, including a 13-11 spectacle in Suwon that saw KT eke out a victory, and 14 home runs there were certainly fireworks. The ESPN game did not disappoint, with the Dinos outlasting a late rally by the Bears to hold on to a 5-4 victory after getting out of the gate early. Despite all the scoring, KBO DFS owners did end up with a few relevant starting pitching performances on the night as well. Kia’s starter Min-woo Lee defied expectations and put up the night’s highest fantasy score, and 3 other starters went over 30FDP/16DKP. Given his price and ownership, hitting the bullseye on Lee with the right stacks was critical to success last night.
ESPN’s KBO insider reported that the KBO was slowly coming around to opening stadiums to fans. Each team in the league apparently emailed season ticket holders to inform them that official plans would be presented shortly, with the expectation that an initial 20% capacity limit would be in place, which would gradually increase as the season carries on. While nothing is official yet, this is exciting news for the planet, and should be fun for the KBO.
The same insider spoke to an unnamed KBO star hitter about the rumors of re-juiced baseballs. While there was no firm evidence presented, the hitter made an interesting suggestion. The thought is that re-juiced baseballs are not the culprit in the increased exit velocities and hard-hit rates we’ve seen in the KBO so far this year. The veteran slugger suggested that KBO starters were throwing at a diminished velocity early in the season, making it easier for hitters to drive the ball. Whether this is a product of the strange preparation and training circumstances this season, the impact that the absence of fans has on a pitcher’s adrenaline, or even a real thing is unclear, but the situation is worth monitoring.
The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.
As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.
With lock still hours away (5:30 am), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.
Final footnote before we dive in, Josh is off this week so keep an eye out for some starting pitching notes as we go through games here.
KBO DFS Picks: Game Breakdown for DraftKings + FanDuel
Hanwha Eagles @ KT Wiz – 10 run total (4.49/5.74) – Suggested Stack: Wiz 1-4
These two teams went to war last night. The Eagles posted a 9-run inning in the 7th to get back into what had been looking like a laugher for the Wiz. After scoring at least 2 runs in each of the first 5 innings, the Wiz cooled off over the last four frames, and had to hang on by their fingernails to squeeze out the 13-11 victory. Tonight, the Eagles face KT starter Je-seong Bae ($25/$6.9k) a 23-year-old righty with some solid numbers in his young career, and some upside against the Eagles’ typically limited lineup, last night’s results notwithstanding. Bae completely shut down the powerful Dinos offense, striking out 7 over 7 innings the last time out, and presents some solid history in his short career. While that level of strikeout upside isn’t going to be the expectation for Bae, he is good at limiting contact for a KBO starter and does not give up too many long balls. Bae is one of the pitchers grouped together near the top of Awesemo’s projections tonight and carries favorable ownership, making him a very good pitching target on both sites. After not scoring more than 5 runs in any of last week’s contests, the Eagles posted their highest total of the year last night. Hanwha got contributions up and down the lineup, including a homer from under-priced cleanup hitter Seung-yol Lee ($9/$3.2k), who we mentioned in this space yesterday and will continue to do until the sites decide to price him up for his talent. Veteran third baseman Kwang-min Song ($10/$4.5k) came out of the game after two at bats. If he is in the lineup tonight he is a productive option when presented with runners in scoring position, despite not having much home run power.
Eagles starter Min-jae Jang ($21/$7.2k) is an unremarkable 30-year-old veteran pitcher. Like many in the KBO, Jang has a habit of pitching to a huge amount of contact. Jang can limit his walks by keeping the ball in the strike zone and relying on his defense to bail him out. In 2019 this approach yielded 150 hits in 119 innings pitched, with a FIP more than a full run lower than his 5.43 ERA. Jang is not going to be an option for me tonight for anything other than getting a few differentiated lineups. On DraftKings he is a marginally acceptable SP2. The Wiz offense got out to a crazy start last night, scoring a ton of runs early in the game and getting all over the Eagles starter. KT got a lot of offense from the first 5 hitters in the lineup, including home runs from Min-hyeok Kim ($9/$4.6k) and Baek-ho Kang ($14/ $5.8k). Both hitters make for strong options for KBO DFS owners again tonight, with strong numbers in Awesemo’s projections, and should see plenty of time on the bases and opportunities to drive in runs. Leadoff hitter Woo-jun Sim ($11/$2.8k) makes for a good start to Wiz stacks tonight. The shortstop is getting on base at a stronger clip than his career numbers so far this year and may have taken a leap at age 25. Sim presents a good amount of speed and opportunity on the base paths and is a good option to build into your Wiz stacks with the sluggers behind him.
LG Twins @ Samsung Lions – 9.5 run total (5.56/4.16) – Suggested Stack: Twins – Dealer’s choice 1-6
The Twins came into last night as the odds-on favorite to lead the slate offensively and were Awesemo’s 2nd highest ranked stack on the night, with an imbalanced ownership number on FanDuel making them extremely appealing prior to lock. The Twins were all over starter David Buchanan, posting 10 runs through the first 4 innings before he yielded to the bullpen. Tonight, the Lions will try to quiet the powerful Twins lineup with 3rd year starter Chae-hueng Choi ($24/$7.7k). The young lefty struck out a shade under a batter per inning in 2019, while allowing too many men to reach base. Choi did a good job limiting the home run last season, allowing only 0.84 HR/9. Awesemo’s projections have Choi ranked near the bottom of options tonight, given his matchup, and we’re not going out on a limb to recommend him here against the top stack of the day, but it’s not entirely crazy to think he could post an acceptable start as an unowned SP2 on DraftKings, with a significant amount of leverage. The Twins are Awesemo’s top rated stack on both sites tonight and are drawing right around the appropriate level of ownership. Hitters up and down the Twins lineup are projecting well tonight, offering numerous options with which to construct interesting lineups. Utilizing leadoff hitter Chung-woo Lee ($12/$3.4k), who hit a rare homer last night, makes sense again here. Lee is likely to be on base ahead of his teammates and has some wheels to steal bases and score runs.
Tyler Wilson ($26/$7.5k) is starting for the Twins tonight and is no doubt one of the best pitching options on the slate. Taking on the limited Lions lineup should help Wilson right the ship on his early 2020 campaign. Despite being one of the league leaders in the KBO each of the last two seasons, Wilson has been roughed up early on, which appears to be suppressing his ownership on FanDuel, making him a very appealing option. Wilson projects among the top 3 starters on both sites tonight, and is a strong SP1 on DraftKings, despite his projected 30% ownership. The Lions have the night’s lowest implied total and don’t offer us a ton of options in the projections. Projected 3-hitter Ja-wook Koo ($9/$4.8k) got his season in gear with a good game last night and might carry some momentum forward. Getting to him with one of the hitters on either side of him in a Samsung mini stack would be the approach if I were inclined to play Lions here. Which I am not.
Lotte Giants @ Kia Tigers – 9.5 run total (5.18/4.53) – Suggested Stack: Giants 1-4
Well Lotte sure cost themselves some new fans last night. Coming into the game with a huge implied run total, momentum, and a lot of KBO DFS ownership, the Giants managed to scratch out a mere 2 runs for us, completely derailing countless lineups. This is a good example of why it is important to keep an eye on projected ownership in the top stacks tool. Before lock the Giants were around a 17% chance of being the top stack but were pulling nearly 30% ownership as a stack. When a team gets upside down like that, it makes sense to consider other options. Owners who pivoted to other high-ranking stacks like LG were rewarded for the move. Tonight, the Giants are carrying another implied total above 5, taking on Kia starter Drew Gagnon ($23/$6.7k). Gagnon is in his first season in the KBO and has yet to post a good performance, struggling through his first two starts. Gagnon ranks right around the middle of Awesemo’s projections tonight, a tier below the top starters. The Giants stack ranks 4th on both sites tonight, a tamer landing spot for them which may have the attention of KBO DFS owners elsewhere. If they end up heading toward being under-owned, they will have my attention this time. Outfielders Byung-hun Min ($11/$3.8k) and Ah-seop Son ($13/$3.2k) both project well atop the lineup in the 1 and 2 spots, and make for good table-setters or an inexpensive run-scoring two-man. I would be more inclined to build toward the full stack with the productive hitters behind them in the lineup here.
The Tigers got a few big performances last night and posted a 9-run game, with some important numbers for fantasy owners. Tonight, they get the Giants ace Dan Straily ($23/$7.0k) who is pulling down Awesemo’s highest pitching projection tonight. Straily has been nothing short of the KBO’s best starter so far this season and is tied atop the strikeout leaderboard despite being a start behind the closest competitors. Straily should be an obvious go-to for KBO DFS owners on both sites here but is no secret, he will be owned, so be ready to get different with your bats when you plug him in. The Tigers two big bats in the middle, Preston Tucker ($16/$6.1k) and Hyung-woo Choi ($12/$6.2k) are very expensive on DraftKings, but their ownership isn’t suppressed to the degree that I would have expected. They appear to be less owned on FanDuel, despite the discount on Choi on that site. Keep an eye on the projected ownership for this pair, they could be an interesting contrarian pay-up option in a two-man drawing against the night’s highest owned starting pitcher.
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NC Dinos @ Doosan Bears – 9.0 run total (4.37/4.83) – Suggested stack: Dinos 1-4
The big showdown on ESPN didn’t disappoint with these teams playing a tense 1-run game. The Dinos got out to an early lead before the Bears put up some late runs for KBO DFS owners who tried to pick them off as a low-owned high upside stack. Tonight, the Dinos draw the Bears import starter Chris Flexen ($24/$8.7k), who is off to a solid start in his KBO career. Flexen has done a good job harnessing his basic arsenal so far, relying on a 95mph fastball along with an effective slider-changeup combination. In each of his first two starts Flexen has struck out 6 while only walking 1 and limiting runs, with one of those starts coming against the capable Twins offense. The Dinos present the biggest power threat that Flexen has faced so far in the KBO, and it should be interesting to watch how he handles them tonight, given his propensity for giving up the long ball in his short MLB career. The projections have Flexen ranked as the number 2 starter on both sites tonight, though his price on DraftKings leaves plenty to be desired. The Dinos offense is still rolling, with contributions from the top 6 hitters on a near daily basis. Leadoff hitter Min-woo Park ($15/$4.1k) got a lot of love from the ESPN crew for his hot start to the season and is a key part of any Dinos stack. Aaron Altherr ($9/$5.2k) has moved up to the 2 spot in the Dinos lineup but is still way too inexpensive on FanDuel, where owners should pounce on the opportunity.
The Dinos young ace Chang-mo Koo ($28/$10.0k) is the most expensive player on both sites tonight, but lands near the middle of Awesemo’s pitching projections. This is likely to be a major inflection point on the night. The talent is clearly there for Koo, but this is a tricky matchup against one of the better offenses in the league. The pricing seems to be keeping ownership down on one of the best strikeout pitchers in the game, increasing his appeal for those willing to take on a little risk and can figure out how to afford the pricey starter. Looking at the other side of the dish, the Bears offense is still pricey and might not be the best option here. Even if they get to Koo to the point where he becomes a bad option from a pitching perspective, I still expect him to be able to keep Doosan down to the point where their primary bats probably don’t make value either. Projected 5th hitter, infielder Joo-hwan Choi ($11/$2.2k) is still underpriced and helps get to the less affordable stars like Jose Fernandez ($17/$6.3k). 6-hitter Jae-ho Kim ($9/$2.1k) is another inexpensive option to plug into various combinations with the better Bears.
SK Wyverns @ Kiwoom Heroes – 10 run total (4.42/5.82) – Suggested Stack: Heroes 4-7
In another slugfest last night, the Heroes jumped out to a 6-run lead in the bottom of the 1st, only to see the Wyverns answer right back with 5 over the next two innings, keeping this one close for a while. Eventually the Heroes broke out and won the game 11-6, continuing their improved play on the season. Tonight, the Heroes send 21-year-old 3rd year starter Seung-ho Lee ($20/$8.1k) to the mound. Lee ranks toward the bottom of projections on both sites and doesn’t offer a ton to love in terms of ability. His limited strikeout potential not being enough to mask his inability to keep runners off base so far in his young career. The Wyverns offer a lot of power in the middle of the order but have not gotten things rolling this season, landing them in the middle of tonight’s top stacks rankings despite the good matchup. This one could be a good spot to get to them in limited fashion, they’re eventually going to perform better than we’ve seen so far and should have plenty of opportunity to score tonight. Keeping it simple, a pricey two-man stack using Jamie Romak ($12/$6.0k) and Jeong Choi ($14/$5.3k) makes sense again here, with both ranking in the top 5 in my HR model. Extending the stack up to hitters 1 and 2 in the lineup or adding high-end 5th hitter Dong-min Han ($13/$4.2k) remains the way to build here, with the bottom of the Wyverns lineup offering nothing much in the projections tonight.
Wyverns starter, 28-year-old Jong-hoon Park ($22/$7.9k), has capable numbers through his KBO career, but tends to allow too many baserunners, walking around 3 per 9 innings, with limited strikeout potential. Park manages to keep the ball in the yard, allowing under a home run per 9, and demonstrating an ability to strand runners by relying on his defense. Park ranks dead last in Awesemo’s pitching projections tonight and is drawing basically zero ownership. He is likely to get beat up and is a play only for those looking to get very contrarian tonight. With the powerful Heroes lineup rounding into form, the Kiwoom stack is landing 2nd on both sites in the stacks ranking tool. The projections are favoring the Heroes 1-7 hitters in the lineup tonight so owners will be able to find value and get creative with constructions on this one. Less popular players like infielder Hye-sung Kim ($6/$2.0k), who is nearly minimum price on both sites again tonight, will be critical to getting different while maintaining upside in the Heroes lineup. Projected 5th hitter Taek-keun Lee ($8/$2.1k) is underpriced for someone in that spot in this lineup but is somehow only pulling under 5% ownership projection on both sites, making for a killer option tonight.
Favorite Stack: LG Twins
HR Call: Jamie Romak (SK)
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