I’ll be honest, I took last night’s KBO DFS slate off completely, mostly because I was still hurting from getting burned by South Korean meteorology once again. Instead I crashed early for a change and caught up with a long-lost friend I like to call sleep. Which was, naturally, rudely interrupted when I shot out of bed at 5:15 A.M. in a panic that I had to get my non-existent lineups done in a hurry. This… this happens to you guys too, right? Shut up, I don’t have a problem; you have a problem.
Since I was up, I did throw the ESPN game on, so I’m not going into things completely ignorant as to what happened. And I did get to sleepily catch that woman dislodging her jaw like a python to take massive bites out of what she called a donut while on global television. Or did I dream that part too?
The slate gave KBO DFS owners a couple monster pitching performances from chalky starters Chang-mo Koo and David Buchanan to go along with two huge team run totals with the Wiz posting 11 and the Bears going further at 14.
KBO DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Hitters
Tonight’s slate has one big outlier game total and four below average games. The Bears and Heroes are currently pulling an 11.5 game total from odds-makers making them obvious bats to look at going into the slate. We’ll try to find a few less obvious spots to pair them with, while attacking some of the lower-end starters on what is a decent pitching slate.
The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.
As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.
With lock still hours away (5:30 A.M. EST), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.
Hanwha Eagles @ Kia Tigers – 9.0 run total (4.17/5.03) – Suggested Stack(s): Tigers 2-3-4
The Tigers got away with one last night in their chase to get the season in gear. Trailing the easy Eagles 3-1 in the ninth they rallied to win the game 4-3 on a series of singles, with Ji-wan Na picking up the final one to walk it off in whatever the opposite of style is.
The Eagles get Min-woo Lee who has been pitching serviceably so far this season but doesn’t really stand out in any category. Vegas doesn’t love much about the Eagles and they’re one of several teams with an implied total below 4.25 runs tonight. If you want to play Eagles for the hell of it you should feel best about the block of hitters from Eun-won Jung ($8/$4,300) through Sung-yeol Lee ($9/$3,600) in the order assuming the latter is hitting seventh again. I’m not sure I want more than three of these bats in any kind of volume however, so use one of In-ho Choi ($5/$2,500) or Tae-kyun Kim ($7/$3,700).
A matchup against Warwick Saupold has the Tigers in the bottom half of stack rankings tonight. There’s a bit of ownership edge on DraftKings but it’s a bit of a “meh” play. Saupold has been mostly strong through the year and the run total suggests that odds-makers agree with what Awesemo’s projections are coming up with. The Tigers should win this one, but it’s maybe a better ballgame than a KBO DFS spot. Most of the key bats here are unpopular enough on DraftKings that you can put them together however you like if you roll these dice. Hyung-woo Choi ($13/$4,900) hitting third will be the most popular bat here but he’s also one of KBO DFS’ better current values on both sites. The usual duo of Ji-wan Na ($9/$3,800) and Preston Tucker ($17/$6,100) is a fine way to approach a three-man again here, attaching leadoff hitter Sun-bin Kim ($8/$4,400) is probably less favorable than using better hitters down the lineup, despite the opportunity advantage. I would look more toward Ho-ryung Kim ($10/$4,100) and Min-sang Yoo ($7/$3,600) if I’m stretching this to a full stack.
KT Wiz @ LG Twins – 9.5 run total (4.24/5.49) – Suggested Stack(s): Twins 1-5
These two teams only needed nine innings to reach the same 4-3 decision they required 11 for the night before. The Twins staged a late game rally to win a thriller in the bottom of the ninth this time around. Tonight’s total is average once again, but the implied run distribution has the Twins as one of the higher team totals on the night.
The Wiz draw Casey Kelly this time out. Kelly has scuffled a bit lately, but all his peripherals are in line with his usual numbers at a quick glance, and his FIP is more than a run better than his earned run average. The run total here suggests that would be an accurate assessment and Awesemo’s projections further back it up with the Wiz landing near the bottom of stack rankings, but they’re another team with a not impossible chance of being the best option on the slate drawing less ownership than they should be getting. If you go this way you can mix and match mostly at will. Even when he’s on Kelly isn’t a guy who blows hitters away, so there should be some opportunity. Jae-gyun Hwang ($11/$4,600) and Mel Rojas Jr. ($17/$6,000) will be the most popular bats, with Hwang drawing 15% ownership on DraftKings and Rojas at a mere six percent, while on FanDuel they reverse with Rojas on top but only drawing 10% or so. Baek-ho Kang ($16/$5,200) is an undervalued KBO DFS asset, play him accordingly. The bottom of this lineup is concerning, so I would restrict most of my ownership to the guys up top where I deploy the Wiz. It won’t take much to get over on them. If you want to run a low-owned catcher play out there Sung-woo Jang ($8/$3,200) has proven productive on occasion this season.
The Twins are ranked second on both sites in the stack tool, but they look pretty popular. It might be a challenge to get to the right bats in a workable proportion to the public today but there’s a lot to like about the spot in a vacuum. With Eun-sung Chae ($13/$3,200) back the Twins are able to field a much better batting order. Ji-hwan Oh ($9/$3,600) has taken residence in the second spot in this lineup and makes a worthwhile part of the stack along with usual leadoff hitter Chun-woong Lee ($8/$3,300). Roberto Ramos ($17/$5,400) hasn’t gotten into one in a while but I like his chance to hit a home run tonight off a 22-year-old rookie making just his second career start. His ownership is still a gruesome 50% or so on FanDuel, but he’s getting more playable on DraftKings falling to around 35%. Regardless, you’ll have to get unique with the rest of your construction to use Twins bats tonight.
Lotte Giants @ NC Dinos – 9.5 run total (4.69/5.01) – Suggested Stack(s): Giants 1-5
The Dinos scored six for KBO DFS owners last night and a few of the popular bats went off with both Sung-bum Na and Eui-ji Yang hitting home runs. The 6-2 win featured another dominant performance by Chang-mo Koo, who I’m getting excited to see in Yankees pinstripes some time in 2022 or so. The kid mostly breezed through his seven inning performance allowing just two runs on five hits while mowing down 11 Giants hitters.
The Giants get Jae-hak Lee who has been average at best through most of the season. His 4.55 FIP is a run better than his earned run average but he doesn’t do anything to intimidate hitters striking out only 14.9%. With the boppers in this Giants lineup we could see some worthwhile plays. They rank in the middle of the stack tool and they’re about as popular as they should be tonight. On both sites Dixon Machado ($10/$4,500), Chi-hong An ($9/$3,100), and Dae-ho Lee ($10/$3,800) are all reasonable low-owned plays. You could even enter that as an oddball three-man play from later in the lineup and I wouldn’t hate it. The more obvious names in this lineup are higher projected but will be popular, although Hoon Jung ($9/$3,500) isn’t drawing nearly what he should be hitting in the top three in this lineup.
The Dinos bats didn’t quite reach their run total, but they mostly delivered, and the chalky bats were the ones to come through for KBO DFS players who were on them. This team is going to start popping again, there’s too much quality to stay quiet for long. This probably isn’t their night though, with KBO ace Dan Straily taking the mound for the Giants. They rank in the bottom half of stacks and for once I don’t like them despite the ownership differential on both sites. Take “don’t like” with a grain of salt, because I’ll definitely look to get over the field on a three percent owned Sung-bum Na ($18/$5.700) on DraftKings, along with Suk-min Park ($10/$4,400) and Jin-sung Kang ($15/$5,000). Even Eui-ji Yang ($13/$5,900) is only at 16%, making him unusually playable, but not inexplicably so, given the matchup. The team loses usual leadoff hitter and a top performer in Min-woo Park, though so there could be a minor hit to the top of the batting order even putting aside the pitching matchup.
Doosan Bears @ Kiwoom Heroes – 11.5 run total (6.10/5.64) – Suggested Stack(s): Bears 2-6
After the 11-run outburst from the Heroes on Tuesday the Bears answered with a roar, boasting a whopping 14 runs and riding big performances from every hitter that matters in this lineup. This one has tonight’s highest run total by a massive two runs over every other game. Vegas is telling us that the winning bats are likely to come from this game and KBO DFS owners seem to be listening, both teams will be popular.
The Bears are facing shaky Heroes cowboy Young-gun Jo. The kid has had a rough start to his KBO career and needs a lot of polish that he won’t have an opportunity to get before taking the mound, however briefly, in this one. I expect these Bears bats to absolutely smash against this starter and they land at the top of Awesemo’s stack rankings. Getting the big hitters in without duplicating lineups will be a tough feat tonight though, the Bears are drawing around 20% team ownership across both sites. Jose Miguel Fernandez ($17/$6,000) had a huge game last night and looks great again here. He’s drawing some popularity given the spot but remains one of the lower-owned among the Bears best hitters. Kun-woo Park ($13/$4,200) was back in the lineup last night but he’s been in and out so watch that situation going into lock and pivot accordingly. Jae-il Oh ($15/$4,100) is rounding into form now that he’s been back for a few games. A lower-owned bat from down the lineup to keep an eye on is Kyoung-min Hur ($8/$3,300) his unpopularity makes him a good add-on to a stack, and I expect he moves up in the lineup if Park sits.
The Heroes get the lower end of a huge game total but are still the second highest implied team of the night, putting the game-stack somewhat in play here tonight. It’s never my favorite approach but with this much of a disparity if you think you can get something unique there are worse dice rolls. The pitching matchup doesn’t look terrifying, although Jong-gi Park has made three mostly capable starts so far this year. There’s just not much experience on the pitching resume and there are professional hitters in the Heroes lineup to worry about. On DraftKings my eye is drawn immediately to the 16% ownership projection on Byung-ho Park ($14/$4,600), the slugger is basically double that on FanDuel. Dong-won Park ($9/$5,400) will be around 10% on both sites making this pair a great building block at oddly low ownership in the middle of this stack. Keon-chang Seo ($10/$4,400) is cheap, not too popular and leads the KBO in steals from the top of this lineup, don’t forget to include him.
SK Wyverns @ Samsung Lions – 8.5 run total (3.78/4.92) – Suggested Stack(s): Lions 2-3-4-6-7
The Lions got loose on this team a bit last night in a 7-1 victory that saw Jeong Choi homer for the Wyverns and not much else happen in their lineup as David Buchanan cruised to a one-run complete game win. The Lions side posted all of their runs without anyone having a must-play KBO DFS game, though Ja-wook Ko and Won-seok Lee each drove in a pair of runs.
Tae-in Won has been pitching over his head for most of the season. A 2.96 earned run average next to a 5.00 FIP means he’s going to come crashing back to Earth and you want to be on the bats facing him when he does. The only thing stopping that from being the Wyverns bats tonight is that they are the Wyverns bats. At some point I might just start replacing Wyverns paragraphs with “Romak & Choi were here.” They both are key bats to play if you go this direction as always. KBO DFS owners won’t be on this stack in any significant volume, so you can play both along with Jong-wook Ko ($7/$4,400). The rest of the lineup is shaky looking in Awesemo’s projections and flat in my home run model. If it could go negative, I think it would on a few of these guys sometimes. Ji-hoon Choi ($5/$2,900) is cheap in the two spot and would probably be one of my picks to fill out a longshot full Wyverns stack here.
Geon-wook “John Wick” Lee has been pitching well so far for SK. The Wyverns third year man is a full-time starter for the first time in his career and looks to continue his hot stretch against the mediocre Lions. Note, I didn’t say “terrible,” way to move up in the world Samsung. The Lions bats have been bouncing around this order, so we’re doing a bit of guesswork. Ja-wook Koo ($10/$4,800) should be a staple of your Lions lineups by now. Seung-gon Lee ($5/$2,800) is both cheap and interesting if he’s hitting third, I like him less later in the order. Dong-yeop Kim ($8/$3,400) ended up sliding back down the lineup last night and I expect that’s where he’ll land again tonight, but he packs power every time at the plate, making him a strong option to remember when others overlook him. Won-seok Lee ($8/$4,000) is another name to keep in mind in the middle of the order when you put this lineup together. Even a little Hae-min Park ($7/$3,000) from late in the lineup doesn’t look bad. Dammit, do I like the Lions tonight?
Keep an eye on your exposures with the Lions if you’re using an optimizer tonight. The ludicrously low pricing and decent projections are going to vault them into a lot of builds with the higher-projected more expensive teams. I have a feeling all of those builds are going to be exceedingly popular. You want to roll some of them, but this isn’t a night to just enter all of your highest projected constructions, they’ll be duped a dozen times.
Favorite KBO DFS Stack: Doosan Bears (chalky) / Kia Tigers (low-owned)
HR Call: Roberto Ramos (LG Twins)
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