Win or go home will be the theme across baseball tomorrow. The MLB DFS main slate will once again have two games after the Astros staved off elimination for another day, forcing a Game 6 against the Rays. The Braves pounded the Dodgers for 10 runs and took a big 3-1 series lead as they continue to attempt to prove that you can win the World Series without a pitching staff. The weird-looking slate of openers was all over the place today with roster construction and results, particularly with Clayton Kershaw putting up just 6.45 DraftKings points, giving up four runs and striking out just four. By far the most important, and possibly most surprising, performance was that of Braves starter Bryse Wilson, who carved up the Dodgers for a 24-point night.
The Friday slate gets back to normal with actual starters going for each team, though the length that we see from Dustin May on the hill for the Dodgers could be a question mark and a major inflection point. There are several quality bats and some changes in projected lineups given the matchups. With do-or-die baseball in both games, we could see both bullpens play a role once again as well.
MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers
Home Run Ratings
Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Atlanta Braves:Â Ronald Acuna Jr. – 14.11
Houston Astros:Â Alex Bregman – 12.04
Los Angeles Dodgers: Cody Bellinger – 11.15
Tampa Bay Rays:Â Hunter Renfroe – 2.91
MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays
(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)
We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
Astros – Alex Bregman – 3B – $4,500 / $3,700
The Astros become the road team again, as they try to force a decisive Game 7 in what would be an epic comeback from a 3-0 series deficit. The team eked out the 1-run victory with a game-winning home run by Carlos Correa in the ninth. The Rays’ overtaxed pitching staff managed to get through the game without requiring the services of staff ace Blake Snell, so he’ll be on the hill looking to close the Astros lineup down. The lefty has been dominant all season. In his 50 innings Snell had a 31% strikeout rate and a 3.06 xFIP. On the other hand, the Astros are particularly strong against left-handed pitching. Since the start of 2019, the active Astros roster has been second in baseball with a .220 ISO and first with a WRC+ 24% above average against southpaws.
Bregman is the Astros’ star third baseman, and he’s arguably underpriced at $4,500 despite the tough matchup. His $3,700 on FanDuel is definitely too low, as are many of the prices on these Astros hitters once again. Bregman is pulling the second-highest total on this team in my home run model, behind only George Springer.
In the sample that begins with the start of the 2019 season, Bregman leads the Astros against left-handed pitching with a .362 ISO, which is fourth in all of baseball in the split over that same sample, behind only Nelson Cruz, JD Martinez and, hilariously, Jordan Luplow. Over the same stretch, Bregman has struck out just 10.8% of the time against southpaws, sixth among qualified hitters in the sample, while his 14.4% walk rate sits 15th. He has 18 home runs over the stretch to go along with a huge .343/.436/.705 slash. Bregman is a fantastic hitter in a matchup against an excellent pitcher. He’s one of the better bets to come through for the Astros.
Rays – Hunter Renfroe – OFÂ – $3,200 / $2,800
You might have noticed the miniscule home run mark for Renfroe listed above. This is largely due to the opposing pitcher’s ability to keep the ball on the ground. The entire Rays team is saddled with suppressed power marks for this matchup, which could have an interesting impact on the MLB DFS slate. Framber Valdez had a 60% groundball rate through his 70.2 innings in 2020 and a 62.1% rate over 70.2 innings in 2019. The skill is real and repeatable, as demonstrated by similar numbers throughout his minor league career. Valdez paired a 26.4% strikeout rate with that excellent walk rate, making him a weapon for the Astros in 2020. The strikeouts are also real; over his minor league career, Valdez was well over 20% at most levels. If the Astros are going to force Game 7, Valdez taking the power out of this Rays lineup is going to be a big part of it.
Of the various Rays hitters who we know can go deep against even the best pitchers, Renfroe rates out the best in my home run model and is the least likely to draw significant ownership. I expect most of the public to trend toward Randy Arozarena if they’re looking at right-handed bats from this team. He’s been on fire and far more in the public eye during the postseason. Renfroe is the one we should be looking for, however. In 184 plate appearances against lefties since the start of 2019 he’s put up a monster .344 ISO and has a WRC+ 24% above average. Renfroe has struck out 24.5% of the time against lefties but he does walk 13.6% of the time. The outfielder’s 16 home runs lead the Rays over the course of the sample, though his .214/.321/.558 slash demonstrates the all-or-nothing nature of the play.
Dodgers – Justin Turner – 3B – $4,700 / $3,100
Turner is a rock-solid veteran third baseman, and he costs far to little on FanDuel. His DraftKings price is more in line with his quality, which could render him less popular than he should be in what is likely going to be a good spot against sub-replacement-level starter Josh Tomlin. On either site, Turner is firmly in play in both Dodgers stacks and as a one-off third baseman.
Over his 175 plate appearances in 2020, Turner had another terrific season at the plate, putting up a .307/.400/.460 slash with a WRC+ 40% above average. For his career, the 35-year-old has a .292/.369/.469 slash with a .177 ISO and a WRC+ 30% above average while striking out just 14.6% of the time. Turner is a fantastic option on any slate. If the starter is Tomlin, there is nothing to worry about with Turner against same-handed pitching. Since the start of 2019, he has a .303/.388/.479 slash with a WRC+ 34% above average in the split.
Braves – Ozzie Albies – 2B – $4,500 / $3,700
Star second baseman Albies is a terrific option on most MLB DFS slates. He should be hitting in the middle of the Braves order, and his pricing is slightly lower than it should be on both sites. Albies is no secret, but he might not reach extreme levels of popularity due to the matchup against Walker Buehler. In his 36.2 innings in 2020, Buehler had a 3.93 xFIP and a 28.6% strikeout rate. For his career, he has struck out the same 28.6% of hitters while putting up a sparkling 3.38 xFIP and a 3.15 ERA.
Albies missed parts of 2020, ending up with just 124 plate appearances, but he still managed to hit six home runs and swipe three bases in that time. Over his 702 plate appearances in 2019, the switch-hitter hit 24 home runs and stole 15 bases on his way to a .295/.352/.500 slash with a .205 ISO and a WRC+ 17% above average. He also hit 24 home runs in 2018 and stole 14 bases, making him the model of recent consistency in full seasons.
Albies does get more of his quality as a right-handed hitter against a lefty, but on a short slate like this we can’t be too picky. The second baseman has a career .256/.314/.438 slash and a WRC+ five percent below average as a lefty against right-handed pitching, with a good but not great .182 ISO and 39 of his 60 career home runs.
Albies is a star-caliber player who hits in a key spot in what is a highly potent offense. The Braves have been rolling all season, and the team is an excellent option for stacking as usual. Pairing Albies with his infield counterpart Dansby Swanson is one of my favorite approaches to this team. It’s an atypical build overall and leads to somewhat unique, high-upside lineup constructions. Stacking those two with hitters above them in this lineup is the approach more likely to succeed, but there might be some sneaky value in looking to the bottom of the order and hitters like Nick Markakis and Cristian Pache to work with the infielders.
HR Call: Alex Bregman (Astros)
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