MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel: August 10

If you got a chance to catch the Early Bird pod with me and Jason Floyd already, then you know how my Sunday of MLB DFS went (although you could listen again on Apple Podcasts or Spotify). Loading up on the Yankees was looking great early while Charlie Morton was struggling, but a combination of the Yankees’ inability to deliver the one big hit and Morton coming out of the game led to just three runs and an under-performing stack in the end. The piece of the Yankees you did want was starter James Paxton, who was excellent through most of the day before yielding some late scoring. Paxton seemed to harness his stuff despite an ongoing lack of velocity that remains a concern.

Around the rest of the league, we saw the Brewers stack go off against the Reds, including four runs against starter Sonny Gray who did still manage seven strikeouts. Nathan Eovaldi posted a very strong 10-strikeout game against the Blue Jays, while Mitch Moreland supported his cause by blasting two more home runs. Both were in top lineups across GPPs.

Oh, and the entire Cardinals-Pirates series is cancelled to start the week, setting the Cardinals back by another series in what is rapidly becoming a situation that can’t be fixed with make-up double-headers.

Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Starling Marte – 6.57

Atlanta Braves: n/a

Baltimore Orioles: n/a

Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez – 7.68

Chicago Cubs: n/a

Chicago White Sox: Eloy Jimenez – 13.05

Cincinnati Reds: n/a

Cleveland Indians: n/a

Colorado Rockies: Matt Kemp – 8.76 (Bonus: Nolan Arenado + Trevor Story both 11+)

Detroit Tigers: C.J. Cron – 8.35

Houston Astros: Michael Brantley – 4.09

Kansas City Royals: n/a

Los Angeles Angels: Jo Adell – 6.42

Los Angeles Dodgers: Joc Pederson – 11.96

Miami Marlins: n/a

Milwaukee Brewers: Logan Morrison – 6.70

Minnesota Twins: Nelson Cruz – 10.26

New York Mets: Pete Alonso – 8.79

New York Yankees: n/a

Oakland Athletics: Matt Olson – 14.16

Philadelphia Phillies: n/a

Pittsburgh Pirates: n/a

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado – 4.38

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Belt – 6.75

Seattle Mariners: Daniel Vogelbach – 7.02

St. Louis Cardinals: n/a

Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows – 6.06

Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo – 14.47

Toronto Blue Jays: n/a

Washington Nationals: Juan Soto – 10.93

Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros – None Yet, See Notes

There is a bit of a different approach with this one. The Astros are at home to take on the visiting Giants tomorrow, and they’re bound to be the clear favorites when the line finally posts. As far as I can tell, the Giants are starting Logan Webb. The young starter has been just OK so far this season; his 4.77 FIP exposes the 2.13 ERA to a degree.

The thing that interests me here is the ability to induce the ground ball that he’s shown at most stops in his career, including his small 2019 sample where he was somewhat above league average as a rookie. Through his minor league career, Webb has shown the ability to reach 60% in ground ball rate. I’m not interested in the pitcher for MLB DFS purposes at all, but I am interested on the impact that could potentially have on what I expect to be a popular lineup tomorrow.

The Astros are somewhat known as a fly-ball-hitting team that relies on their ability to dramatically limit soft contact and elevate the ball. They rank third in the league in medium contact so far in 2020 while ranking as the team that makes the least soft contact. They rank fifth in the league in fly ball rate over the last three seasons as a team, but most of their key hitters — Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve and George Springer appear to have actually been around league average in both fly ball rate and ground ball rate over the last two seasons. Only Alex Bregman truly stands out as a continuous fly ball threat, and we know he can turn plenty of those into home runs.

I’m very curious to see how the Astros rank in Awesemo’s top MLB DFS stacks tomorrow. Typically a lineup of fly ball hitters should project and perform well as a group against a ground ball pitcher, but that doesn’t appear to be the case here. Instead we’re going to have a shaky young unproven ground ball pitcher who could potentially limit this team’s upside, if he’s able to harness his stuff for the night.

Again, this is in no way endorsing the Webb play, just keep an eye on the Astros. If they’re trending over-owned but they don’t rank as high as we might have otherwise expected in the stacks tool, we may know the reason why and be able to safely shift our exposures … to other teams that will find ways to cruelly disappoint us.

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox – Rays – 1-2-4-5-7 – Meadows – Lowe – Choi – Tsutsugo – Renfroe

This is another one without a posted pitcher, but I think we’re getting an opener-based bullpen game from the Red Sox here. The starter that comes back with my data call is Colten Brewer, who is a reliever with five appearances already this season. Over his 74 major league innings, all out of the pen, Brewer has posted a 4.85 xFIP and a 21.1% strikeout rate with a 13.3% walk rate. The rest of the Red Sox bullpen has seen the sixth-most relief innings so far in 2020 at 67.1, turning in a 4.15 FIP and a 1.20 HR/9. Their 1.37 WHIP ranks 11th worst in MLB, while both their strikeout and walk rates are around the middle of the league. The Rays could see some opportunity in this one if we do get the bullpen game.

Getting Austin Meadows back into this lineup is exactly what the Rays needed. The dynamic young outfielder gets things done with both his bat and his legs. Meadows spent probably too long as a top prospect in the Pirates system before finally getting called to the Show in 2018 and then being traded to the Rays. The lefty has responded by putting up 39 home runs, 104 runs, 109 RBIs and 17 stolen bases in his 799 plate appearances since arriving in the majors. He’s carrying a .288/.352/.531 slash for his career, with a WRC+ 33% above league average and a .243 ISO. Meadows is a mandatory part of most of my Rays stacks.

The Rays get most of their power from the left side. Ji-Man Choi has struggled to get going so far in 2020, with just one home run and an ugly .189/.295/.378 slash in his 44 plate appearances. Still, this is a slugger that we know can get to right-handed pitching and he should see at least a couple opportunities on that side of the split before the Sox can really start playing the matchups game with their overworked pen. Since we have unpredictable handedness to a degree, I’m happy to mix and match most of the early Rays hitters in early builds with an eye on how things firm up toward lock when lineups post. If Yoshi Tsutsugo is in the lineup, I like the power available in his bat. The 28-year-old Japanese slugger is also slow out of the gate in 2020 but was a regular for more than 20 home runs a year in the power-deficient NPB. Brandon Lowe provides an interesting and affordable option at second base from early in this lineup, while Yandy Diaz makes enough contact and drives the ball well enough to be relevant given his regular place in the top half of this lineup.

If we get Kevin Kiermaier or Hunter Renfroe mixed into things on the back end of this stack, it could be a solid way to mix things up in your MLB DFS lineups if the Rays are trending toward popularity. Renfroe has hit 25 or more home runs in each of his three full seasons despite never reaching 500 plate appearances. He has power to burn and gets plenty of it against either hand. Kiermaier is more of a splits play for me. If we know there’s a right-handed opener starting, he’s at least in consideration and he should be a regular mix-in for multiple builds with the Rays. Kiermaier has missed so much time over the last few seasons with lingering injuries that people tend to forget how good he is when he’s on the field. Seeing his most plate appearances since 2015, Kiermaier hit 14 home runs and stole 19 bases in his 480 opportunities in 2019, with 11 of the home runs coming against right-handed pitchers. Neither functions as a true wraparound play. They simply don’t get on base reliably enough, but as a potential base-clearer at low ownership from late in a stack, you could do worse than including one. Any of Mike Brosseau, Jose Martinez or Manuel Margot would also be in play, depending on how the lineup falls.

HR Call: Matt Olson (Athletics)

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.