MLB DFS Picks: HRs, Stacks, Ownership DraftKings + FanDuel

As of when I’m typing this, the Braves are outscoring every other game that is still currently underway combined. The 29-run total in the seventh inning has gone way past bananas, we’re into coconuts territory here, and they’ve completely shattered MLB DFS for the night. That’s a week’s worth of baseball out of this team in a single night. With the Brewers going off for 19 on the early slate, it’s been quite a day of baseball.

Tomorrow has a short slate in the afternoon and a six-game main slate in the evening on both sites. With another day of haves and have nots in the pitching department, it’s going to be an interesting exercise in finding value stacks again tomorrow on DraftKings. FanDuel’s “play whoever, have fun” format is a bit less of a difficult situation.

If you missed it, I changed things up slightly in Stack Slants today. Instead of looking at the best options to be the top team that happened to be going under-owned, I was looking for specific three-man value plays that would allow us to get to a specific construction from top offenses on the board, namely a catcher, first base, third base, shortstop, outfield five-man stack. That has some variability from team to team; it’s easier to skip catcher and play a second outfielder with the Dodgers than it is with the White Sox, for example. Today we looked at the Marlins and Orioles and zeroed in some good options that connected well. We might take that approach again tomorrow, depending on how the board looks, so check in and see what happens.

MLB DFS Quick Hits: Top HR Options, Stacks and Pitchers

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are our holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I’m going to give one of the top choices from each team.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Walker – 5.31

Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman – 14.20

Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Mountcastle – 5.60

Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez – 14.07

Chicago Cubs: Kyle Schwarber – 5.15

Chicago White Sox: n/a

Cincinnati Reds: Eugenio Suarez – 12.64

Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez – 13.56

Colorado Rockies: n/a

Detroit Tigers: n/a

Houston Astros: George Springer – 8.86

Kansas City Royals: Hunter Dozier – 5.68

Los Angeles Angels: Anthony Rendon – 9.30

Los Angeles Dodgers: A.J. Pollock – 16.05

Miami Marlins: Corey Dickerson – 7.81

Milwaukee Brewers: n/a

Minnesota Twins: n/a

New York Mets: n/a

New York Yankees: Clint Frazier – 14.23

Oakland Athletics: Marcus Semien – 9.00

Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew McCutchen – 10.22

Pittsburgh Pirates: n/a

San Diego Padres: Manny Machado – 12.36

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Belt – 6.47

Seattle Mariners: n/a

St. Louis Cardinals: n/a

Tampa Bay Rays: Austin Meadows – 10.75

Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo – 8.23

Toronto Blue Jays: n/a

Washington Nationals: Asdrubal Cabrera – 12.47

MLB DFS Stacks & Ownership Plays

(Quick note: if it says 1-5 it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5, otherwise I’ll specify spots)

We’re picking a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs – Reds – 2-6 – Castellanos – Winker – Suarez – Moustakas – Goodwin

The Reds are going to be ridiculously popular on DraftKings tomorrow, but a lot of the weight might be on the back of this lineup for the extreme salary value they provide. Keep an eye on individual ownership tomorrow to answer that question.

The team looks to be in an excellent spot for offense, and possibly more importantly, their team salaries are way down across the projected lineup. You can easily build to a variety of constructions with quality bats from this team and the big bats from some of the better overall offenses on the board.

The matchup against Adbert Alzolay has the Reds drawing one of the highest early implied team totals on the MLB DFS main slate. The pitcher is making his third start of the year. He went five and struck out six back in mid-August but only lasted 2.2 innings while allowing two runs and walking five in his last appearance. Over his 21 major league innings, Alzolay has a 5.22 xFIP and has walked 16.3% of hitters. Throw some bats at this kid.

The Reds have several very high-end lefty bats to choose from. Mike Moustakas may still have been on the IL the last time we talked about team. The big lefty has first and second base eligibility and costs just $4,600 on DraftKings. He’s a second baseman for a ridiculous $2,600 on FanDuel. Moustakas has hit 49 home runs in his last 917 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers and has a .243 ISO and a WRC+ 11% above average in the sample that dates to the start of 2018. He’s a fantastic option on both sites and an anchor of Reds stacks.

Speaking of fantastic options for power, Eugenio Suarez hits from the right side of the plate immediately ahead of Moustakas in this lineup. The right-handed slugger has a .270 ISO against same-handed pitching since the start of 2018. His 70 home runs against right-handed pitchers ranks him second in baseball behind only Mike Trout over that sample. This is the part where I say: “The third baseman costs just $4,600 on DraftKings and an unfair $3,500 on FanDuel” and then we put him in our lineups.

You and I have talked about Jesse Winker and how highly I regard his lefty bat. The kid has done nothing to tarnish that so far this season, putting up a killer .286/.406/.588 slash with 10 home runs and a WRC+ 61% above average coming into action on Wednesday. The outfielder’s price is easily paid at just $3,900 in this spot. Since coming into the league, Winker has 36 home runs and a .217 ISO against right-handed pitching over 816 plate appearances, eight of them this year.

Nicholas Castellanos has been uncharacteristically hit and miss this year. He’s usually far more reliable in the average and on-base department and his power has been a secondary skill. In 2020 this has completely flipped. The outfielder is riding just a .237/.325/.547 split but has a ridiculous .311 ISO and 12 home runs this year. Against same-handed pitching since the start of 2018, Castellanos has a .221 ISO and 46 home runs. He’s firmly in play as a part of Reds stacks here.

Joey Votto still sets the table relatively well with a .345 on-base that should still trend north given his usual performance. For $4,100 on DraftKings and occupying the first base spot, I have mixed feelings about the aging hitter. For $2,700 on FanDuel with the ability to wield multiple corner infielders, I’m happy to get to Votto.

The value in the Reds lineup is going to come from the back end. This is where it’s going to get interesting for builds with expensive teams like the Dodgers, Padres and Phillies. Depending on how crunches are coming up and how popular this team is trending, it could be interesting just to take a different approach and play the better and more expensive bats from the Reds with some of the less expensive back ends of those teams instead. When the field is going one way, you can get extremely profitable by going another.

I feel like everyone is going to be getting to some combination of the affordable Reds we’ve mentioned along with Brian Goodwin for just $2,900, Shogo Akiyama and Jose Garcia at just $2,200 and Tucker Barnhart catching for just $2,300. Of the quartet, Goodwin and Barnhart should justifiably be the most popular. Barnhart comes through for power from time to time; he’s hit three home runs and has a .164 ISO in his 82 plate appearances on the season. As a switch-hitting catcher, he makes an interesting play, but don’t look to him as a one-off if he’s trending for heavy ownership.

Goodwin brings another lefty bat to this team’s outfield. His cheap price and relatively decent performance over 126 plate appearances should get him into a lot of lineups. In 600 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers since the start of 2018, Goodwin has a .186 ISO and a WRC+ 4% above average. He’s in play for MLB DFS purposes.

The other two are more mix-and-match options. Garcia is a highly regarded prospect with projectable game power, but he’s probably not ready yet and would still be in the minors in a normal season. Over 35 plate appearances so far, the kid has struggled to just a .147/.171/.147 slash, he’s never been regarded for his hit tool, but he will need to make contact to provide any power. Akiyama is a hit-and-speed type of player who has delivered on neither since joining the Reds in the offseason as a somewhat highly touted signing out of the Japanese league. The outfielder is very cheap and likely to be unpopular given his .210/.314/.267 slash with a .057 ISO and a WRC+ 37% below average. We can hold our noses and get to both in small doses given what we expect from this lineup.

Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees – Yankees – 1-5 – LeMahieu – Voit – Hicks – Frazier – Torres

I’ve spent the last few days bashing my poor struggling Yankees every time they’ve been on a slate I covered. The team has been downright lousy since mid-August. If you’re wondering why your Yankees stacks haven’t been coming through, the team has a .136 ISO and a WRC+ 22% below average over the last 14 days. Only the Pirates are worse with a .128 ISO over that time, though their 79 WRC+ is better than the Bronx Bombers.

Some of the Yankees’ struggles make sense. They’re once again dealing with an overwhelming amount of injuries. The Yankees fired their training staff last off-season after a rash of injuries. They should fire this one, hire a new one, fire that one, then find a competent one before we get to the next full season.

Still, this is a juicy matchup for this team at home against a rookie lefty starter. Keegan Akin is a fairly well-regarded prospect who has pitched 13 innings in the Show and has struck out 27.8% of hitters but walked 13% with a 4.65 xFIP. Those numbers are exactly in line with who he’s been in the minors. In his most recent start he went 5.1 and struck out eight of these same Yankees while walking four and yielding no runs. He gave up just three hits and manged to dance his way out of trouble every time. He’ll be lucky to repeat the trick.

The lineup is not completely devoid of talent with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton still on the IL. They recently got Gleyber Torres back from injury and they have a lineup that many teams would envy from one through seven in the projected batting order.

With Gary Sanchez struggling and bouncing in and out of the lineup as Manager Aaron Boone tries to wake him up through benching, I can’t say for sure he’ll be playing. If the catcher is in the lineup, I’m always willing to get to him. He’s priced at $4,700 on DraftKings and his .125/.229/.337 slash is likely to scare a lot of the public away at that price. At $2,800 he’s in play on the blue site as well, though I’m not sure I would use him as a one-off. Sanchez’ calling card is his ability to crush the ball when he actually makes contact. When he does, Sanchez is in the 95th percentile in barrels, the 91st in exit velocity and the 91st in hard hit rate. His struggles to make contact are the only thing separating Sanchez from superstardom, for which he was seemingly on track just two years ago.

Clint Frazier has been providing a steady bat for the Yankees in the absence of the star outfielders who keep him off this team when they’re healthy. His .276/.396/.540 slash, five home runs and .263 ISO are all among the team leaders. Coming into action on Wednesday, Frazier was at 520 plate appearances for his career, which can be considered about a full season. Over that stretch he has a .258/.323/.475 slash with a .217 ISO and a WRC+ 10% above average. He’s hit 21 home runs and 31 doubles.

In 688 plate appearances since the start of last season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit 21 home runs and 34 doubles. Over 749 plate appearances, Tommy Pham has hit 23 home runs and 34 doubles. Frazier is on the same level as a prospect and a player, he’s simply lacked opportunity. At just $4,500 and likely hitting in the cleanup spot, Frazier is very much in play for me in Yankees stacks.

Torres is another tip-top prospect that the Yankees acquiredm but he’s been given the opportunity to prove himself. In 2020 he’s struggled then been hurt. Over his 105 plate appearances, Torres has just a .225/.343/.303 slash with one home run and a .079 ISO. Unless his arms literally fell off and he’s been hitting with his feet, this is something that’s going to regress to the talent that we know he possesses. He’s hitting fifth in the projected lineup and costs $4,900, making him one of the more affordable top options at shortstop on tomorrow’s slate. In 604 plate appearances in his sophomore season, Torres hit 38 home runs and put up a .256 ISO, there is nothing to worry about here. Be ahead of the curve on the turnaround.

Miguel Andujar is back in the Yankees lineup while Gio Urshela is injured. Andujar is a forgotten man in this lineup and needs to seize the opportunity while he has it. At $3,700 and playable at both third base and outfield, he’s a great option from late in the lineup. In hist last full season in 2018, as a rookie, Andujar hit 27 home runs and struck out just 16% of the time in 606 plate appearances. His .230 ISO and WRC+ 30% above average should have rendered him immune to getting Wally Pipp‘d out of a job by a player like Urshela, but here we are.

Brett Gardner say he’s healthy and feeling close, which is about the most positive thing I have to say about the longest-tenured Yankee and one of my favorites from this recent generation of the team’s players. Sometimes you’re rooting for the laundry, sometimes you get to watch an entire career unfold and really root for a player. That’s when sports are special. Unfortunately, MLB DFS is cutthroat and I’m not sure my pal Brett makes the list at just .170/.295/.309 with three home runs on the season. In 309 plate appearances against fellow southpaws since the start of 2018, Gardner has eight home runs and a .219/.280/.339 slash with a WRC+ 33% below average. We can do better for the money.

The spend should come up top with this lineup, with D.J. LeMahieu, Luke Voit and Aaron Hicks. LeMahieu is simply one of the best hitters in baseball over the last few years. In his last 201 plate appearances against a lefty, dating to the start of 2018, the second baseman has a .368/.428/.610 slash with a WRC+ 75% above average while striking out just 11.9% of the time. Hicks is sixth on the team in the sample with 12 home runs in 285 plate appearances, along with his .200 ISO and WRC+ 8% above average he’s in play despite struggling this season.

Voit has crushed the world since coming to the Bronx. The right-handed masher has even won me over with his performance, though I still wish he hit left-handed. His .297 ISO in our sample is third on the team and he’s carrying a WRC+ 43% above average with 16 home runs in just 208 plate appearances. The trio or any individual piece of it is in play as big parts of Yankees stacks.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.