Wednesday, Sept. 21, brings split-slate action with half a dozen early games, culminating in a nine-game featured slate with a first pitch at at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (9/21)
Main Slate Stack:
Texas Rangers vs. LHP Tucker Davidson — 4.7 implied runs
It has been quite some time since Texas was recommended in this article, however, today’s matchup against Tucker Davidson will rectify that situation. Davidson came over to the Angels from the Braves in a “change of scenery” move for closer Raisel Iglesias. Aside from a 1.2 inning outing with Atlanta during the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, Tucker had toiled in the minors for six seasons. While he does have some strikeout upside, he has had control issues with an increasing walk rate at each level of competition.
Over six starts with the Halos, the 26-year-old rookie has been saddled with a 7.24 ERA, a 6.81 FIP and 17 walks with 17 strikeouts in his 27.1 innings of work. He has not had much success fooling lefties or righties, so he can be targeted from both sides of the plate.
The Rangers have a top-heavy lineup and while that does add to the synergy of a stack, the back half of their order can easily turn over a 1-2-3 inning and shorten games. Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia are the batters swinging the stick from the right-side of the plate with plenty of power upside. Corey Seager and Nate Lowe are the lefties, with each possessing a long track record of success in same-handed matchups. Rookies Josh Jung and Bubba Thompson are discount dandies that can be used to average down the cost of a full-stack, particularly on DraftKings.
Late Slate Stack:
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LHP Madison Bumgarner — 5.6 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has once again identified Madison Bumgarner as the target du jour. This paid off handsomely on Friday, when the venerable veteran allowed three home runs to the Padres. The Dodgers split their doubleheader with the Diamondbacks yesterday. Most of their key regulars played in both games, so we could see a hitter or two getting the evening off for this matchup.
Los Angeles leads Houston by 5.5 games for the best overall record and is nine games up on New York for the National League honors. There is always a risk of their stars being pulled for pinch hitters if this game is well in hand, but this spot looks to be the place to pivot if the Coors Field weather takes a turn for the worse.
Over his last eight starts, Bumgarner has been unlucky with an 8.08 ERA and 5.57 FIP. However, he has clearly fallen down a few notches from even two seasons ago and his home runs are trending up while the strikeouts are moving in the opposite direction.
Chris Taylor, Trayce Thompson and Hanser Alberto are the least likely options to be removed for pinch hitters. The value created by rostering two of the three will facilitate loading up on the spendy options on DraftKings where Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts are all $5,600 or more.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Pitching Target:
LHP Robbie Ray at Oakland Athletics — 2.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,600 | FanDuel $10,000
Reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray is in a delightful matchup against the hapless Oakland offense. While Ray tends to have mercurial results, he typically dominates bad teams. The Athletics have the second-lowest scoring efficiency in the league against left-handed hurlers, ahead of only the Marlins. Tonight’s projected lineup has a 24.6% strikeout rate over the last two seasons against southpaws. While the entire lineup may be right-handed tonight, only Sean Murphy and situational specialist Chad Pinder are worrisome.
Secondary Pitching Target:
RHP Luis Severino vs. Pittsburgh Pirates — 3.0 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,700 | FanDuel $9,100
It has been two months since Luis Severino saw action in The Show after recovering from a strained latissimus dorsi muscle suffered in mid-July. The veteran did make three rehabilitation starts with one coming at each level of the minors. This culminated on Thursday with 57 pitches for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre where he struck out six hitters. Something in the 70-to-80 pitch range is a reasonable expectation tonight. Normally this would not even be on the radar as the price per pitch ratio is not particularly favorable. However, the matchup against the Pirates is enticing and most of the other “good” pitchers in the player pool are in difficult matchups. There are enough September callups in the infield and outfield at near minimum salaries, that we can take a chance on even a partial workload from Severino tonight.
Additional Opportunities
Currently, Jordan Lyles has a 3.5 over/under strikeout prop in his matchup with the the Tigers. The Stokastic projections are forecasting 4.2 strikeouts and a 60% win probability. Detroit has been one of the worst teams against right-handed pitching this season making this an intriguing situation where we can look to Lyles who is not typically thought of as a strikeout artist.
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Other Pitching Options
- RHP Lance McCullers at Tampa Bay Rays (Early)
- RHP Lance Lynn vs. Cleveland Guardians (Main)
- RHP Jordan Lyles vs. Detroit Tigers (Main)
- RHP Triston McKenzie at Chicago White Sox (Main)
- RHP Miles Mikolas at San Diego Padres (Late)
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Other Hitting Options
- Rafael Devers at RHP Chase Anderson (Early)
- Coors Field Extravaganza (Main, weather permitting)
- Josh Naylor at RHP Lance Lynn (Main)
- Gary Sanchez at LHP Daniel Lynch (Main)
- Paul Goldschmidt at LHP Blake Snell (Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
There is potential late inning rain in the Kansas City forecast, though models will be more accurate closer to first pitch. Coors Field also has potential precipitation and the temperature is down about 25 degrees from Tuesday.
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