Monday, October 3, kicks off the final three days of the MLB regular season with an 11-game featured slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (10/3)
Main Slate Stack:
New York Mets vs. RHP Cory Abbott — 4.9 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stack Tool likes the Mets in their matchup with Cory Abbott and one of the worst bullpens in the league. There is still a chance that New York is able to catch Atlanta for the National League East title, but they have to win out at a minimum. Over his last 250 batters faced, Abbott has a 6.60 xFIP with an 11.0% walk rate. When he gives up runs, they are usually in bunches, which is the perfect stack situation.
Look to the usual suspects in the New York offense with Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo and Eduardo Escobar is the first level of talent. They can be augmented with Daniel Vogelbach and Tyler Naquin from the back half of the lineup for differentiation, along with a more popular Jeff McNeil, who should be working out of the three-hole.
Late Slate Stack:
Los Angeles Angels at RHP Adrian Martinez — 4.4 implied runs
Adrian Martinez should be thrilled to starting a new page on the calendar after a disastrous September. In 24.1 innings across five starts, the 25-year-old allowed a 7.03 ERA and ceded seven home runs. While neither team has much to play for, Shohei Ohtani is battling Aaron Judge for MVP votes and we can expect him to be in the lineup. The Angels have most of their potential production consolidated in Ohtani, Mike Trout, Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward. While this does lead to some quick innings from the back half of the order, the top half is fully capable of producing crooked numbers on their own.
Other Hitting Options
- Corey Dickerson at RHP Mitch Keller (Early)
- Hunter Renfroe vs. LHP Tommy Henry (Main)
- Joey Meneses at RHP Carlos Carrasco (Main)
- Juan Soto vs. RHP John Brebbia (Late)
- Jesse Winker vs. RHP Bryan Garcia (Late)
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Pitching Target:
RHP Brandon Woodruff vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — 2.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,600 | FanDuel $10,700
Brandon Woodruff easily rates out with the best fantasy projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to the Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool. This is a must-win game for Milwaukee, which trails Philadelphia by two games for the final National League Wild Card slot. Woodruff has rattled off four straight wins with double-digit strikeouts and only four total runs allowed. The projected Arizona lineup is average at best, and this should lead to another strong showing from Woodruff.
Secondary Pitching Target:
RHP Aaron Nola at Houston Astros — 3.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,400 | FanDuel $10,800
There are motivation and workload questions with most of the other top-tier pitchers tonight. Lance McCullers Jr. and Houston are locked into the second-best record in the land and the best in the American League. It would be a surprise to see more than five innings or 80 pitches from McCullers, and there is also a chance a few regular hitters get the day off today as well.
Philadelphia is two games ahead of Milwaukee for the final postseason ticket, so it behooves them to go all out to cement their playoff status. Aaron Nola has been sublime down the stretch, with a 2.93 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 27.2 September innings. This is far from an easy matchup, but if a few of the Houston understudies crack the lineup, it will look a lot better.
Other Pitching Options
George Kirby vs. Detroit Tigers: Seattle is still mathematically able to catch Toronto for the best Wild Card record and they are just 1.5 games ahead of Tampa Bay, so it behooves them to go for it, but that is no guarantee of a workload for Kirby. In his favor, however, is the best matchup possible for a right-handed hurler, as he squares off against a pathetic Detroit offense.
Bailey Ober at Chicago White Sox: In three September starts, Bailey Ober allowed just three runs over 17.1 innings with a solid 18 strikeouts. This includes 7.1 shutout innings against tonight’s opponent last Tuesday, along with a career-high 10 strikeouts.
Carlos Carrasco vs. Washington Nationals: The Mets dropped three straight against Atlanta and are now two games behind in the National League East. They have clinched a Wild Card spot but can still catch the Braves if they win out and Atlanta loses two games. Any pitcher facing the Nationals is in play, and Carlos Carrasco should be able to earn at least a quality start tonight.
Additional Opportunities
Brandon Woodruff should be a mainstay in our DFS lineups, but we can also hedge a little of the downside risk by looking at the under with his lofty 8.5 over/under on his strikeout prop. Yes, he has four straight games with 10 or more strikeouts, but getting to nine is still a tall order. The Stokastic MLB DFS projections are forecasting 7.3 strikeouts and a 68% that he falls under the 8.5 milestone. The -124 moneyline is reasonable, and this works out to a solid 25% expected return on investment, aka xROI, as calculated by OddsShopper.
If this wager feels a bit risky, you can still navigate things at an advantage with a RISK FREE BET up to $1,000 on BetMGM.
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Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
There is rain throughout the day in Baltimore, and it would not be a surprise if they turn their tilt with Toronto into a doubleheader tomorrow.
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