Wednesday Sept. 7, brings split-slate action with six afternoon games getting underway at 3:05 p.m. ET followed by a six-game featured slate with the standard 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (9/7)
Main Slate: Chicago Cubs vs. LHP Mike Minor — 4.3 implied runs
Tonight Chicago is rising up the ranks of the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool with an exploitable matchup against Mike Minor. The last three seasons have been rough for the 34-year-old southpaw, though this year has clearly been the nadir of his career. Things have been messy across the board with career lows in walk and home run rates, ERA, FIP, xFIP along with a whopping 2.13 home runs per nine innings.
Even focusing on his last three campaigns, aside from an 8.35 strikeouts-per-nine-innings rate, the venerable hurler has posted a 5.41 ERA, 1.71 home runs per nine innings along with an unsightly 2.76 walks per nine innings across 299.2 frames. Naturally, we will want to focus on the right-handed hitters tonight and the Cubs will be running out a full complement in this matchup.
Willson Contreras (ankle) is on the injured list, but that just opens the door for veteran Yan Gomes to be in the lineup. Throughout his nomadic career, the one constant has been his success against southpaws. Rookie Seiya Suzuki is a strong option and he should be near the top of the order, which gives him a high likelihood of getting five plate appearances.
Franmil Reyes was claimed off waivers and with so many openings in the Chicago lineup, he has been able to do what he does best, which is swing from his heels and display his light-tower power. Though he strikes out in nearly one third of his plate appearances, he also has an elite .212 ISO in his last 236 righty-lefty matchups. Switch-hitter Ian Happ should be in the heart of the order and he can be used to round out full stacks, along with rookie Nelson Velazquez, who has some pop and is not afraid to swipe second base if the pitcher is not giving him the attention he deserves.
Late Slate: San Diego Padres vs. LHP Tommy Henry — 4.8 implied runs
Rookie Tommy Henry has seen mixed results through his six appearances in The Show. in three outings he limited the White Sox, Cardinals and Pirates to one run each, with the latter two teams getting theirs via a solo home run. In his other three starts, he has allowed 14 runs in 14.1 innings, while also issuing 11 free passes. That works out to an 8.79 ERA against the combined offenses of the Phillies, Guardians and Rockies (in Coors Field). The truth is likely somewhere in the middle, though the major projection systems are not too kind assigning him a per-nine strikeout rate ranging from 6.6-to-8.4, which works out to something well below league average.
Manny Machado, Wil Myers and switch-hitting Josh Bell all have the platoon advantage and that should be the first trio to target. Former Washington phenom Juan Soto is always in play against same-handed pitching and if Ha-seong Kim is leading off, he can be the final piece in five-man San Diego stacks tonight.
Early Slate: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RHP Alex Cobb — 5.3 implied runs
This afternoon it is going to be reaching triple-digits in Los Angeles, which vastly increases potential offensive output. The Dodgers are well positioned to be the countermove against the Coors Field crowd which will be flocking to a 90-degree game in Denver, with a run total pushing 12 and potentially cresting over that benchmark.
Alex Cobb will be toeing the rubber for the Giants against the veritable All-Star lineup that the Dodgers run out every game. That is far from being a hyperbolic statement, as Los Angeles has three former MVPs along with six other hitters who have all played in the Midsummer Classic during their careers. While Cobb is a solid pitcher who can coax ground balls from most hitters, two of his four worst games have been at the hands of the Dodgers this season. The combination of a loaded lineup and global warming make keeping Los Angeles in check a tall order.
Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are two of the three former MVPs in the lineup and they form a fantastic foundation for all stacks. Add in likely future MVP Trea Turner plus the enigmatic Max Muncy and this is a juggernaut that keeps pitchers lying away at night staring into the abyss. Then we get to the back half of the lineup with catcher Will Smith, veteran Justin Turner, utility man Chris Taylor and, of course, slumping sluggers Joey Gallo and the third and final MVP Cody Bellinger, and there are plenty of ways to differentiate full-stacks. How wild is it that Bellinger, who was the National League MVP in 2019, is hitting out of the nine-hole.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Target: RHP Cristian Javier vs. Texas Rangers — 5.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,900 | FanDuel $11,200
The dichotomy of pitching styles between extreme ground specialist and lefty Framber Valdez to hard-throwing right-handed Cristian Javier should help keep the Texas offense in a tizzy. Do not worry about Javier’s 46-pitch outing in relief on Aug. 26, that was just a hole in the Houston schedule where it needed to shorten its six-man rotation. Tonight we should expect something north of 90 pitches for the 25-year-old in his fifth matchup against the Rangers. In the previous four tilts, Javier has logged 22 innings with a 3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 27 strikeouts, ceding just three round-trippers. Early projections have Alek Manoah gaining more traction with his matchup in Baltimore, making Javier a savvy tournament alternative.
Secondary Target: RHP Yu Darvish vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — 3.5 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,000 | FanDuel $10,800
Though he started off his 11th MLB campaign with fewer strikeouts than expected, Yu Darvish has continued to improve as he tweaks his grip and throwing mechanics to account for the lack of “sticky stuff” allowed to be used by pitchers. Stokastic contributor Greg Ehrenberg pointed out that Darvish has even acknowledged this in interviews, which allowed Stokastic followers to be ahead of the curve.
Check out Greg and other Stokastic MLB DFS contributors every weekday at 5 p.m. ET leading up to lock on the Stokastic YouTube channel.
Darvish is still at a career low 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings, however, in his last dozen appearances he has 96 whiffs in 80.1 innings for a very respectable 10.7 rate. Though the projected Arizona lineup has struck out just 18.2% of the time against right-handed hurlers this season, Darvish is still in an excellent spot to bring smiles to his DFS supporters tonight. Something in the six to seven-inning range with around a strikeout per frame is a reasonable expectation along with the Padres being two-to-one favorites to claim victory tonight.
Early Slate Target: RHP Spencer Strider at Oakland Athletics — 4.2 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,900 | FanDuel $10,200
Ho Hum, rookie Spencer Strider is coming off a 16-strikeout game against the Rockies logging eight shutout innings, while allowing just two baserunners on an economical 106 pitches. The youngster would be leading the league with his 13.7 strikeouts per nine innings if he had seen enough action to qualify for the leaderboard. For perspective, current leader Shohei Ohtani is at 12.0, with Carlos Rodon and Dylan Cease rounding out the top three with rates of 11.5 and 11.4, respectively.
Oakland has been a bottom-five offense this season by most standard and advanced metrics when facing right-handed pitchers. Only the lowly Tigers have plated fewer runners this year. Even if we include yesterday’s 10-9 loss to Atlanta, the Athletics have scored more than five runs only twice in their last 18 games. Advantage Strider.
Additional Opportunities
Jordan Montgomery has an early line of 4.5 strikeouts which seems like a very achievable target with the Stokastic projections forecasting only 5.4 whiffs for the veteran left-hander against the Nationals. This gives him a reasonable 64% likelihood of reaching the five punch-outs needed to surpass this milestone. Though Montgomery has had just four strikeouts in each of his last two appearances, he did have six or more in four of the five preceding outings. The projected Washington lineup has a 25.5% strikeout rate over the last two seasons against southpaws and in this same timeframe, Montgomery is at 22.9% himself.
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Other Pitching Options
- RHP Gerrit Cole vs. Minnesota Twins (Early)
- LHP Patrick Sandoval vs. Detroit Tigers (Early)
- RHP Luis Castillo vs. Chicago White Sox (Early)
- RHP Alek Manoah at Baltimore Orioles (Main)
- LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. Washington Nationals (Main)
Other Hitting Options
- Coors Field Extravaganza (Early)
- Austin Riley at LHP Ken Waldichuk (Early)
- Jesse Winker vs. Michael Kopech (Early)
- Paul Goldschmidt vs. RHP Cory Abbot (Main)
- Alex Bregman vs. LHP Cole Ragans (Main, Late)
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Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Midday rain in Baltimore should wind down leading into first pitch, based on the current forecast. Otherwise things look relatively risk free, though always give things a once over leading up to lock, just to make sure nothing unexpected pops up.
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