MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Leverage, HRs & Optimal Picks

The eight-game main slate (8.75 games on DraftKings) kicks off in the early afternoon and offers a few very high-end options when it comes to pitching. With several top-flight aces taking the hill for their clubs, offense could be at a premium, and the public is laser-focused on the teams in good matchups. This is going to be a challenging needle to thread, but there are a few appealing options left on the board. The home run picks below include all of the games on the FanDuel slate but is missing the double-header game between the Indians and White Sox. I will make an effort to circle back and add home runs for the late slate games later in the morning.

The main slate kicks off at 1:05 p.m. ET on both sites. The Awesemo team will be here for all of it, providing updates to tools and data throughout, including the Strategy Show, which you can find on YouTube. Speaking of tools, if you aren’t visiting the Top Stacks Tool regularly, you’re just making your MLB DFS picks incorrectly. The Top Starters Tool is every bit as important in deciding who takes the hill for your daily fantasy baseball lineup.

[UFC261]

MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

~~Arizona Diamondbacks: Kole Calhoun — 8.82~~

Baltimore Orioles: Ryan Mountcastle — 9.03

Cincinnati Reds: Nicholas Castellanos — 6.00

Cleveland Indians: Jose Ramirez — 4.18

Kansas City Royals: Salvador Perez — 13.17

Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar — 7.45

Milwaukee Brewers: Keston Hiura — 10.98

New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton — 17.09 (low price bonus: Clint Frazier — 9.07)

Philadelphia Phillies: Rhys Hoskins — 13.94

Pittsburgh Pirates: Gregory Polanco — 3.42

San Francisco Giants: Alex Dickerson — 3.44

St. Louis Cardinals: Paul DeJong — 6.71

Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Lowe — 12.03

Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 13.49

Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk — 8.27

Washington Nationals: Juan Soto — 24.01

[JOINMLB+]

MLB DFS Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays here. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

On the Hill

With high-end pitching talent on the mound for several teams on this slate, there are a few directions to turn, and gamers can play the pricing and leverage game to a degree. The Top Pitchers Tool is a spectacular resource for this purpose. It lays everything important out in a single dashboard and provides a top-down view of each pitcher’s probability of success and their projected public exposure.

The top aces on the board are fairly obvious names, with Shane Bieber, Aaron Nola and Gerrit Cole going for their respective teams. The trio ranks in that order for FanDuel, though slightly differently on the Awesemo Top Pitchers Tool. All three are outstanding, though not one is in an easy matchup.

Nola has a 25.0% strikeout rate and a 3.46 xFIP across his first 15 innings over three starts so far this year, last year the right-hander put up a 2.80 xFIP with a 1.08 WHIP and a 33.2% strikeout rate in his 71 innings. At just $8,500 on FanDuel and $8,800, he is a spectacular bargain. Cole has been absolutely elite, putting up a monster 41.4% strikeout rate in his 18 innings this year, with a 2.35 xFIP and a 0.82 WHIP. He put up a 32.6% strikeout rate in his 73 innings last year and was at 39.9% the year before in a 212-inning sample. Cole is pricey on both sites but well worth the spend. He will be owned by the public, however, and the matchup against the Rays in Yankee Stadium is a tricky one. Still, this is one of the absolute apex aces in the league. Cole’s excellence is perhaps only eclipsed by Bieber, who has a 41.7% strikeout rate in his 21 innings this year after putting up a 41.1% mark in 77 innings last year. Bieber has a microscopic 0.89 WHIP and a 2.34 xFIP, marks very similar to the 2.04 xFIP and 0.87 WHIP he posted last season. Any of the three is a fantastic choice, though all the attention appears to be going toward Cole and Bieber, making Nola the preferred option to find some leverage and savings.

Freddy Peralta is in an interesting spot, taking on a Pirates team that is relatively good at limiting strikeouts, but not much else on the offensive side. Peralta’s teammate Brett Anderson just largely shut this team down last night, and Peralta is a significantly more talented pitcher at this point in their careers, though that is comparing a righty to a lefty. Peralta has been a strikeout machine over his 13 innings this year, posting a ludicrous 47.1% strikeout rate that makes him stand out. He was excellent in a tiny sample last season as well, putting up a 37.6% rate in his 29 innings, with a 3.23 xFIP and 1.16 WHIP. Over 85 innings in 2019, Peralta had a 30.1% strikeout rate and a 4.18 xFIP but a bumpy 1.46 WHIP. He stands a chance to put up a very strong game at a similar price to Nola and should be rostered often as well.

Latest MLB DFS Content

(Quick note: if it says 1-5, it means hitters 1-2-3-4-5. Otherwise, I will specify spots)

ARI — 2-7 — Pick ‘Em.

The Diamondbacks are not a team frequently featured in this space. Their original opponent on the mound was ace Stephen Strasburg, who has since scratched and been put on the IL with shoulder inflammation. Taking his place is 34-year-old never-was righty Paolo Espino. The pitcher has toiled in the minor leagues since 2009, with numerous seasons at AAA for several organizations — primarily these Nationals — but he has just 30 innings of major league experience. In those 30 major league innings, Espino has managed to yield a whopping eight home runs, which helps to explain the long minor league career. Espino is a middling strikeout pitcher in the minors, and his time on the mound in this game is likely to be short. The Diamondbacks bats suddenly have significant upside, and the public may not catch up in time.

Josh Rojas is now leading off for the Diamondbacks since Kole Calhoun is not in the lineup. Rojas has not done much to start the year and has a limited major league track record, putting up a lowly .187/.284/.243 slash in his 264 plate appearances so far.

Lefty Pavin Smith is hitting second for just $2,200 on FanDuel and $3,000 on DraftKings, and he is projecting for essentially no ownership. Smith is a well-regarded prospect who had 44 plate appearances last season and put up a .270/.341/.405 slash, though he hit just one home run and had a .135 ISO in the tiny sample. Smith is at .242/.286/.394 with one home run in his 35 plate appearances this year and makes a strong leadoff option for a stack.

Asdrubal Cabrera offers position flexibility and upside on his $3,000 salary on FanDuel, but he is at a higher $4,100 price tag on DraftKings. Cabrera is a known commodity, hitting from both sides of the plate in a productive career. Last season he hit eight home runs in his 213 plate appearances, putting up a .205 ISO but creating runs 5% worse than league average. In 514 plate appearances in 2019, Cabrera hit 18 home runs and had a strong year at the plate. Hitting third, he is a no-brainer inclusion in a most stacks here.

Lefty outfielder David Peralta went .300/.339/.433 in his 218 plate appearances last season but hit just five home runs and had a .133 ISO while still creating runs at a pace 7% better than average. Peralta flashes occasional power, but he is good at getting on base and has solid gap pop to drive in runs. He is not an ultra-high upside play, but he fits into stacks very well and could be productive at the plate in a great matchup.

Catcher Carson Kelly is hitting fifth, making him one of the more appealing options where catchers are required. Kelly has upside in his bat, though he was at just .221/.264/.385 in his 129 plate appearances last season. This year Kelly has a .407/.528/.704 triple slash and has hit two home runs in his 36 plate appearances.

Slugger Eduardo Escobar is not someone to pick in life-or-death situations, but he has some pop in his bat. Escobar hit 35 home runs in his 699 plate appearances in 2019. He costs $3,500 on FanDuel and just $3,900 on DraftKings and hits from both sides of the plate, protecting him against bullpen matchups after this team chases Espino early. If the public is not getting to him, it makes sense to include Escobar in considerations here.

Nick Ahmed has minor upside as a mix-in shortstop option from the seven spot in this lineup, while Nick Heath does not offer much in terms of reliable proven major league history. In his 18 plate appearances last season, he had a .154/.313/.231 slash. Either player works for differentiation, but Ahmed is the more polished. He hit five home runs in 217 plate appearances last year but 19 in 625 the year prior, adding eight stolen bases and some MLB DFS utility.

HR Call: Ryan Zimmerman — Washington Nationals

Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Looking for more daily fantasy baseball and MLB DFS picks content? We have loads of MLB DFS picks articles, data, DraftKings & FanDuel cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo MLB home page. Just click HERE.

Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.