A juicy 15-game slate of MLB DFS action is lined up for Tuesday night, with the entire league on the table for lineup picks. The slate is very short on primetime pitching options. This one has all the appearances of being about getting to the correct bats on the way in. With results coming out the other end heavily favoring pitching through much of the season so far, there are sure to be some surprises in the standings. Following the projections and the site’s tools and content is the best approach to getting to where the public isn’t, landing ahead of the curve on just a few of those MLB DFS stacks today could be the key to MLB DFS success on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.
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MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options
Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.
Home Run Ratings
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Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Eduardo Escobar — 19.87
Atlanta Braves: Freddie Freeman — 11.48
Baltimore Orioles: D.J. Stewart — 5.97
Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez — 25.20
Chicago Cubs: Joc Pederson — 7.20
Chicago White Sox: Tim Anderson — 8.77
Cincinnati Reds: Aristides Aquino — 10.10
Cleveland Indians: Bobby Bradley — 11.06
Colorado Rockies: Trevor Story — 5.60
Detroit Tigers: Eric Haase — 9.34
Houston Astros: Yuli Gurriel — 5.61
Kansas City Royals: Jorge Soler — 11.30
Los Angeles Angels: Jared Walsh — 11.95
Los Angeles Dodgers: Cody Bellinger — 10.02
Miami Marlins: Jesus Aguilar — 12.55
Milwaukee Brewers: Daniel Vogelbach — 6.32
Minnesota Twins: Miguel Sano — 5.65
New York Mets: Dominic Smith — 10.05
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge — 10.28
Oakland Athletics: Mark Canha — 8.77
Philadelphia Phillies: Bryce Harper — 8.50
Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 7.61
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 8.18
San Francisco Giants: Mike Yastrzemski — 9.21
Seattle Mariners: Tom Murphy — 5.58
St. Louis Cardinals: Tyler O’Neill — 6.83
Tampa Bay Rays: Randy Arozarena — 3.44
Texas Rangers: Willie Calhoun — 20.11
Toronto Blue Jays: Randal Grichuk — 9.83
Washington Nationals: Ryan Zimmerman — 5.87
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Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The Tuesday pitching slate bears some interesting resemblance to yesterday’s messy opening position, calling it a worse offering would not be a position to which anyone could offer much objection. On a day where Mike Minor tops a list of 30 pitching options, it is clear where things stand. Most of the quality arms in this one are in difficult spots. In addition to the Royals’ lefty, MLB DFS gamers can look to Trevor Rogers, Julio Urias, Eduardo Rodriguez and Andrew Heaney, though not one of them is in an easy spot. Luis Castillo has had a dumpster fire of a season to this point, but he draws the strikeout-prone Brewers, while Taijuan Walker has pitched very well in spots but faces the tough Cubs. The slate’s primary ace on name recognition and performance is, of course, Yu Darvish, but he comes with his own set of challenges pitching in Coors Field on a 90-degree night.
Darvish will be facing a Rockies active roster that is league-worst in run creation against right-handed pitching, coming in with a collective WRC+ of 67, meaning they achieve at a rate 33.0% worse than average in the split. The team has just a .136 ISO against righties and a lowly 2.53% home run rate, and they strike out around the league average at 24.4%. This is a pushover of a matchup for Darvish, in any other ballpark in the league he would be spiking major upside and would be the clear-cut leader on this slate. At Coors Field, on a day like today, he ranks highly but not at the top of the board. Taking on some risk in rostering a pitcher at Coors can have its reward, as the Austin Gomber faithful can attest from just yesterday. Darvish is a far more talented pitcher than Gomber and he will be facing a far worse lineup. He has a 29.9% strikeout rate and a 6.2% walk rate on the season with a 3.86 xFIP and a 0.91 WHIP. He is inducing 12.3% swinging strikes and has a strong 31.4% CSW% through 79.0 innings in 13 starts. Embracing the ballpark risk for a starter like Darvish at his price and popularity for MLB DFS today makes a lot of sense, there is clear upside.
Rogers is on his way to becoming a premium lefty arm in the Show. He has an excellent 29.8% strikeout rate over his first 75.2 innings in 13 starts this season, following a 28.0 inning seven-start cup of coffee in last year’s ridiculous season. Rogers has a 3.34 xFIP and a 1.06 WHIP while inducing 15.0% swinging strikes at the major league level this season. He will be facing a challenge in the form of the Cardinals offense, St. Louis ranks ninth-best in baseball with a 22.1% strikeout rate against southpaws while connecting for a .191 team ISO in the split. The Cardinals have a 3.81% home run rate against lefties that is just league-average, but there are several righties with thunderous power that can ruin a starter’s day rather quickly. For the pay-up, Rogers is an interesting play on both sites, particularly as he is drawing virtually no ownership.
Minor will be one of the most popular options on both sites. He has been cruising to a 26.6% strikeout rate and a 4.06 xFIP with a 1.15 WHIP through the first 74.0 innings over 13 starts. Minor is inducing 11.2% swinging strikes though he has just a 28.3% CSW that puts him around the average. He is facing a Tigers lineup that is second worst in baseball with a 29.1% strikeout rate against lefties. Detroit has just a 2.67% home run rate and a .133 ISO in the split, this is a good spot for Minor. The primary question with the starter as relates to today’s slate is whether he is worth carrying the heavy burden of popularity. There is not a prohibitive price tag on the board, pivoting from Minor would simply avoid the field rather than gaining ground in salary for having done so. On the two-pitcher site in particular, it most likely makes sense to embrace the chalk and run with Minor at or around the field’s exposure, though getting him over 20.0% on the blue site with 29 other options available begins to become unwieldy.
Among a collection of pitchers for whom popular descriptions include “has been” or even “never was,” Castillo presents an odd case. He was a near-elite option for much of the past two seasons, dialing up a 30.5% strikeout rate last season after reaching 28.9% in 2019. This year that has cratered to just 20.4% and his swinging strike rate has plummeted from 15.4% to 11.4%, knocking his CSW% from 29.4% to 26.5% this season. Castillo has largely avoided premium contact. He sits in the 74th percentile of average exit velocity against, the 66th percentile in hard hit rate and the 80th percentile in barrel rate. He is still inducing chases as well, sitting 80th percentile in chase rate for the season, but he is simply not finishing hitters. When contact is made, batters have been somewhat lucky, with a .335 BABIP so far, but that mark was .329 last year when Castillo was excellent. The Reds have struggled with stranding runners, Castillo’s rate has dropped from 70.0% last year to a mere 55.2% this season, bad luck has been a factor for the starter to at least some degree. He is facing a Brewers squad that strikes out 26.1% of the time in the split, fifth worst in baseball. They have just a .150 team ISO and a 3.41% home run rate against right-handed pitching, both marks slightly below the middle of the league, while they create runs 16.0% worse than average. This could be a solid get-right spot for Castillo after he has shown positive signs in recent outings.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”06/15/2021″ team=”reds”]
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox are on the road to face Atlanta lefty Tucker Davidson in what could turn into a true slugfest of a game. Boston is one of the leading teams in the power index above and they rank among the top three options as a stack on both sites when measured by probability of success in the Top Stacks Tool. Despite the strong indicators, the team is currently projected to be under-owned, creating a plus leverage situation that sharp MLB DFS gamers can look to exploit. Davidson has thrown 17.2 innings in three starts this season, striking out a mere 20.0% of hitters and walking 10.0% with a 4.23 xFIP and a 0.96 WHIP. He is not a hard thrower, with just a 93-mph average exit velocity on his fastball, a four-seamer that is carrying a .564 expected slugging percentage against. He pairs that with a basic slider, curveball and changeup combination that has yet to fool hitters at the big league level. Boston’s active roster has just a 2.84% home runs rate against left-handed pitching this season and they have created runs 6.0% worse than average in the split, coming in with just a .151 team ISO, but a 21.8% strikeout rate. The Red Sox should be putting the ball in play with frequency tonight, between the sequential hitting and dormant power upside in the split, there is reason to believe in rostering this stack.
Enrique Hernandez starts off the Red Sox lineup at low cost and no ownership from site to site. He has carved out a role in the Boston offense and is seeing the regular opportunities he wanted in leaving Los Angeles. So far he has responded with a .225/.281/.375 slash and five home runs in his 217 plate appearances, stealing a base and creating runs 22.0% worse than average in the process. As a Yankees fan, if this is what the Red Sox are looking for from a leadoff hitter, I am all for it. For MLB DFS purposes, Hernandez is simply a cog in the machine. He is a viable piece of Red Sox stacks for the batting order position ahead of the ready for primetime players who follow.
Alex Verdugo costs just $2,900 on FanDuel and $4,000 on DraftKings and is slashing .288/.348/.459 for the season with eight home runs and four stolen bases. He has created runs 18.0% better than average this year and he will be almost completely untouched on both sites. Verdugo is a .282/.320/.392 hitter with a .110 ISO against lefties for his short career so far, though that is in only 292 plate appearances. He has seen power somewhat limited but is not lacking in quality or upside in the split overall. If it creates an ownership gap, it makes sense to roster Verdugo where others skip him, assuming he hits second in the confirmed lineup.
J.D. Martinez owns one of the highest individual home run marks on the slate today. He costs just $4,700 on DraftKings and $4,000 on FanDuel but is pulling in well under 10.0% projected ownership across sites. Martinez has hit 13 home runs in his 263 plate appearances this season, putting up a .309/.373/.542 slash a .233 ISO along the way. He is creating runs 46.0% better than average for the season, doing much of the heavy lifting for the incredibly productive heart of the Boston lineup. Martinez belongs in the middle of all things Red Sox stacks tonight.
Xander Bogaerts is not far behind his star teammate in terms of production. He has blasted 12 home runs this season, in just 259 plate appearances, while slashing .320/.382/.550. His .229 ISO and 51.0% better than average run creation to this point in the season show inarguable quality. Bogaerts is simply one of the top shortstops for offensive production in all of baseball. He hits cleanup for this team most nights lately and makes for an excellent, but pricey, piece of stacks on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The field is well behind on the play, making Bogaerts an appealing pay-up at the position as a one-off as well.
Lefty slugger Rafael Devers was done a disservice by a leading website who recently published a “Top 25 MLB Players Under 25” piece that had him ranked seventh – and behind Ke’Bryan Hayes who has done precisely nothing in the league yet. Devers belongs in the No. 5 spot on that list, behind only Ronald Acuna Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr. and Juan Soto (the first?), in any order. Devers is an extra base hit machine whose 89 doubles since the start of 2019 ranks best in the American League and second to Nicholas Castellanos in all of baseball. He led the league in the category in 2019 while putting up a titanic .311/.361/.555 season with 32 home runs and a .244 ISO. This year he has hit 15 home runs and has a .276 ISO while creating runs 35.0% better than average. He is easily one of baseball’s very best hitters and he is yet to peak. For tonight’s MLB DFS slate he is an excellent option at even $5,500 on DraftKings. For only $3,400 on FanDuel he is a no-brainer, even in a lefty-lefty matchup, particularly given the lefty he will be facing.
Christian Vazquez delivers quality when he is under-owned as a catcher-required play on DraftKings, but he is trending toward nearly 10.0% ownership, making him one of the more popular options on the team tonight. This is not a stay-away number by any means, but it is worth noting and remembering when building Red Sox lineups. Vazquez has hit three home runs in 214 plate appearances this season, delivering a stepped-on .095 ISO and creating runs 23.0% worse than average in the split, the upside has largely been absent, but it exists.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”mlb” date=”06/15/2021″ team=”red sox”]
Second baseman Christian Arroyo costs very little and he will be unpopular. He is also perhaps the lowest upside play in this lineup. Arroyo has a .259/.323/.414 slash with three home runs and one stolen base to start the year, dialing up a .155 ISO and creating runs two percent better than average so far. As a position filler, or for salary offset reasons, Arroyo remains in play — he is simply not a go-to option. Given the choice between Arroyo and Hernandez at second base, the leadoff hitter is the clear better choice, though Arroyo can deflect even the minor 5.0% ownership projected for Hernandez, coming in at just 0.5%.
Slugging corner man Bobby Dalbec rounds out the lineup with his powerful bat. Dalbec has been all-or-nothing this season, slashing .194/.249/.400 with a .206 ISO and eight home runs in his 193 plate appearances. He needs to develop a more reliable contact profile, but he drives the ball with ferocity when he does manage to touch it. Dalbec is in the 75th percentile in average exit velocity and the 96th percentile in barrel rate. For the flat minimum on DraftKings, Dalbec is drawing some popularity on this slate, which is not the case for just $2,300 on FanDuel. He plays far better on the blue site, when he is the only Red Sox player over 10.0% projected ownership on DraftKings is where things get concerning. Dalbec deserves ownership and has severe home run upside on tonight’s slate, but he is an easy point from which to pivot if things get too popular.
HR Call: JD Martinez — Boston Red Sox
To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting picks for today.
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