MLB Picks: Expert Monkey Knife Fight MLB Picks Tonight

Welcome to the Saturday edition of Awesemo’s top Monkey Knife Fight MLB fantasy picks. We’ve got seven evening games on the docket for tonight, and lots of money to be made with the help of MLB Projections and tools. We’ll start off with a few arms who have strikeout props to take advantage of and finish with some bats in Cleveland that could make some noise tonight. Let’s get to the picks, and don’t forget to use promo code “AWESEMO” if making your first deposit to get up to a $100 instant bonus to your account.

Tonight’s Top Monkey Knife Fight MLB Player Prop Picks

More or Less — Joe Musgrove LESS Than 6.5 Strikeouts, German Marquez LESS Than 5.5 Strikeouts

MLB DFS Fantasy Baseball Picks Expert Rankings today Monkey Knife Fight Padres Rockies Strikeouts how to bet on MLB today vegas odds betting lines over/under prop bets Joe Musgrove

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In the Padres and Rockies nightcap game at 10:10 pm ET, we’ve got two arms in Joe Musgrove and German Marquez who have both shown crazy strikeout upside in previous years. But for Musgrove at least, his ability to miss bats has disappeared in the aftermath of the sticky substance ban for pitchers. He hasn’t exceeded five strikeouts in his past four outings, which shows he might be one of the starters most affected by the new regulation going forward. While the Rockies are certainly an easy opponent to avoid damage with due to their league-low 71 wRC+ against righties this season, they only strikeout at a 23% clip to righties on the season. That makes the under a strong play, especially when looking at Awesemo’s MLB Player Props tool, which slates Musgrove with 15% chance to come in with less than 6.5 strikeouts in this spot.

As for Marquez, he’s been far less affected than Musgrove, but gets the substantially harder matchup in the Padres. Considering they only strikeout at a 21.9% clip against righties for the season and Marquez only sports a 24.2% strikeout rate himself, 5.5 punch outs feels like a bit of a stretch. That makes shorting this combination of arms a solid strategy to implement on Monkey Knife Fight tonight.

Latest MLB DFS Content

Home Run Derby: Franmil Reyes, José Ramirez, Salvador Perez MORE Than 0.5 Home Runs (2x)

Expert MLB DFS Fantasy Baseball rankings picks projections over/under prop bets Franmil Reyes Jose Ramirez Salvador Perez Indians Royals best bets how to bet on MLB today vegas betting odds lines predictions home runs

In addition to helping you make informed decisions in strikeout prop market, the MLB Player Props tool also help you target the most likely long ball candidates on the board. Using the expected win percentage tab, Awesemo’s projections go to work and help target the correct hitters to round out your home run derby plays. For today, all three of Franmil Reyes, José Ramirez, and Salvador Perez are predicted with a better than 20% chance of going yard, making them a prime combination of plays to put together.

Both the Royals’ Mike Minor and the Indians’ Cal Quantrill wouldn’t seem like the ideal starting pitchers to target power against, as both allow just shy of 37% hard-hit rates on the season. But allow pretty lofty launch angles on the season (16.4 degrees for Minor, 11.7 degrees for Quantrill) and have expected slugging percentages north of .450, indicating more long balls could be in the forecast for each going forward. Hitting conditions are decent at 75 degrees with 50% humidity, so there should be no issue targeting pop at Progressive Field tonight.

As far as the hitters go, the Indians duo of Reyes and Ramirez carry 53.6% and 46.8% hard-hit rates, respectively, with launch angles over 10 degrees to boot. And as if that wasn’t impressive enough, Perez profiles slightly better than both with a 56.6% hard-hit rate and 15-degree launch. Combined that with his 93 mile per hour average exit velocity off the bat, and he’s phenomenal home run candidate to combine with the lethal 1-2 Cleveland combo.

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Author

Eric Lindquist

Eric Lindquist hails from Sioux Falls, South Dakota (yes, that’s the one with Mount Rushmore). A steady diet of three SportsCenters a day at an early age led to his obsession with sports, one that 30 years later is paying dividends for him as a successful DFS player and sports bettor. Despite over half a million dollars in net career earnings, he’s most passionate about helping others achieve their financial goals, an energy you can witness on the daily in his current role as a host and analyst at Stokastic. He’s a former Division I golfer at Iowa State, wishes he was a former Minnesota sports fan, and is a proud father to a 100-pound Bernese Mountain dog named Duke that wishes he could just eat people food instead of the crap he and his wife feed him on the daily.