Via Wednesday night’s single-car qualifying session, the field is set for tonight’s Duels. Let’s jump into the top NASCAR DFS picks for these abbreviated races around the Daytona Superspeedway.
[DAYTONA]
NASCAR DFS Picks: Daytona BlueGreen Vacation Duels
What are the Duels?
Before we jump into the top DFS picks for these races, let’s lay some groundwork in light of a qualifying session already having occurred last night. If you’re unfamiliar with NASCAR, it isn’t hyperbolic to say that the Daytona 500 is NASCAR’s Super Bowl. This is the weekend that matters the most to the sport. The grandeur of Daytona and the week leading up to the 500 (aka Speed Weeks) is such that NASCAR holds single-car qualifying to establish the running order for the real ticket into the Daytona 500 – the BlueGreen Vacation Duels.
Following qualifying last night, the field is split up by their times and put into two separate races that will set the real running order for Sunday’s race. For 38 cars, their spots in the Daytona 500 are guaranteed. The Duels tonight will merely establish where they start. However, for the rest of the non-chartered teams, there will be two spots up for grabs. All these non-guaranteed teams have to do is finish higher than one another.
Lineup Construction
Most people have a general idea of what NASCAR DFS lineups should look like at a superspeedway. However, if you blindly assume that what’s good for Sunday will work tonight, you are in fact paying the rake.
As I constructed the Race Sheets for the Duel races I kept seeing a trend. There really isn’t a ton of movement, not like your usual “plate race”. More or less, drivers who started in the top 10 are just swapping positions while drivers in the rear really didn’t move up that much. Yes, you can find a few drivers who started 15th or worse and raced into a top-five finish. However, on average, since 2017 no driver who started 10th or worse is picking up more than five spots.
What gives you ask? Drivers understand the real purpose of these races and it sure isn’t for the sake of racing. Where a driver starts in a superspeedway race is largely irrelevant. if your spot is guaranteed and where that spot is has no bearing on how you’ll perform on Sunday, why even come close to pushing the envelope? Yeah, the teams with no charter may have to get racy to ensure they qualify for Sunday. However, most of them are running on a shoe-string budget. Wrecking out would set their teams back in a major financial way. Not to mention the time they have to invest in setting up a back-up car.
the majority of fantasy production is going to come via finishing position tonight. The more drivers in our NASCAR DFS lineups who finish top five the better. I’m treating place differential like I’m treating bonus points from laps led and fastest laps. If they happen, so be it, but for the majority of drivers, I’m not pursuing it. I want top-five or top-10finishes out the bulk of my drivers. If I do choose a driver starting 12th or worse, he better get place differential. For the most part, my “sweet spot” will be drivers starting fourth through 11th.
DraftKings versus FanDuel
One final NASCAR DFS note and you may have already discovered this discrepancy. DraftKings treats the two races as two separate slates. Meanwhile, FanDuel lumps every driver together combing the two races as a single slate. For the sake of clarity, I’m going to list plays according to their Duel race.
Duel 1
After posting a blazing fast single-lap qualifying time, Alex Bowman will lead the first Duel to the green flag. In fact, Bowman’s average speed was a full mile-per-hour faster than teammate William Byron. It’s Bowman’s fourth straight year he will sit on the front-row at the Daytona 500. All of this info is meaningless to us though. Bowman has the pole-position locked up regardless of what takes place tonight.
I expect to see an effort from him that mirrors past pole-sitters. A night in which we see him lead the most laps but fall back towards the end and finish around 10th. In a similar position last year, Bowman started on the pole, led 12 laps, and finished way back in 15. There really is no incentive for him to get close to pushing the envelope this evening.
The theme of Duel One appears to be the gaggle of Fords all grouped together. In fact, we have drivers in a Ford Mustang starting ninth through 14th. My expectation is the drivers of the like manufacturer will stick together in these Duels. With the Fords already altogether, they could become a potent group later in the race.
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Denny Hamlin, 7th (+550, $14,000 FanDuel, $9800 DraftKings)
Hamlin comes into the first Duel as the betting favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. Furthermore, Hamlin sits at +165 for a top-three finish. With his recent history at Daytona, much less Talladega as well, it makes sense that he should be the favorite. Although Hamlin doesn’t offer us that much place differential, he does give us fair confidence in a top-five finish. In Hamlin’s last five Duel races, he has four top-six finishes.
Joey Logano, 11th (+650, $13,000 FanDuel, $10,100 DraftKings)
The driver of the No. 22 comes into the first Duel as the second heaviest favorite. This after winning his Duel in 2020. While Logano’s Daytona 500 results have been lacking at best, what we’re concerned with is where he’s been starting as a result of his Duel finish. Over the past five seasons, his Duel finishes have been top five in four of the past five years. Combine this fact with him having the glut of Fords around him, not to mention teammate Austin Cindric and quasi-teammate Matt DiBenedetto, and I really like Logano’s chances to win this evening.
Austin Cindric, 10th (+2000, $7,500 FanDuel, $6,500 DraftKings)
Speaking of Cindric, we need to discuss why I believe he’s the cheap driver you should be eyeing in the first Duel. To begin with, despite Cindric not being a full-time driver and this being his first-ever Cup start, his odds to win mirror Erik Jones and Tyler Reddick. Second, we did some promise from Cindric in his Xfinity Series starts at superspeedways. Although his average finish, over the past 10 superspeedway races, sits at 18.8 he was tied with Brandon Jones for the most top-five finishes (four).
However, what he really has going on for him is are his teammates. As I mentioned with Logano, he has Penske’s power around him. The objective is obviously clear, get Cindric into the big dance by finishing higher than the rest of the non-chartered teams. The best way to ensure this happens is for Cindric to keep in toe with Logano as he makes his charge to the front.
Duel 2
Later in the evening, William Byron will lead the second Duel to green with Bubba Wallace alongside him. I’m treating Byron just like I’m treating Bowman – hands-off. Byron’s spot alongside Bowman is solidified and the only thing that could screw it up is if Byron wrecks and needs to go to a backup. Despite starting second, DraftKings Sportsbook only gives Wallace the seventh-best odds (+1000) to win. While I believe that his odds should be higher, his fantasy upside is capped because of his starting position.
Kevin Harvick, 3rd (+700, $12,000 FanDuel, $8,900 DraftKings)
Harvick is tied with three fellow drivers at +700 for the second-best odds to win the second Duel. While playing a driver who comes off the grid third has inherent risk, Harvick has shown the desire to push the envelope in this Duel races before. Over the last five years, he has finished top five in each of his respective Duels. Over the past two years, Harvick led the most laps in each of his Duel races. Running strong and grabbing an actual top-10 starting spot in the Daytona 500 has mattered to Harvick. I see no reason why he doesn’t chase that again this evening.
Ryan Blaney, 9th (+700, $13,300 FanDuel, $10,000 DraftKings)
One of those drivers tied near the top of the betting market with Harvick is perhaps the slam dunk, chalk play of the slate. Blaney is in a similar position to teammate Joey Logano from the first Duel. Blaney offers place differential, winning upside, and has a teammate (Brad Keselowski) to make a charge with. While I feel that Blaney has relative safety, it is worth noting that since winning the 2018 Duel One, his Duel finishes went sixth and 14th last year. Plus, in a 22-driver field, Blaney’s ownership may be so high that he merits fading.
Noah Gragson, 22nd (+5000, $2,000 FanDuel, $5,500 DraftKings)
Generally, my advice in these Duels is to avoid these backmarkers as best as you can. Their upside is limited at best. Plus, we saw a mechanical issue keep this car from even attempting a qualifying effort on Wednesday evening.
However, we have a few things piquing my interest in Gragson. First, despite failing to qualify and starting dead last, Gragson’s odds to win are higher than six fellow drivers. Heck, it’s higher than Kaz Grala (+6000) who we saw qualify and barely miss locking himself into the Daytona 500. Not that we expect Gragson to win this Duel, it is definitely worth our attention that DraftKings favors Gragson over Grala.
Second, we know the motivation to finish high is there. Gragson knows he has to beat Grala as well as Garrett Smithley in order to qualify for the Daytona 500. In order to accomplish this, he’s going to pick up place differential in the process. Starting dead last means he may pick up the most place differential of all drivers tonight should he do so.
Now yes, seeing him fail to make a qualifying run is disconcerting. However, Beard Motorsports isn’t some one-off, brand-new team with no experience. They should get their issue fixed in time for tonight’s race. Yet I will be keeping tabs on this situation. If concern about the No. 62 continues to bubble from the garage, then I’ll fade Gragson. Sadly, there isn’t a good pivot on DraftKings from Gragson. if Gragson’s prospects look less viable throughout the day, it may mean some lineup reconfiguring.
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