NBA DFS Picks: Value & Stud for 10/4 DraftKings + FanDuel

The NBA Finals are underway, and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings and FanDuel. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around for the Sunday, October 4 NBA Finals Game 3 slate.

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NBA DFS Picks: Value + Stud for NBA Finals Game 3 | Oct. 4

NBA DFS Value Pick: Kelly Olynyk

DraftKings $3,200, FanDuel $8,000

Once again, Olynyk is my value play of choice, just as he was for Game 2. From a pricing standpoint, this is an odd situation. With Bam Adebayo out on Friday, Olynyk played 37 minutes and scored 38.75 DraftKings points. Despite that performance, he remains cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The winning lineup on DraftKings last game actually had Olynyk in the Captain spot and his minutes are here to stay since Adebayo is doubtful to play tonight.

Meyers Leonard will likely start at center, but don’t fret. He started at center last game and Olynyk still played the bulk of the minutes off the bench. There is a massive gap in the offense to fill without Bam and Olynyk is picking up the slack. Despite the expected ownership on Olynyk, he is too good of a value to pass up.

NBA DFS Stud Pick: Anthony Davis

DraftKings $12,200, FanDuel $15,000

It doesn’t feel like there is much of a doubt in the outcome of this series. The only question left is if Davis or LeBron James will win MVP. To this point, I think AD is playing better and deserves the nod.

We also have to consider that without Adebayo, the Heat don’t have anybody to matchup against Davis. Olynyk is fine on offense, but his defense isn’t enough to compete with Davis. Adebayo is the key to Miami’s defense, as we saw when he blocked Jayson Tatum to win a pivotal game over the Celtics last series. The Heat allow 2.0 more points per 100 possessions this season when Adebayo is off the court. Davis feasted and scored 32 points on 75% shooting last game to go along with 14 rebounds.

NBA DFS Contrarian Pick: Duncan Robinson

DraftKings $5,200, FanDuel $9,000

It is no secret that the Heat are fighting an uphill battle at this point. Sportsbooks give them almost no chance to come back and win the series. The Lakers were already heavy favorites, and now with Adebayo and Goran Dragic expected to sit again, Los Angeles is favored by 9.5 points.

This is where I think Robinson can play a role with some upside as a contrarian play. If the Heat want to stand a chance, they have to increase the variance in these final games. The best way to do this is with volume three-point shooting. One of the best shooters in the league, Robinson shot 44.6% from deep this season and could help bring some more variance for the Heat to get back into the series. On DraftKings, Robinson is $1,400 cheaper than he was for Game 1.

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.