NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks Today DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Basketball

Monday’s wild NBA DFS sprint sees eight games all tipping off between 7 and 8 pm ET. The slate already has major value on the board, and the day’s top play is quite clear, but reasonable pricing across the industry is leading to an interesting decision between true stars and scrubs or more evenly built constructions tonight. The slate features a range of players priced from the $6-8,000 range who come up frequently optimal on both sites at a variety of positions, and with seemingly everyone carrying multi-position eligibility there are a ludicrous number of premium combinations. Getting to the right blend of optimal lineup appearances, upside, and leverage is critical on a slate such as this one. The mad dash for the top of the standings should be a fun ride on for both FanDuel and DraftKings NBA DFS lineups tonight.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With eight games on the slate, this article will focus on several of the top plays with positive leverage on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.

NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Andre Drummond: DraftKings — $3,700 — C | FanDuel — $4,400 — C

Philadelphia center Andre Drummond is the best play on both sites tonight, and don’t let anyone say otherwise. The backup big man costs a pittance across the industry as he steps into major minutes in the absence of starting superstar center Joel Embiid. Drummond is a sleeping giant who plays just 18.2 minutes a night under normal circumstances, but he puts up a star-caliber 1.31 fantasy points per minute in that limited time, needing just 17.2% of the team’s usage to get there. Drummond has an excellent 14.3% assist rate and a top-shelf 23.2% rebounding percentage; he is an excellent option for fantasy point production. Drummond is projected for 28 minutes and is the leading probability play on every site in the NBA DFS industry. He is carrying an absurd likelihood of hitting his required fantasy point ceiling.

The backup big man is basically a bonus square on the DraftKings slate tonight for just $3,700. With his hefty playing time projection and the low price, Drummond has an incredible boom score probability of 87.43%, one of the highest marks of the season in the category. Drummond is the most likely play in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated slates by a ridiculous margin. His 70.6% rate of landing in the top lineup more than triples the 21% of teammates Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey, the second- and third-most frequently optimal players at any position. Drummond is projected for 87.2% ownership on an eight-game slate, but he is a virtual lock in this situation, particularly with the utility position available on the site, negating the need to worry about opportunity cost at the center position. The 76ers center is projected for a 38.1-point median DraftKings score but he has clear upside for more, making it easy to ignore his -16.6 leverage score. Drummond should be in the vast majority of DraftKings NBA DFS lineups tonight.

The FanDuel slate sees Drummond slip to just a 65.4% ownership mark and a 55% optimal lineup appearance rate. With the site’s singular center stipulation, there is a bit more of a limitation on the slightly more expensive Drummond, who costs $4,400 on the blue site. The rate at which he lands in the optimal lineup is still easily slate-leading, outpacing Maxey, Harris, and several other players featured here. He is the clear-cut best play on the FanDuel slate by roughly 20 percentage points as well. While there is not a utility spot on this site, the fact that eight of the top-10 most expensive center-eligible players on the slate also have power forward eligibility is helpful. Most of the frequently optimal center plays come from that list, rotating them through the power forward position with Drummond at the center spot is the best configuration for FanDuel lineups tonight, but that approach to the slate does demand the sacrifice of Jusuf Nurkic, who is 9.2% optimal and negatively leveraged, and Clint Capela, who is 5.1% optimal but at a 5.0 leverage score in early projections. Drummond’s 38.38-point median projection and his ridiculous 80.31% boom score percentage on the site demand attention despite their -10.4 leverage score.

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Jaylen Brown: DraftKings — $8,800 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $8,400 — SF/SG

One of the top players from the upper-mid-range of salary on both sites, Jaylen Brown comes in with positive leverage marks across the industry tonight. The Celtics wing has a solid 1.11 fantasy points per minute rate on 56.7% true shooting and a 15.6% assist percentage this season, adding some quality with a 9.1% rebounding rate as well. Brown is the 1A to Jayson Tatum‘s 1, but with the field leaving shares on the table he makes for a strong play in this situation. Brown is the most frequently optimal player who has positive leverage and is also not currently listed as questionable, which is the case with Jimmy Butler on the other side of the same game (Update: Immediately after this was written, Butler was ruled out). Brown comes in with probability marks that compare favorably with Butler’s and his overall ownership will likely be lower if the Heat star ends up playing tonight. Adding shares of a positively leveraged Brown seems like a good play that may get better as the afternoon rolls toward the start of the slate.

The FanDuel board has Brown ranked 14th overall with a 17.9% optimal lineup appearance rate in Awesemo’s simulations for the blue site’s slate. That rate sits just four percentage points behind fifth-ranked Tobias Harris on the slate, however, putting Brown firmly in the mix for additional roster shares tonight. Brown has eligibility at both shooting guard and small forward for just $8,400 on the site. He stands out for a 5.5 leverage score, joining Butler and C.J. McCollum (1.4) as the only positive marks in the top-15 by optimal lineup rate on the site tonight. Brown is projected for a 37.81-point median FanDuel score and he has a 14.13% boom score probability, leaving room for the expectation of a ceiling score for tournament lineups. Brown is projected for just 12.4% popularity on the slate, leading to his excellent leverage mark, with the field trailing well behind the play he can be rostered with confidence, and he should be included in a rotation of frequently optimal mid-range plays.

Brown costs more against the lower salary cap on DraftKings, where he is an $8,800 option at either shooting guard or small forward. The excellent flexibility helps him continue to remain relevant on the slate, however, Brown comes in with a 12.8% optimal lineup rate that ranks 12th best in Awesemo’s simulated slates, once again joining Butler and McCollum (0.7) as the only positively leveraged players in the top-15 by optimal lineup rate at any position tonight. Brown is projected for a 40-point median DraftKings score and he has a solid 14.94% boom score probability, but the uncomfortable price is pushing the field back further than they should be on this slate. The public is projected for just 10.9% ownership, leading to a 1.9 leverage score for the play. Brown is one of the most frequently optimal high-upside players on the DraftKings slate.

C.J. McCollum: DraftKings — $7,600 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $7,800 — SG

Already mentioned above for his leverage score on both sites, McCollum is clearly an important piece of the puzzle at his discounted salary industrywide tonight. The guard has plenty of opportunity in front of him, with star Damian Lillard on the shelf for the foreseeable future, but he has not really moved off of the 1.01 fantasy points per minute rate at which he has produced throughout the season. McCollum was a 1.11 per-minute player last season on slightly more usage at 26.5% and he leads the team in usage with Lillard off the floor over the last two seasons. The guard is underpriced due to the general lack of production, but he has clear, “any given slate” upside based on his talents. As it stands, McCollum has produced a 54% true shooting percentage and a 20.6% assist percentage this year, and in the team’s most recent game he posted 40 FanDuel points in 36 minutes, the same total for which he is projected this evening.

On the FanDuel slate, McCollum drops in with an 18.9% optimal lineup appearance rate at only the shooting guard position. That mark slots him in 10th among all players and fifth among eligible shooting guards. McCollum is projected for a 35.9-minute night which is leading to a 37.7-point FanDuel median projection. The guard has a 20.32% boom score probability that ranks 15th overall on the slate. The Portland scorer is also one of the few positively leveraged options available on the FanDuel slate, as documented above. With the slate going pear-shaped after losing Butler since that section was written, McCollum’s value is likely to climb, particularly as several Heat value plays add to the ability to roster multiple expensive options on this slate. As things currently stand, McCollum is projected for just 17.5% ownership on the blue site, leaving him with a targetable 1.4 leverage score that should be rostered aggressively for his very fair price.

With added point guard eligibility and a reasonable $7,600 salary, McCollum looks like an even stronger play on the DraftKings slate tonight. He lands in the optimal lineup in 20.2% of Awesemo’s simulated slates, making him the fourth-most frequently optimal player at any position on the site. McCollum lands behind only the three 76ers players on DraftKings. He is a very strong play with positional flexibility and a relatively low salary. The guard is projected for a 38.7-point median DraftKings score and he has a strong 25.85% boom score probability, which both add to his appeal. McCollum has a 19.5% popularity projection that could slip, depending on what happens with the Heat players at the same positions. McCollum should remain an excellent play, and gamers may gain ground beyond his 0.7 leverage score. Getting to additional shares of the Portland guard in a variety of configurations between both guard spots is a strong approach to lineup building in DraftKings NBA DFS lineups tonight.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.