NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks Today DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Basketball

The Saturday NBA DFS slate is a big nine-game affair with reduced prize pools around the industry because of cross-scheduling with other sports. The attention and funds being drawn to football slates today should have an impact on the nature and number of entries in NBA slates around the industry, but there are still massive prizes to be won and plenty of excellent lineup construction options available. The board in Vegas is ripe with potential targets, including a 230-point total in the game between the Pelicans and Nets that should be loaded with options on both sides. With a few $3,000 tier plays on the board, there are plenty of approaches to a stars and scrubs lineup construction this evening. Focusing on the positively leveraged highly optimal players on the board is a strong foundation that should be followed by working in some of the lower owned high boom score probability plays remaining on the table.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With nine games on the slate, this article will focus on several of the top overall plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.

DraftKings & FanDuel NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Troy Brown Jr.: DraftKings — $3,000 — SF/PF | FanDuel –$4,300 — SG

One of the key pieces of value on the DraftKings slate is a virtual non-factor on the FanDuel board. Chicago’s Troy Brown Jr. is projected to be in the starting lineup with Zach LaVine laid up, and he is carrying a 28.2-minute projection. Brown has produced a 0.75 fantasy points per minute rate on just 12.5% usage this season, up from the 0.68 he put together on 14.1% last season. Brown has jumped to a 0.88 rate over the team’s three most recent games, advancing his minutes average from 15.1 to 22.7, playing 27 minutes the last time out and 25 two games ago. As a concerning note, Brown turned in just 4.7 FanDuel points in that 27-minute outing in the team’s last game.

On the FanDuel slate, Brown is barely breaking the surface of interesting. He is projected for just 19.3 fantasy points and he costs $4,300 at the shooting guard position, a price that completely changes the nature of the play from the minimum at which we find Brown on the other side of the industry. On the FanDuel slate, Brown is in the optimal lineup in just 5.7% of simulated slates. No one is including him in their lineup on the blue site, given the high-for-him cost. With just 0.6% of the field projected to own Brown on this site, he is technically at a nice positive leverage mark, with a 5.1 on the board, but his limited median projection, low optimal rate, and a boom score probability of just 6.3% lead us to the conclusion that he is best considered a limited mix-in option on this site tonight.

On the DraftKings slate, however, Brown lands as the fourth-most frequently optimal player at any position. He costs just $3,000, the minimum salary, and he can be rostered at either forward position, making him an entirely different piece on the DraftKings slate. Brown is carrying a 17.9% optimal lineup appearance rate near the top of the board, trailing only Julius Randle, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Will Barton. Brown will be efficiently owned at his rock-bottom price, the field is projected to afford him 18.7% of their attention tonight, leaving him technically negatively leveraged at -0.8, but the building block is far more about what else he helps access than any requirement for his personal production. Brown is projected for a 19.5-point median score and he is carrying a 28.4% boom score probability on the slate. Brown is a fundamental piece of lineup constructions on the DraftKings slate tonight, he is good chalk and even at technically negative leverage, the play seems like a sound approach to getting added talent at the top-end of a build.

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Julius Randle: DraftKings — $8,600 — PF | FanDuel — $8,200 — PF/C

One of the top overall options on both sites, Knicks big man and offensive focal point, Julius Randle looks like a prime option that the field is not rostering frequently enough on either site tonight. Randle has come down somewhat in salary to a point that is more in line with his current season 1.10 fantasy point per minute performance. That rate comes on 26.9% usage, Randle was a 1.21 per-minute player on 28.5% usage last season, there is more to give than what he has provided the Knicks so far this year. In a matchup against the Atlanta Hawks that will be a rematch of last year’s lopsided playoff series, Randle will have plenty of opportunities against a depleted opposing frontcourt. The Knicks big man is projected for a 36.9-minute night and he has a chance to deliver on fair mid-range pricing. Randle is still a productive multi-category contributor, he has a 50.9% true shooting percentage this year but that comes with a 23.8% assist share and 13.6% rebounding percentage. At positive leverage scores across the board, it makes sense to load up on Randle.

On the DraftKings slate, the Knicks power forward slots in at only that position and costs $8,600. That lands Randle at the very top of the optimal lineup appearance rate column, with a 19.6% mark in the category. Randle is projected for just 14.5% public ownership and he has a 44.4-point median projection on the site. The lack of flexibility and a price higher than the one at which he falls on FanDuel barely diminish the play, Randle has a 36% boom score probability on DraftKings, also a slate-leading mark at every position. The power forward has a 5.1 leverage score that is highly targetable, he can easily be rostered in twice the number of lineups than the rate at which the field is utilizing him on this slate. Randle outpaces the next-highest power forward option by nearly six percentage points in boom score probability and two in optimal lineup appearance rate, while providing the only positive leverage among the top-eight by optimal rate.

On the blue site, Randle comes in with a 22.7% optimal lineup rate, second-highest on the board at any position, and the top power forward or center play. Randle comes in at just $8,200 on this site, but he is barely drawing any additional attention, coming up with just an 18.9% public popularity projection. At that rate, Randle is carrying a 3.8 leverage score on the FanDuel slate, he stands a strong chance of hitting a slate-relevant upside score, he has a 28.5% boom score probability against the low salary and a 41.4-point median projection on the slate. Boston big man Al Horford, who also has eligibility at both power forward and center, is the only other big who compares favorably with Randle on the FanDuel slate tonight, and they can easily be rostered together. Randle comes at a higher price but far better ownership marks when compared directly with Horford. At center, the only concerns are seemingly around opportunity cost, with big targets like Nikola Jokic on the board. With the ability to roster Horford and Randle both at power forward, getting to the big-name centers remains easy.

Patty Mills: DraftKings — $4,700 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $4,900 — SG/PG

With ongoing absences in the Nets rotation, guard Patty Mills is expected to draw the start for Brooklyn once again tonight. The Nets will have Kevin Durant on the floor, redividing the top-shelf shares between himself and James Harden on this slate, and pushing more of the quality to the secondary and tertiary options who are expected to see significant run alongside the two superstars. Mills has produced a 0.69 fantasy points per minute rate across all situations this season, not the most exciting rate in the world, but one that is in line with his 0.70 from last year on similar usage. Mills has posted 0.73 per minute over his last pair of contests, he sat out the team’s most recent game and played only 22 the outing before that, but had seen 31, 39, and 32 minutes as a more important piece in three games prior to that stretch. In tonight’s configuration, with Mills in the starting lineup, he is expected to receive a healthier dose of time, currently, Mills is carrying a 34.8-minute projection.

On FanDuel, that projection has Mills at a 24.5-point median score and he lands at a 12.5% optimal lineup appearance rate. While that mark stands just 28th overall on the slate, Mills offers differentiation possibilities and positional flexibility between both guard spots. At his eligible positions, Mills stands 14th best by optimal rate, but he is one of only three positively leveraged options in that group and one of the others is currently questionable Lonzo Ball. With expensive Dejounte Murray as the only other leverage play in that space, and more than two Mills plays fitting inside the Murray salary, Mills is the decision for elbow room at just a 6.5% ownership projection. He has a solid 14.8% boom score probability on the board, the field is sleeping on the underwhelming play, on the right night Mills can deliver value at this price while helping reach unique lineup combinations.

On the DraftKings slate, the Nets guard fits into both backcourt positions and he ranks ninth-best overall with a 14.9% optimal lineup appearance rate, putting him firmly in play as a mid-range value piece. Mills is carrying a 26-point median projection and a 26% boom score probability but he comes in at less than 10% projected public popularity, making him an excellent target for added shares. With his relatively low cost and excellent probability metrics, the field is simply not including Mills in enough lineups, he has a 5.2 leverage score that is screaming to be played more frequently. Among the top-13 options on the DraftKings slate by optimal lineup appearance rate, Mills is the only player who has a positive leverage score.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.