NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks Today DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Basketball

The eyes of the sporting world must be squarely focused on Sunday afternoon’s pair of NBA games, with nothing else interesting coming to mind. The small prize pools across the industry reflect the general interest level in basketball today, but with two games and not all that much attention being paid, there could be opportunities for intrepid NBA DFS gamers to profit while others take the day off. The afternoon slates get started at 2 pm ET with a contest between the Hawks and Celtics that sees the hometown Boston squad favored by 7.5 in a game with a 220.5 total, while the second game tips at 3 pm and features the Timberwolves and Pacers in a game with a 7-point spread and a 236.5 total. With more implied scoring and a number of value options in the later game, there is significant upside in focusing lineup construction toward that contest, but the overall options are extremely thin with just two games on the board.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With two games on the slate, this article will focus on the top overall plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.

NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Jalen Smith: DraftKings $3,200 — PF/C | FanDuel $4,000 — PF/C

After a reasonably good 21-minute debut in his new team’s most recent outing, young Pacers big man Jalen Smith finds his way to nearly the top of the board on both sites and seems like a critical play for today’s action across the NBA DFS industry. Smith was traded from Phoenix to Indiana at the deadline, but he was a productive player in his limited role with the Suns. In his 13.4 minutes per game over 30 appearances, Smith posted a 1.04 fantasy points per minute rate on 19% usage. The big man has a 55.9% true shooting percentage with a 15.9% rebounding rate, but he is not a facilitator of the offense from the middle, Smith checks in with just a 2.2% assist rate. With a 21.6-minute projection, Smith would have to hustle to truly deliver value on a full slate, but with only two games on deck and a very limited list of value options, he becomes one of the top available plays who really only needs around his median projection based on what else he affords access to in lineup construction on both sites.

On the DraftKings slate, Smith comes in as a $3,200 option at either the power forward or center position. The cheap price has him in the optimal lineup in 42.5% of simulations of the extremely small slate, the fourth-most frequently optimal player on the entire site today. Smith has just a 22.1-point median projection but his 33.19% boom score probability leads all players at any position on the DraftKings board, further demonstrating the clear value in including him in lineups. The next highest boom score probability on the entire slate is carried by Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns, who costs more than three times the price. Towns and Smith can easily be rostered in the same lineup, the Timberwolves star center has a 50.8% optimal lineup as the top overall option on the entire slate. Smith is projected to be owned by 27.1% of the public, which is not overly high for just a two-game slate. The big man is under-owned at that rate, he has an excellent 15.4 leverage score that would be dramatic on a normal slate and is simply staggering with so few options from which to compile a lineup. Smith is a fantastic play in contests of all shapes and sizes at his DraftKings price and projected ownership, he should be rostered aggressively.

At a slightly higher price against a higher cap on FanDuel, Smith remains a fine option. His optimal lineup appearance rate climbs to 49.7% of the site, making him the second-most frequently optimal player at any position this afternoon. Smith costs $4,000 and can fit into either the power forward or center spot on this site as well. He has just a 21.8-point median projection on the blue site, and more of the public is getting to him in lineups. Smith has a 37.7% ownership projection on the FanDuel slate, but that rate of popularity would still leave him at a fantastic 15.8 leverage score. Outside of Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards, who is currently questionable to even take the floor today, Smith has the top leverage score on the site by a wide margin. He is carrying a 19.64% boom score probability that also ranks second-best on the FanDuel slate today. It seems that the public is simply behind the curve on the potential playing time and quality that Smith can provide. With a few key Pacers still missing, he should have ample opportunity for production of fantasy points, and he can be rostered with enthusiasm.

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Tyrese Haliburton: DraftKings $8,200 — PG/SG | FanDuel $9,000 — PG/SG

Another new Pacers addition checks in as a potentially strong play from the upper mid-range of salary. Young guard Tyrese Haliburton was somewhat surprisingly flipped to Indiana at the trading deadline and he immediately stepped into the starting lineup in place of ailing Malcolm Brogdon. Haliburton posted a 38.6-point FanDuel score in 40 minutes in his Pacers debut, he was prominently involved in the offense and he will likely be a key piece of the puzzle even when the currently questionable – but is seemingly unlikely to play – Brogdon returns. Haliburton is a capable NBA scorer, he averages 14.4 real points in 34.5 minutes per game on a 57.9% true shooting percentage and he is a strong offensive facilitator who has a 31.8% assist rate this year. The guard is projected to be a popular but valuable addition to NBA DFS lineups on both sites this afternoon.

On the FanDuel slate, Haliburton comes in with a 47.6% optimal lineup appearance rate, but the field is projected for an efficient 45.7% ownership share. Haliburton is a $9,000 option at either guard position on the site, making him a quality target among a list of forwards and centers atop the board by optimal lineup rate. The young Pacers guard is projected for a 40.68-point median score and his salary has him at a 14.43% boom score probability that it’s eighth overall on the short slate. With no other point guard ranked higher by boom score potential, Haliburton makes for a strong upside option on the limited slate. The 1.9 leverage score is appealing, the public is not getting to the quality guard option quite frequently enough for his probability metrics. While he is not a standout leverage play, the fact that he lands on the positive side at all on a two-game slate has an appeal of its own. Haliburton should be rostered at or above the field’s rate on the FanDuel slate this afternoon.

Haliburton comes in at an inexpensive $8,200 salary on the DraftKings slate. The guard retains his multi-position eligibility at a low price, making him a highly valuable piece on the DraftKings board. Haliburton has a 47.7% optimal lineup appearance rate that ranks him second overall on the slate, one spot behind Towns and immediately ahead of fellow combo-guard D’Angelo Russell, who slots in with a 45.8% rate. Haliburton costs $1,100 more than Russell on the slate and they project similarly. The Pacers guard has a 42.1-point median projection and a 22.29% boom score probability at his salary, while Russell has a 37.2-point projection and a 22.48% boom score mark. Rostering either or both of the guards would not be a mistake on the DraftKings slate, but they will both be popular. Haliburton is projected for a 44.3% ownership rate, leaving him with the stronger boom score probability at 3.4, compared to Russell’s 1.9 against 43.9% popularity. Haliburton is the better option between the two, where there is salary cap space to spend on him.

Kevin Huerter: DraftKings $4,900 — SG/SF | FanDuel $5,500 — SG/SF

Looking for a play in the other game leads immediately to some of the lower-owned options on the board, the field’s attention is firmly on the game with the higher total. One of the options that checks in at an efficient salary for his reasonably strong projections from the lower-cost range is Hawks wing Kevin Huerter, who is not a frequent visitor to this space. The two-game slate allows the opportunity to stretch out to players who are rostered less often, Huerter comes in as just a 0.73 fantasy points per minute performer across all situations this season, and he has been at 0.80 in the team’s three most recent games. With a 29.1-minute average and a 33.1-minute projection, there is a little room for upside on Huerter’s typical production, and he has the talent to get hot and bend a slate with his scoring on the right night. Huerter has a 56.6% true shooting percentage but just a 5.4% rebounding rate with his 13.3% assist share. While he is not one of the apex scoring options on the slate, the public is not rostering Huerter with nearly enough frequency for his potential upside or probability metrics on this small slate.

Huerter is a $4,900 option whose eligibility at shooting guard and small forward enable him to be utilized in five different spots in a DraftKings lineup. The flexibility and low cost have Huerter landing in the optimal lineup in 21% of simulated slates, ranking him slightly ahead of Boston’s Derrick White, who costs more on both sites. Huerter is carrying a 24.2-point median projection on the DraftKings slate, he is not one of the top options by raw scoring potential and he has just a 10.06% boom score probability, but the value, flexibility, and optimal lineup rate are extremely appealing. The final point that should lead to Huerter landing in additional lineup shares is his 4.5 leverage score against a very low 16.5% public ownership projection on the microscopic slate. No player that lands in the optimal lineup better than one in five times should be owned at such a low mark, particularly when he is this cheap and easy to fit into lineups in virtually any position. Huerter is getting no respect from the NBA DFS community on this slate, the lack of public enthusiasm can be exploited for upside.

The situation is similar on the blue site, where Huerter is a $5,500 option at shooting guard and small forward. The Hawks’ wing checks in with a 31.5% optimal lineup appearance rate on the slate, making him the 15th-most frequently optimal player at any position. His higher salary has the boom score probability suppressed even further than it was across town, Huerter is mostly here for his median projection and maybe a few additional fantasy points today, but there is only a 5.52% probability that he breaks through to a true ceiling score. That level of production may not be necessary on this slate, however, the sheer value in Huerter’s median score has him frequently optimal, and the public is leaving him on the table too frequently. Huerter has a 23.7% public ownership projection which leaves him at a fantastic 7.8 leverage score. The idea that a player projected for more than 33 minutes on the slate is at that strong a leverage mark comes close to defying belief, there is a strong chance that Huerter could make a difference in NBA DFS tournaments today.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.