NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

The daily fantasy basketball game rolls on Tuesday night, with a solid and fun-looking seven-game slate. The NBA DFS gods were nice to grant us an extra half hour before this evening’s lock, which hopefully will afford us the time to parse through the afternoon’s breaking news and important details. With seven games, we’ll be focused on a few of the top optimal-lineup plays on the board before dipping into the lower-owned end of things for one or two plays. We are always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — Oklahoma City Thunder

DraftKings — $8,800 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $8,000 — SG

The Thunder have been one of the more frequently featured teams in this space through the NBA season to date. Typically the play swings on whether star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is taking the court or not. Earlier in the season, with Gilgeous-Alexander out, the Thunder were a tremendous go-to value option. When active, he averages 1.18 fantasy points per minute and becomes the focal point for both the Thunder and for daily fantasy basketball purposes. Tonight he will not only be in his usual featured role, but he will have to do a bit more, with Luguentz Dort and Darius Bazley both unlikely to play with injuries, Al Horford resting and Hamidou Diallo traded to the Pistons. Dort’s absence in the team’s last game thrust Justin Jackson into the starting lineup, while Gilgeous-Alexander saw an uptick from his season-long 27.9% usage rate to a 32.1% mark.

On FanDuel Gilgeous-Alexander tops the board at all positions with his giant 43.8% optimal-lineup rate. He will be very popular, which makes sense given the likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. Gilgeous-Alexander carries a 42.2% boom-score probability into tonight’s action and will be in a projected 45.0% of public lineups. While this does land him with a negative leverage score of -1.2, that is not a number to fear on a play this strong. Pushing well beyond the public on Gilgeous-Alexander exposures is the correct move on the blue site.

On DraftKings Gilgeous-Alexander shares will be a popular commodity as well. He lands in more than 25% of public lineups but comes up as an optimal play in 23.8% of simulations for the site, meaning he is owned basically correctly by the field. His boom-score probability is significantly lower across sites, however, as he has a significantly increased salary against a lower cap. With the reduced upside and less-frequent appearances in the optimal lineup in simulations, Gilgeous-Alexander remains firmly in play, but he is slightly less mandatory on DraftKings.

Moses Brown — Oklahoma City Thunder

DraftKings — $3,500 — C | FanDuel — $4,200 — C

The Thunder will have several value plays in the showcase this evening as well given the expected absences. With Al Horford taking the night off for maintenance, we should see a significant share of minutes for Brown. In this situation over the weekend, Brown saw 24 minutes to Mike Muscala‘s 12, receiving a 14.8% usage share. He turned that time and opportunity into 13 points, 4 rebounds, an assist and 2 stocks, though he did foul out in the game’s closing minutes. Brown starting and was getting closing run to that point in the game should be our focus for daily fantasy basketball purposes. We can expect similar tonight.

On DraftKings Brown tops the slate with his 47.3% optimal-lineup rate. Slotting in for $500 above the minimum as a center-only option, Brown provides significant utility on the site, allowing us to access most of the key players and most likely optimal construction paths. He will be exceedingly popular but justifies the love with his extreme 54.9% boom-score probability. Getting to a player who is projected for 57.4% ownership and -10.10 leverage is a point at which we can at least consider other options, but Brown comes up in the optimal lineup with such frequency compared to others at his position that we would be setting our first foot on a path that is likely to be suboptimal.

On FanDuel, the singular-center site, we have less use for Brown, but he remains in play. He has a salary $700 higher on the blue site but still comes up in the optimal lineup in 21.4% of Awesemo’s simulations. He has a significant 50.8% boom-score probability on FanDuel, which keeps him relevant among center options despite the -7.1 leverage score. His 28.5% popularity is somewhat daunting when we only get one bite at the center apple, but Brown is the most frequently optimal play at the position.

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Thaddeus Young — Chicago Bulls

DraftKings — $6,100 — PF/C / FanDuel — $6,800 — PF

On the other side of the contest from the Thunder, the Bulls will provide some star-caliber upside (see: Zach LaVine) as well as some value from the mid-range. Young has been up and down the fantasy board throughout the season while providing reliable, if unspectacular, production. When he is at the right price for his position, Young can deliver value. Tonight’s slate appears to be one of those opportunities for him. Young averaged 22.6 minutes per game over the team’s most recent 10-game stretch but should see more in the starting unit given the odd decisions in Chicago’s rotation. In his usual run, Young put up 10.0 points on 22.7% usage while also contributing a 31.3% rebounding rate and a 31.3% assist rate. Young can produce for daily fantasy basketball lineups in different ways, which is critical for a limited real-life point scorer.

For the salary on FanDuel, Young slots in as an also-ran option at the power forward spot. He is priced up to $6,800 on the blue site and ranks just sixth at the position with his 12.9% optimal-lineup rate. Young has a reasonable 26.3% boom-score probability, and his 5.4 leverage score keeps him interesting, potentially putting him in play above similarly ranked options despite a slightly lower optimal lineup mark. Young will only be in 7.5% of public lineups, a number that is easy to double if necessary.

On DraftKings Young is the sixth-ranked player at any position in optimal-lineup rate, hauling in a 23.6% mark. He has a positive leverage score across sites, with a 3.8 mark on DraftKings, and he retains a high-end boom score with the lower salary. For the money, Young comes up with a 23.7% boom-score probability that ranks him sixth overall and third among power forward and center options. His flexibility across both positions adds utility to the upside, making him a strong consideration where we are getting him against public ownership that is too low.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”03/15/2021″ team=”pistons”]

Ben Simmons — Philadelphia 76ers

DraftKings — $9,000 — PG/SF / FanDuel — $8,200 — PG

After the unfortunate injury to Joel Embiid in the team’s last game, Simmons will be required to take on a significant share of the load until his star teammate returns in a few weeks. While this thrusts obvious names like Tony Bradley and Dwight Howard into prominence in everyone’s thoughts, it is Simmons who springs to the top of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, at least on one site. Simmons has a 20.3% usage share across all situations this season. That mark jumps to 23.7% without Embiid on the floor, while his per-minute fantasy production goes from 1.20 to 1.26.

On DraftKings Simmons is a mix-and-match option at either point guard or small forward, which extends his utility. The ability to roster a player of this caliber at so many positions in a lineup renders him as a piece of the optimal in 12.6% of simulations, which is not among slate leaders but is also not insignificant. Simmons lines up with just a 9.8% boom-score probability, which is more about his salary than the matchup with the Knicks’ solid defense and plodding pace, though that is certainly a factor given the low Vegas line. Simmons is slightly over-owned by the field, but it would not be a mistake to land around the public’s exposure mark.

On FanDuel Simmons costs just $8,200, which is a broken price given the opportunity and upside. Simmons lands in the optimal lineup in 30.3% of simulations, making him a core component of lineups tonight. He will be popular and appropriately owned by the public, coming up with a -2.0 leverage score. His 29.4% boom-score probability is second among point guards, which makes him appealing despite the popularity. It would be advisable to exceed the field’s ownership on Simmons on FanDuel tonight, though three of the top four options at the position — including Simmons — are star-caliber players with heavy salaries. Creating a forced rotation of those plays seems like a strong approach.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.