NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineups

It seems that Paul George entered a contest to become daily fantasy basketball players’ most loathed athlete of the season. After his late scratch the other night, George delivered a clunker of a performance into a great many NBA DFS lineups last night, tanking a solid half the field and most of our entries. Monday brings us back to the grind with a solid eight-game slate that has numerous areas of interest. With eight games, we’ll be focused on a few of the top optimal-lineup plays on the board before dipping into the lower-owned end of things for one or two plays. We are always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations.

As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimized-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimized-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Immanuel Quickley — New York Knicks

DraftKings — $5,600 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $4,600 — SG

The ailing Knicks point guard spot has some time before it’s Lonzo Ball time if the trade rumors are to be believed. For now the Knicks will be without usual mediocre starter Elfrid Payton but should get Quickley back from some lingering soreness. Assuming he plays, Quickley should have an opportunity to run the offense and be the primary facilitator, though that is not his exact skillset. He functions better as a scoring option, playing off the ball or creating his own shot. The Knicks will supplement his efforts through the excellent passing ability of Julius Randle and augment the ball handling duties with several options.

Quickley is averaging 1.04 fantasy points per minute this season, making him one of the league’s top rookies. On FanDuel he lands in the optimal lineup in 37.7% of simulations for this evening’s contests and carries a tremendous 52.8% boom-score probability. Quickley is simply too affordable on FanDuel tonight; we can choose to ignore the 45.0% public ownership mark unless we get significant news about a minutes or role limitation. Quickley has a -7.3 leverage score but is in such a good spot against the defenseless Nets that it makes sense to blow right through the public ownership mark.

On DraftKings Quickley adds point guard eligibility and looks like a fantastic option to move around the board. Despite costing $1,000 more against a lower salary cap, Quickley still comes up in the optimal lineup in 24.7% of simulations. He carries a lower but still quality boom-score probability of 27.9% on the site; he will be popular but not to the point that we cannot roster him. Quickley has a -6.4 leverage score, but we should look to exceed his 31.1% public ownership projection.

Caris LeVert — Indiana Pacers

DraftKings — $7,000 — SG/SF | FanDuel — $4,100 — SG

Speaking of mispriced shooting guards on the blue site, Caris LeVert returned to NBA action over the weekend and was promptly disrespected by FanDuel’s pricing department. LeVert played 26.9 minutes and scored 13 real-life points on a team-leading 29.9% usage. He added a 29.2% rebounding share and 18.2% assist rate to the tally, putting up a solid game in a return that was a major question mark on the board. FanDuel responded by raising his salary, but only to $4,100. DraftKings has LeVert appropriately priced, and he is nothing more than an afterthought or an infrequent click on that slate.

On FanDuel LeVert is the top option on the board by optimal-lineup rate. Assuming he sees the lion’s share of the team’s usage again, he will have an opportunity to destroy that price point, easily reaching a ceiling game. LeVert appears in the optimal lineup in 47.3% of simulations for the FanDuel slate and has a ridiculous 66.4% boom-score probability for his meager salary requirement. LeVert will be justifiably popular, but his leverage score is just a -1.5, meaning we can roster him well beyond the field even when the field is at nearly 50%.

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Derrick White — San Antonio Spurs

DraftKings — $5,200 — PG/SG / FanDuel — $5,300 — PG

The Spurs wrecked rotation is going to be without DeMar DeRozan once again and LaMarcus Aldridge in perpetuity. The latter is on the trade block and considered not with the team, while DeRozan is still away attending to his family. Beyond their top two veteran stars, however, the Spurs are in the process of getting whole. Derrick White has been back in the rotation for the team’s most recent three games after another extended absence. In that return he has averaged 13.3 real-life points on 23.8% usage in his 25.9 minutes per game. White has added a 21.2% assist share to pad his fantasy scoring, and for the price on both sites, he will not have a ton of work to do to exceed his value marks and head toward a daily fantasy basketball ceiling score.

On DraftKings White is the second-ranked play of the day, slotting in with a 19.2% optimal-lineup rate for his low salary and ability to flex between both guard spots. White and his 0.99 DraftKings points per minute have a 21.3% boom-score probability on the evening and will be popular, but once again, it makes sense to crack the public’s popularity mark of 22.1% and not sweat the -2.9 leverage score the player is currently carrying. White offers both utility and upside, and he is a great play on the DraftKings slate.

On FanDuel White looks significantly less appealing when we can only roster him at point guard, a position where we simply have better options. He comes up in the optimal lineup in just 12.1% of FanDuel simulations and will be slightly over-owned with a -1.3 leverage score. White does carry a 27.3% boom-score probability at his salary, but the lack of positional flexibility saps his utility on the blue site. Getting to him as a mix-and-match option is fine, but it would be inadvisable to push much beyond the public ownership mark on this one. Undercutting that number seems like a sharper play.

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”03/15/2021″ team=”pistons”]

Rodney McGruder — Detroit Pistons

DraftKings — $3,400 — SG/ FanDuel — $3,500 — SG

Desperately seeking value on the DraftKings board lands us on McGruder, who has surprising-for-him metrics on the site tonight for his $3,400 salary. McGruder is projected for a 25.1-minute night for the Pistons given the team’s sudden lack of guard depth. Taking on the depleted Spurs in what should be an utter mess of a basketball game should afford the Pistons the opportunity to get away with running out dregs like McGruder for another night. McGruder averages 0.87 fantasy points per minute, putting up 5.9 real-life points in his 10.9 minutes per game. This play is all about the minutes and the price.

On FanDuel McGruder barely registers as an option despite slotting in at the minimum price. He appears in the optimal lineup in just 6.0% of simulations and has a 16.3% boom-score probability. He will be owned around the right amount by the public, stripping him of even leverage-based appeal. He is simply not a consideration outside of a few mix-and-match value spots given the better plays at the position on FanDuel.

On DraftKings McGruder ranks eighth overall on the slate by optimal-lineup rate with a 16.5% mark. He will be owned by a significant portion of the public, coming up in 25.4% of lineups and creating a -8.9 leverage score on a player that is highly questionable for production. He has a 14.8% boom-score probability that does not inspire the most confidence. There are simply no better options at remotely similar salaries, so McGruder has a tremendous amount of utility on tonight’s slate. He allows us to access the best of the optimal-lineup construction paths at various positions around him, but his upside is severely capped. This could be a key decision point on the DraftKings daily fantasy basketball slate tonight.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.