NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Ownership Projections

For Thursday night, we get a six-game slate to attack, and below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.

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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades | March 18

Center: Montrezl Harrell

DraftKings Grades: B, Values: B

FanDuel Grades: B, Values: A

The Lakers have made a clear effort to get Harrell more involved since the All-Star break. In their first three back from the layoff, with Marc Gasol (health-and-safety protocol) still away from the team, Harrell has collected 38.9 DraftKings points per game. No matter if the contest is competitive or not, Harrell has received 28.8 minutes per game and a 25.1% usage rate off the bench. This translates to 1.36 DraftKings points per minute, and Gasol has already been ruled out for Thursday night.

Harrell should stay in the 25- to 30-minute range against a Charlotte defense that has given up the sixth-most rebounds and seventh-most points in the paint per game since the All-Star break. As a final bonus, the Lakers will be at home in the Staples Center, where Harrell has contributed 2.6 more DraftKings points per game this season. His prices on both DraftKings and FanDuel have yet to fully adjust to his recent production, and Harrell isn’t expected to gain much attention in GPPs tonight.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 8.7%, FanDuel 4.3%

[MARCHMADNESS]

Small Forward: Joe Ingles

DraftKings Grades: B, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: A

For injury management purposes, Mike Conley will sit out tonight’s matchup against the Wizards. With one less ballhandler, the Jazz will use a tighter rotation and Ingles has been the replacement starter for Conley this season. In the seven contests the veteran has missed, Ingles has provided 31.6 DraftKings points in 30.9 minutes per game.

In addition to the expanded role also comes one of the best matchups in basketball against the Wizards. Washington ranks 1^st in pace, 27^th in defensive efficiency and they are playing their second game in two nights. This defense has given up 118 points per game when on the back end of a back-to-back this season, and the Jazz present the largest implied team of the slate at 124 points. Ingles has topped 30 DraftKings points in four of the seven tilts without Conley this season and is a lock to reach this feat again tonight.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 25.3%, FanDuel 35.2%

Point Guard: Lonzo Ball

DraftKings Grades: B, Values: C

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: C

Ball was a gamechanger in GPPs against the Trail Blazers on Tuesday night, and I will be going right back to the point guard this evening in the same exact matchup. Including a career-high 17 assists, Ball’s 46.25 DraftKings points in the first leg of this miniseries was his second straight effort of over 40 DraftKings points, and he was only owned by 7.2% of the field in DraftKings’ main GPP on Tuesday. Specifically for that site, Ball hasn’t cracked double-digit ownership in seven consecutive starts, and his ownership is expected to stay relatively in check tonight based on Awesemo’s projections.

This rematch’s total is a slate-high 239.5 points, and its 1-point spread is the smallest of the night. Ball saw 35.2 minutes Tuesday, and there is no reason to suggest he will see any less tonight, going against a Blazers defense that is giving up the seventh-most DraftKings points per game to opposing point guards. Ball is scoring 38.1 DraftKings points per game in totals north of 230 points this season. At reasonable salaries on both sites, he will be one of my core plays for this six-game slate.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 14.0%, FanDuel 17.9%

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Small Forward: Alec Burks

DraftKings Grades: C, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: A

The Knicks have been without Derrick Rose (health-and-safety protocol), Austin Rivers (personal) and Elfrid Payton (hamstring) in back-to-back games, and now Immanuel Quickley (ankle) will also be out. This leaves them extremely short-handed in their backcourt, and even though he most likely won’t start, Burks is going to play big minutes and obtain large rates tonight. Even with Quickley available in their last game, Burks ranked third on the team in playing time, with a season-high 35.7 minutes off the bench against the 76ers. Albeit in a small sample, Burks has posted a 27.1% usage rate and recorded 1.2 DraftKings points per minute when Rose, Quickley, Rivers and Payton have been off the floor, and Tom Thibodeau should push Burks above 30 minutes tonight against the Magic.

He is producing 26.8 DraftKings points per game when given a minimum of 25 minutes this year. While this game’s total is the lowest on the slate (206.5 points), Burks is a value play that we can confidently use tonight.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 23.5%, FanDuel 10.9%

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