NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Ownership Projections

Tuesday night has a seven-game slate, and below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.

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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades | March 16

Center: Moses Brown

DraftKings Grades: C, Values: A

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: A

Instead of starting Isaiah Roby at center with Al Horford out of the lineup Sunday, Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault opted to start Brown this time around. In the first start of his career, Brown recorded 23 DraftKings points in the come from behind win against the Grizzlies. He finished with 24 minutes, but this number would have been higher if Brown didn’t struggle with foul trouble throughout the contest. He eventually fouled out in the fourth quarter. If Brown can avoid severe foul trouble tonight, it’s possible that Brown approaches the 30 minute mark with Horford (rest) and Darius Bazley (shoulder) inactive again.

Standing 7-foot-2, Brown supplies a strong 1.24 DraftKings points per minute this season, and Tuesday night presents a beautiful matchup against a soft Bulls interior defense. No team in the NBA allows more DraftKings points per game to opposing centers than Chicago. Brown is an outstanding punt play tonight, particularly on DraftKings where we can roster multiple centers and he is priced at a near minimum $3,500.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 57.4%, FanDuel 28.5%

[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”03/16/2021″ team=”Rockets”]

Power Forward: Kenyon Martin Jr.

DraftKings Grades: C, Values: C

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: A

Martin has been an excellent source of value ever since P.J. Tucker decided he wanted to move on from Houston. With Tucker out for the past three games and Christian Wood (doubtful) still rehabbing his ankle injury, Martin has led the Houston frontcourt with 30.6 minutes per game. He has made the most of this opportunity, scoring 30.6 DraftKings points per game, and Tuesday night may be his final chance to prove to this Rockets’ coaching staffing that he deserves a sizable role in this rotation when Wood is healthy.

Houston will be right back in action tomorrow night against the Warriors, and while nothing is official, it is sounding like Wood may make his anticipated return. Obviously Martin knows what’s at stake tonight, and he should be highly motivated against the Hawks, who rank 21st in defensive efficiency this season. At only $3,500 and with small forward eligibility, Martin is a must-play on FanDuel tonight. As for DraftKings, his salary has adjusted to a fair $5,300, but I still think Martin will produce value at this number. The rapid increase to his price tag is also expected to really depress his ownership in GPPs.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 8.3%, FanDuel 37.3%

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Power Forward: Julius Randle

DraftKings Grades: A, Values: D

FanDuel Grades: A, Values: C

Randle’s incredible season continued last night, with 63.5 DraftKings points against the Nets. For the third time since the start of the month, the Knicks were without Elfrid Payton (hamstring), Derrick Rose (health-and-safety protocols), Austin Rivers (personal) and Mitchell Robinson (hand). In these three contests, Randle has been an absolute beast, amassing 56.25 DraftKings points per game thanks to a 30.8% usage rate and a 35.9% assist percentage. Compared to his averages for the season, this is a 2.7-point upgrade to his usage and a massive 10.2-point leap for his assist rate.

All of these players are expected to remain out tonight, and Randle should be under-owned against the 76ers. Facing the second-ranked defense by efficiency is never ideal, but they will be without Joel Embiid (knee), who is one of the best defensive players in the league. Naturally, Philadelphia’s defense should be more susceptible inside, and Randle is still a triple-double threat in this spot. Given the lack of attractive expensive options tonight, attacking a red-hot Randle at low ownerships is an appealing GPP strategy.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 6.0%, FanDuel 15.3%

Point Guard: Lonzo Ball

DraftKings Grades: B, Values: C

FanDuel Grades: C, Values: C

In Sunday’s impressive 20-point beatdown on the Clippers, Ball led the Pelicans with 40.5 DraftKings points in only 30 minutes of work. He received a team-high 19.8 minutes in the first half, and had that game been close, Ball would have been in the 35- to 40-minute range. Tonight’s matchup against the Blazers brings a slate-high game total of 238 points and a 2-point spread, which is the tightest line on this seven-game card. We should see a heavy dose of Ball against a Portland defense that ranks second-to-last in defensive efficiency. If we look at the 13 games he has started in a total above 230 points this season, Ball is contributing 37.5 DraftKings points per game.

Having exposure to this high scoring affair is essential tonight and with low projected ownerships for both DraftKings and FanDuel, Ball is my favorite target from the shootout.

Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 9.4%, FanDuel 9.9%

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