The NBA DFS Deep Dive is our primary in-depth daily fantasy basketball article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for any format.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | 1/9/21
Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets (+5): 228
Atlanta Hawks
The narrative around the Hawks is changing quickly. After a hot start to the season, the team has now lost three games in a row. This is also coming with some controversy, since John Collins is reportedly unhappy with some of the decision making by teammate Trae Young at the end of games. The good news is that this is a nice spot to get right. The Hornets are one of the weaker teams in the league, and they are playing on the tail end of a back-to-back.
I don’t put too much weight into the narratives. John Collins is not playing his best basketball to start the season, but it’s led to a depressed price on FanDuel. He’s one of my favorite power options at $6,800. It is good to see the playing time start to trend up for Collins. He’s played over 30 minutes in each of the last three games after playing under 30 minutes in most games to open the season.
Overall, my favorite play from the Hawks is Clint Capela. In my initial builds, he’s my most rostered center in both FanDuel and DraftKings NBA contests. Despite scoring over 30 DraftKings points in four straight games, Capela is yet to see a significant bump in salary. He was generally priced around $8,000 during his time with the Rockets last year and his per-minute rates resemble his numbers from Houston. Playing time is no longer a concern for Capela, he opened the season on a minutes restriction so he’s due for a bump in salary of about $1,000 or so.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young, Clint Capela
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young, Clint Capela, John Collins
Charlotte Hornets
It is only a matter of time until LaMelo Ball is starting for the Hornets. The third overall pick in the draft, Ball is now the overwhelming betting favorite to win Rookie of the Year. He moved to a minus money favorite after nearly becoming the youngest player to ever post a triple-double last night. Ball came an assist shy of hitting that mark for the first time in his career. The only concern I have with him is playing time. He looks like the best guard on Charlotte, but he is still coming off the bench and played just 26 minutes despite his strong showing last night. This makes him more of a GPP play than a cash play.
Per dollar, there aren’t any other options that stand out from the Hornets. Due to positional scarcity, I have exposure to Gordon Hayward on FanDuel. It is a position without many players to like on the site, and Hayward is the second most expensive small forward. He’s opened the season taking on a much bigger role for Charlotte than he had in Boston, with a 24.9% usage rate. It looks like we could see Hayward’s production mirror his pre-injury days in Utah, when Hayward was an All-Star and the primary option in the offense. Hayward averaged 35.49 FanDuel points in his final season with the Jazz.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LeMelo Ball
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward
Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers (-3): 215
Phoenix Suns
The Suns are an easy team for my to write about because I am not rostering their players much to start the season. The issue here is the combination of Devin Booker and Chris Paul. While it’s a great duo for real life and Phoenix looks like a contender in the Western Conference, production is down for both of the guards. Paul and Booker are both ball dominant players so pairing them in a backcourt is causing a dip in production for both. Until there is a price dip or one of them misses a game, I am not rostering either with decreased usage compared to last season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: NoneÂ
Indiana Pacers
T.J. Warren missing time for the Pacers opens up extra usage, but enough games have passed without him in the lineup that salaries have adjusted. This takes guys like Malcolm Brogdon and Victor Oladipo out of play for me. Neither makes for a good value with the inflated price tags. Myles Turner is playing well and on pace to break blocks records, although his salary is also inflated at the moment.
The one player that I have some exposure to in initial builds from the Pacers is Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis has upped his assist rating from last year while maintaining the same usage rating. He’s likely heading towards another All-Star game where he won’t produce any highlights. Sabonis is one of the best players in the league who will never wind up on a top plays of the day reel on Sports Center. He is taking another step forward this season and is one of the best fantasy producing big men in the league.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis
Miami Heat at Washington Wizards (+7): 230.5
Miami Heat
The Heat have one of the best matchups on the slate. The Wizards are playing on the tail end of a back-to-back and are terrible on defense even with proper rest. Washington ranks bottom-five in defensive efficiency while playing at the fastest pace in the league. All of this leads to Jimmy Butler as a chalk play on the slate. He is chalk that I am eating. I want exposure to Miami going up against Washington, and there are no viable cheap plays. Butler is a bit underprice at $7,400 on DraftKings, and he is easy to fit into lineups with his PG/SF eligibility. In FanDuel NBA contests, Butler is one of the only small forwards that projects well, so I consider him a must roster in cash games.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jimmy Butler
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jimmy ButlerÂ
Washington Wizards
Russell Westbrook is yet to play in a back-to-back situation this season. While the Wizards have not ruled him out, I am assuming he is not playing as of now. Before the season, coach Scott Brooks said that the plan was to hold Russ out of consecutive games all season. Maybe this will change since Washington is off to a slow start, but it’s a situation we should have more info on as we get closer to lock.
Assuming Westbrook is out, Raul Neto should start at point guard. He started in the two games Russ was out this season with overall solid results. One of those games was a blowout, but in the competitive game, Neto played 32 minutes and scored 40.5 DraftKings points. As long as he starts, Neto is the top value play on the slate.
From a usage standpoint, Bradley Beal is the obvious gainer without Westbrook playing. Shockingly, he’s actually seeing more shots this year playing alongside Westbrook than he got last year. Beal has a 36.8% usage rate, which I expect to come down going forward, but this isn’t a concern if Westbrook sits. Beal is a strong high end option as the league’s leading scorer.
As a lower owned play that I think is underpriced, Davis Bertans is starting to trend upward. He opened the season playing limited minutes and is starting to get over 30 minutes with regularity. Bertans was one of the most improved players in the league last year and it stands to reason he will have increased usage whenever there are games that Westbrook sits.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Raul Neto, Bradley Beal, Davis BertansÂ
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Raul Neto, Bradley Beal, Davis BertansÂ
Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks (-12.5): 221
Cleveland Cavaliers
It is hard to know what the make of the Cavaliers right now. Darius Garland remains out while Collin Sexton is questionable. Sexton was ruled active last game, only to get ruled out five minutes before tip. This makes Cleveland a situation we need to stay on top of right up until the game starts.
If Sexton is out, Damyean Dotson would move into the starting lineup. He made the spot start last game and played 35 minutes. Dotson is a player to ignore if Sexton is in, while he becomes one of the top value plays if Sexton is out. Dotson isn’t a great per-minute fantasy producer, but this becomes less of an issue when his price is this cheap and we can expect him to play over 30 minutes.
Cleveland is so thin on playmakers that we have seen Cedi Osman facilitate most of the offense in recent games. He has racked up seven assists in three consecutive games and is one of the only viable cheap small forward options on FanDuel. Particularly if Sexton is out, it’s nearly impossible to get away from Osman on FanDuel. He would easily wind up as my most rostered small forward in FanDuel NBA contests in that situation. For now, I am assuming Sexton plays but it’s a 50/50 proposition.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Cedi Osman
Milwaukee Bucks
For now, the Bucks aren’t a team that is coming up much in my exposures tonight. This is the tail end of a back-to-back and they are the biggest favorites on the slate by a wide margin. Favored by 12 points without rest, this could end up as a spot the Bucks look to sit players. If that happens, I will get exposure, but for now, I don’t have confidence in core players getting extended minutes. It is also notable that Giannis took a hard fall last night, which could also give the Bucks reason to play him less than full minutes. Especially with Sexton ailing, Milwaukee shouldn’t need starters to play massive minutes to get a win today.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None
San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves (+5.5): 234
San Antonio Spurs
This game has the second highest total on the slate. This opens up a handful of viable plays. In DraftKings NBA contests, DeMar DeRozan is coming up in a significant amount of my early builds. On FanDuel, I don’t get to DeRozan much due to the price different. He is $8,300 on FanDuel and $7,800 on DraftKings. The $500 might not seem like much, but it matters. He also plays a more favorable position on DraftKings at small forward. That’s a much tougher position to fill than shooting guard, which is his FanDuel eligibility.
LaMarcus Aldridge is one of my favorite lower owned plays on this slate. After dealing with knee soreness to start the season, Aldridge is finally fit and playing regular minutes. He played a season-high 31 minutes last game and nearly had a 30% usage rate. Aldridge’s role is trending upward in an easy matchup and his salary is yet to adjust. Minnesota has the second worst defensive efficiency in the NBA.
There aren’t many players I have rostered more than Dejounte Murray this season, and I am going back to him tonight. He benefits from the favorable matchup and the Spurs will have to continue to lean on him because of their point guard situation. Murray was expected to split the duties with Derrick White, who is injured. White briefly came back from a toe injury only to injure the toe again. This helps to solidify the playing time for Murray.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Dejounte Murray, DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus AldridgeÂ
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Dejounte Murray, LaMarcus AldridgeÂ
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota is completely up in the air right now. Karl-Anthony Towns was expected to miss an extended period of time due to a wrist injury then was unexpectedly listed as questionable for tonight. His absence hasn’t created much value in the frontcourt as expected since the minutes are getting spread out. The primary benefactors are D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley due to increased usage. The extra shots will disappear if KAT returns, which isn’t clear at the moment. Even if Towns plays, it’s unclear if he will play full minutes. I plan on fading them if Towns plays but will get exposure to DLO and Beasley if Towns is out.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: NoneÂ
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None
Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks (-6): 218.5
Orlando Magic
The Magic were the bane of DFS players’ existence yesterday. All day, Cole Anthony looked like one of the top value options on the slate. Then right before the game started, it was announced he would play limited minutes. I didn’t know what to make of that situation and ended up rostering him in 30% of my lineups. Even after the results, I am not sure if that was the right decision. The game was a blowout so it’s impossible to know how much the team was actually planning on him playing. On FanDuel, they reacted to last night by making Anthony less expensive while DraftKings made him more expensive. I am willing to take the risk at $4,800 on FanDuel but there are likely better plays on DraftKings at his $5,500 salary.
The reason Anthony is in a good situation is because starting point guard Markelle Fultz is out for the season. This isn’t the only injury situation the Magic are dealing with, Evan Fournier and Michael-Carter Williams are also out. With the two of them out, James Ennis started last night. At min price on DraftKings and close to min price on FanDuel. He is a good punt play and should play significant minutes. I can’t read too much into last night’s game since the score dictated it was basically over 15 minutes in. Gary Clark is also a decent cheap option but I am getting slightly more exposure to Ennis if you need to pick one of them as a value.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: James Ennis, Gary Clark, Nikola VucevicÂ
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: James Ennis, Gary Clark, Nikola Vucevic, Cole AnthonyÂ
Dallas Mavericks
Playing against a depleted Magic team, Luka Doncic is my favorite option to pay up for on this slate. Not only is the lack of bodies an issue for Orlando, they are playing on the tail end of a back-to-back. Fatigue could present an issue on defense. It looks like this slate will end up having a lot of value, we will need to spend that salary somewhere. Since I have expressed concern with the playing time for Giannis in the Bucks’ situation, I am going to land on Doncic frequently. He is a core play for me and will end up in many more of my lineups than the field has him. Doncic is the clear top expensive options to me.
As for other plays on Dallas, nobody really stands out. Willie Cauley-Stein is a viable option from a projection standpoint but he isn’t landing in many of my lineups at the moment. He plays a position in center that is easy to fill while other value options rate out a bit higher. I don’t fault anybody who wants to play WCS now that it looks like he is the starting center going forward but he isn’t a priority play for me.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic
Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings (+6): 237
Portland Trail Blazers
In the game with the top total on the slate, we want to get exposure to the Blazers. Between C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard, I am almost always going to lean towards Dame as the top play. I understand McCollum is off to a great start with increased usage, but I don’t buy this as the new normal for him. There isn’t much of a price gap between the Blazers’ guards and I have to lean on history, which tells us that Lillard is the far superior fantasy producer. McCollum is too expensive for me to get exposure to him.
In the frontcourt, things are finally starting to look better for Jusuf Nurkic. His minutes waned to open the season, which is something we finally have an answer for. His grandmother died from COVID-19 towards the end of last season and Nurkic admitted that spending time with his family took away from his ability to stay in shape during the offseason. Nurkic is playing himself into better shape and his minutes are starting to trend upwards. This makes me feel better about his playing time going forward and he’s underpriced compared to his salary at the end of last season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard, Jusuf NurkicÂ
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, Robert Covington
Sacramento Kings
De’Aaron Fox was expected to play limited minutes last night because of a sore hamstring. If not for a blowout, he probably would have played close to his normal run. The injury is not something I consider much of a concern on this slate. The upside and total of this game far outweighs any risk. Fox played well while he was on the court until the Kings got run over by the Raptors and starters didn’t have to play in the fourth quarter. Despite the high total, I am not getting other Kings’ players in my lineups so I won’t stretch to write any of them up. I am sure people will want to play Tyrese Haliburton but I don’t totally buy into his early season production. He’s due for regression since he’s shooting over 50% from three.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox
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