NBA DFS Picks Projections & Ownerhsip for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

The NBA DFS Deep Dive is our primary in-depth daily fantasy basketball article, and it will be free this season. This article’s goal isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections, and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for any format.

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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel | April 3

Guards

Russell Westbrook ($11,000 DraftKings/$11,100 FanDuel) – Westbrook is crushing lately and a lot of it has to do with the absence of Bradley Beal. Beal has missed each of the last three games and is questionable to play tonight. I hope he plays. There are already a number of strong pay up options to consider on the slate and it’s tough to ignore Westbrook is Beal is out. If Beal plays, I will look elsewhere to spend up in most of my lineups. Westbrook would take a hit in usage rate if Beal were to return to action.

Luka Doncic ($10,600 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel) – Playing against the Wizards, Doncic is my favorite expensive option on the slate. Not only is the matchup great, Kristaps Porzingis is resting tonight since this is the tail end of a back-to-back. When he’s off the court, Doncic’s usage rate jumps to 37.2%. His fantasy production doesn’t usually chance when Porzingis is off the court because a dip in assist rate offsets in the increased usage. However, this shouldn’t be an issue when Doncic gets such a strong matchup against Washington.

Jordan Clarkson ($6,100 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) – Since this is the tail end of a back-to-back, I am assuming that Mike Conley will not play. He has typically sat when the Jazz play games in consecutive games and Utah is playing against a hapless Magic team. We might even see more than just Conley rest for tonight since Utah is favored by 15 points and should win this game easily. Even though he likely won’t start, Clarkson sees extra playing time in games without Conley.

Tyrese Haliburton ($6,200 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) – Haliburton is a FanDuel specific play. Since moving into the starting lineup, his production has taken off. He no longer has a minutes restriction and is playing well over 30 minutes in competitive games. DraftKings has priced him up for his starting role in the second half of the season but FanDuel is lagging to adjust his price. If looking at box scores, ignore the result from last night. Haliburton struggled but the Kings also got blown out and the starters played limited minutes.

Joe Ingles ($5,700 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) – I like Ingles for pretty much all the same reasons that I like Clarkson. When Conley is out, Ingles moves into the starting lineup and he usually performs well for his price. The pricing algorithms are yet to figure out that Conley doesn’t play on consecutive games so Ingles is always about $1,000 too cheap in these situations. As a starter, Ingles is playing 31 minutes per game and averaging 32.21 DraftKings points.

Patty Mills ($3,900 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) – In my initial builds, Mills is a guy that I am going to in a chunk of lineups. I have a feeling this won’t be the case later but I felt I should write him up on the off chance that players don’t get ruled out later in the day. Mills is a fringe value play with some upside after playing 32 minutes last game since Lonnie Walker is out.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic, Jordan Clarkson

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic, Jordan Clarkson, Joe Ingles

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Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel) – Giannis is coming off one of the craziest efficiency games in NBA history. He scored 47 points last night on 18/21 shooting from the field. All three of his misses were threes. So inside the arc, Giannis made all 18 of his shot attempts. Something like that isn’t repeatable but the Kings are one of the best fantasy matchups possible. Sacramento plays at a fast pace with one of the worst defensive efficiencies in the NBA. As a result, the Bucks have the highest team total on this slate by far. I prefer paying up for Doncic over Antetokounmpo although so many players have gotten ruled out in recent days that it isn’t hard to envision a scenario where we can roster both together.

Doug McDermott ($4,000 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) – We came into today with a bunch of players listed and questionable and most of them are still questionable. While this is leaving a ton of uncertainty as to the best plays on the slate, we do have an update on Domantas Sabonis. He’s out after rolling his ankle last night while Malcolm Brogdon is questionable after missing last night’s game. This opens up usage and playing time for the Pacers. McDermott is one of the most obvious benefactors and becomes one of the top forward options on FanDuel and DraftKings. I expect him to move back into the starting lineup until Sabonis returns.

Justin Holiday ($4,400 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) – I might as well copy and paste everything above written about McDermott. Due to the injuries the Pacers are dealing with, both these guys are a bit too cheap and there isn’t another strong way to turn to value at the forward position as of now. One thing to add is that Jeremy Lamb is questionable to play. If he’s out, this creates even more minutes for Holiday and McDermott to fill.

Josh Richardson ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) – With the news that Porzingis is out, Richardson has become one of the more popular plays on the slate. While I do think he’s a good play and he will end up in my player pool, I think he’s going a bit over owned. He’s projected for over 30% ownership on FanDuel and prefer rostering guys like McDermott and Holiday for cheaper. The matchup for Richardson is great but it’s not like he sees a massive boost with Porzingis off the court. Without Porzingis, Richardson scores 27.13 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with a 20.7% usage rate.

Dean Wade ($4,800 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) – One of the most popular plays on the slate, the masses are flocking to roster Wade since Jarrett Allen and Larry Nance Jr. are both out. While I get it to an extent and I project him decently, this is another case of a player picking up more ownership than I am comfortable with. Wade is currently projected to wind up in about a quarter of lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings. He isn’t a great point per minute fantasy producer and the field is rostering him like he’s Dwyane Wade.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Justin Holiday, Doug McDermott

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Justin Holiday, Doug McDermott

Centers

Jakob Poeltl ($6,200 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) – Poeltl is quietly playing at an extremely high level in the second half of the season. With LaMarcus Aldridge now on the Nets, Poeltl is holding down the center minutes for the Spurs and nothing holds him back other than occasional foul trouble. He’s scored over 36 DraftKings points in four consecutive games and his price never really chances much on either site.

Myles Turner ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) – Turner is one of the top plays on the slate with Sabonis out. His production this season is spotty for fantasy purposes although he becomes a different player without Sabonis. When he’s off the court, Turner has a 24.5% usage rate and scores 46.95 DraftKings points per 36 minutes. As of this afternoon, he’s also not projected for much ownership.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Myles Turner

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Myles Turner

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.