The 2020-2021 NBA season continues Wednesday, Dec. 30, with a star-studded six-game slate. Below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.
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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades + Ownership | 12/30
Power Forward: Jayson Tatum
Grades: DraftKings: A, Values: A FanDuel Grades: A, Values: B
Tatum was tremendous last night, recording 52.75 DraftKings points across 40.3 minutes in the win over the Pacers. The 22-year-old is now scoring 45 DraftKings points per game this season and is leading the Celtics with a robust 33.4% usage rate with Kemba Walker (out, knee) still sidelined. For Wednesday night, Tatum will be back at home against the Grizzlies, who rank 21st in defensive efficiency and third in pace in 2020-21.
In a pair of meetings, Tatum produced 42.9 DraftKings points per game against Memphis last season, and Boston presents an implied team total of 112 points. In the last five contests where the Celtics have been slated for 110 points or more, he is generating 47.4 DraftKings points per game. There really isn’t any reasoning behind it, but Tatum has seen his DraftKings’ salary drop to a new season low, and he must be utilized in both cash games and GPPs on that site.
Update: Tatum (questionable) has popped up on the injury report with a thumb injury. As one of the best targets of the night, we obviously need to keep an eye on his status, and luckily this is one of the first games of the night to tip off, so we should have word on Tatum well before roster lock. If he were to sit, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart would be the main beneficiaries. There were no full games without Walker, Tatum and Gordon Hayward (now with the Hornets) last season, but when all three were off the court, Brown and Smart saw their usage rates jump 6.8% and 4.1%, respectively.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 30.9%, FanDuel 38.7%
Small Forward: DeMar DeRozan
Grades: DraftKings: B, Values: A FanDuel Grades: B, Values: C
Similar to Tatum, DeRozan has seen a notable decrease in his salary on DraftKings. He was just $8,000 two games ago, and this is the cheapest he has been in 19 games. The forward did struggle Sunday night against the Pelicans, scoring only 27.75 DraftKings points, but this was the second night of a back-to-back and DeRozan’s only lackluster showing of the season. In his first two starts of the year, the 31-year-old was outstanding, providing 56.25 DraftKings points against the Grizzlies and 49.75 DraftKings points versus the Raptors.
The most notable change to his role this season has been his work as a playmaker. DeRozan currently leads the Spurs with 35.5% assist percentage, which is a major increase from 26.1% he averaged a year ago. His matchup with the Lakers isn’t the greatest (Lakers are ninth in defensive efficiency), but DeRozan has done just fine in this spot in the past, producing 43.6 DraftKings points per game in his last two dates with the defending champs. Additionally, this contest is expected to be a high-scoring and competitive affair, with Vegas giving it an over/under of 228.5 points and only favoring the Lakers by 6 points. In his last 10 contests that presented a spread of 6 points or fewer, DeRozan is amassing 40.6 DraftKings points per game. He is a cash-game lock on DraftKings and a very appealing GPP target on FanDuel considering his low projected ownership on the site via Awesemo’s projections.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 26.9%, FanDuel 4.4%
Center: Robert Williams
Grades: DraftKings: D, Values: B FanDuel Grades: C, Values: B
Tonight the Celtics will be without Tristan Thompson, who is being rested on the second night of a back-to-back. The former Cavalier has been starting at center for the Celtics and playing 23 minutes per game. With him absent, Daniel Theis should slide over to the five spot in the starting lineup, and Williams will be the primary big man off the bench for Boston.
Most DFS players will instantly gravitate to Theis as the starter, creating an excellent opportunity to attack the more productive Williams in GPPs. This season, the extremely athletic 23-year-old is scoring 1.2 DraftKings points per minute, compared to only 0.7 DraftKings points per minute for Theis. They should split all the center minutes pretty evenly tonight, and it wouldn’t be shocking at all to see Theis get in early foul trouble against Grizzlies’ center Jonas Valanciunas. Either way, Williams should receive 20-plus minutes and is a perfect way to gain leverage in large-field tournaments on Wednesday. Awesemo is projecting him for minimal ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and in the six career games he has topped 20 minutes, Williams is supplying 28 DraftKings points per game.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 0.1%, FanDuel 0.1%
Shooting Guard: Tyler Herro
Grades: DraftKings: B, Values: A FanDuel Grades: B, Values: A
Jimmy Butler (ankle) will miss his second straight game Wednesday. With him absent last night, Herro played 33.2 minutes and recorded 40.25 DraftKings points against the Bucks, both of which were team highs. The 20-year-old notched a season-high seven assists on Tuesday, and when Butler has been off the floor in 2020-21, Herro has seen his assist rate rise 7.3%.
Even with Butler injured, this rematch from last night carries a game total of 226.5 points, and the Bucks have been an average defense so far, ranking 15th in defensive efficiency. Herro should eclipse 30 fantasy points again and is a no-brainer at the always-thin shooting guard position.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 27.1%, FanDuel 57.5%
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