Happy New Year’s Eve everyone! For Thursday night, we get a five-game slate to attack. Below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks for both FanDuel and DraftKings based on Awesemo’s grades and values.
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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades + Ownership | 12/31
Point Guard: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Grades: DraftKings: A, Values: A FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A
Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t disappointed as the top option with the Thunder this season, scoring 42.4 DraftKings points per game across his first three starts. He has led the team in minutes per game (34.7), usage (30.3%) and assist percentage (33.3%), which are huge upgrades from his rates a year ago. With Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder, Danilo Gallinari and Steven Adamson Oklahoma City last season, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged a 24.2% usage rate and a 14.4% assist percentage.
The 22-year-old is generating 1.23 DraftKings points per minute this season and For New Year’s Eve, Gilgeous-Alexander will be facing the Pelicans who ranked 2nd in pace last year. At only $8,100, the point guard is ranking as the top point-per-dollar value on DraftKings, per Awesemo’s projections.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 30.7, FanDuel 32.2%
Point Guard: John Wall
Grades: DraftKings: B, Values: B FanDuel Grades: B, Values: A
Wall missed the Rockets’ first two games due to Covid-19 protocols and will make his season debut Thursday vs the Kings. After missing the entire 2019-2020 season with an Achilles injury, the Kentucky product looked strong in the preseason, producing 1.37 DraftKings points per minute. He should play roughly 30-35 minutes a game as the Rockets’ starting point guard and he is returning at a perfect time with this matchup against the Kings presenting a slate-high over/under game total of 232 points.
This is the highest total of the slate, by a notable 11.5 points and Wall’s current Vegas prop line is projecting him for 20 points, seven assists and three rebounds, which is already 34.25 DraftKings points before defensive stats. Without even playing a game, Wall has seen his DraftKings’ price drop $800 since opening night and he is rating as a top-five point-per-dollar value on the site, via Awesemo’s projections.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 20.7%, FanDuel 31.9%
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Point Guard: De’Aaron Fox
Grades: DraftKings: A, Values: B FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A
If we exclude his ugly showing against the Suns (15.5 DraftKings points per game), which wasn’t surprising going against one of the best defensive point guards in the league in Chris Paul, Fox has been a stud this season, amassing 43.9 DraftKings PPG. He recorded 47.25 DraftKings points against the Nuggets in his last start and as previously noted, this Kings vs Rockets’ matchup is easily projected for the most points of the night with it’s 232 point over/under game total.
The Rockets rank 4th in pace this season and in his last ten contests that carried an over/under game total of at least 225 points, Fox is providing 41.6 DraftKings per game. He should top 40 fantasy points in this spot and a game stack of Wall and Fox is one of my favorite strategies for New Year’s Eve.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 20.5%, FanDuel 30.7%
Power Forward: Royce O’Neale
Grades: DraftKings: D, Values: B FanDue’ Grades: D, Values: A
O’Neale stands out as a strong punt for this five-game slate that lacks appealing cheap values. Based on Awesemo’s projections, the forward is slated for 31 minutes of action tonight, which is the highest minute projection for any player under $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. His playing time was limited in their season opening blowout loss to the Blazers, but in these past two games, which were both decided by single digits, O’Neale logged 33.8 minutes per game and provided 21.4 DraftKings points per game.
Tonight’s meeting with the Suns is expected to stay competitive throughout with Phoenix only favored by 3.5 points. Barring foul trouble, O’Neal should receive over 30 minutes and exceed five-times value on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 23.7%, FanDuel 10.9%
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