After last night’s two-game slate to kick off the 2020-21 NBA season, tonight there are 13 games on tap. Four of these contests present game totals above 230 points, and we should see some huge scores on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Below are some of my favorite NBA daily fantasy picks based on Awesemo’s grades and values for Wednesday night.
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NBA Daily Fantasy Picks: Awesemo Grades, Value & Ownership
PG: Luka Doncic Grades: DraftKings: A, Values: A FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A
Doncic had a tremendous tenure in the NBA bubble this past summer, scoring 53.6 DraftKings points per game, and for his first matchup of the 2020-21 season, the 21-year-old will face off against the Suns. With a slate-high total of 234.5 points, this Western Conference matchup is projecting to be one of, if not the best contest to attack for Wednesday night’s massive 13-game slate. The last time Doncic suited up for a contest with a total above 230 points, the Slovenian recorded 64.3 DraftKings points against the Clippers back in August.
In addition to this being an elite game environment, Doncic should take on an even larger workload with Kristaps Porzingis (knee) officially ruled out. When the power forward was off the court last year, Doncic led the Mavericks with 1.61 DraftKings points per minute. Even as the third-highest priced player on DraftKings, the blossoming superstar is rating as a top-five point-per-dollar value this evening based on Awesemo’s NBA DFS rankings.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 40.3%, FanDuel 24.2%
PG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Grades: A, Values: A FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A
The Thunder made some wholesale changes this offseason that should result in a huge role for Gilgeous-Alexander. They lost 11 players in total, most notably Chris Paul, Dennis Schroder and Danilo Gallinari. When these three were off the floor last season, Gilgeous-Alexander saw his usage rate skyrocket to a team-high 32.1%, helping him to 1.17 DraftKings points per minute.
The Thunder’s new look starting five this year consists of Gilgeous-Alexander, George Hill, Luguentz Dort, Darius Bazley and Al Horford. None of these players command high usage rates other than Gilgeous-Alexander, and he should see his usage rate crack 30% this evening against the Rockets, who were the fifth-fastest team in basketball a year ago. This tilt sports a healthy total of 224.5 points, and Gilgeous-Alexander should exceed 5x value on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 16.3%, FanDuel 15.7%
C: Deandre Ayton Grades: A, Values A FanDuel Grades: A, Values: A
Ayton is another great asset to attack from the Suns – Mavericks game. With Aron Baynes now in Toronto, we should see Ayton log roughly 35 minutes on a nightly basis this season. He produced 1.23 DraftKings points per minute last season and averaged 38.9 DraftKings points per game when the Suns’ game total was greater than 225 points.
The Mavs ranked 21st in defensive efficiency last season, and Phoenix presents the second-highest implied team total of the 26 teams in action tonight (117.5 points). Lastly, Ayton’s Vegas prop line is set at a double-double of 18 points, 11 rebounds and two assists. When we include DraftKings’ 1.5 fantasy point bonus for a double-double, this projects Ayton for 35.75 DraftKings points before defensive stats. The center has a ceiling close to 50 DraftKings points tonight, and he is expected to be under-owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel based on Awesemo’s NBA DFS ownership projections.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 10.1%, FanDuel 8.5%
C: Christian Wood Grades: A, Values: A FanDuel Grades: A
It is only the second night of the NBA season, and we are already getting some insane injury news. This morning, reports came out that the NBA was investigating James Harden for a possible violation of the league’s COVID-19 protocols. Now, John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins have been deemed unlikely to play tonight due to COVID-19 contact tracing, and it seems likely that more players from Houston will be ruled out before their matchup with the Thunder tonight.
With Cousins out of the picture, Wood instantly receives a boost to his already strong fantasy stock. In the one preseason game he was active for, the 25-year-old contributed 49 DraftKings points against the Spurs in only 23.6 minutes. Last year with the Pistons, Wood scored 43.7 DraftKings points per game in his final 10 contests before the NBA season was suspended. Assuming he isn’t sent home for contact tracing himself, Wood should receive big minutes tonight with Cousins absent against the Thunder. Via Awesemo’s projections, Wood is estimated for 33 minutes Wednesday, and he is easily rating as the top point-per-dollar value on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Projected NBA DFS ownership projection: DraftKings 28.6%, FanDuel 52.5%
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