NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays: Caris LeVert & More

Monday presents a 10-game slate to NBA DFS players, and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will use leverage data from Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool to find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Monday, Jan. 2, which include Caris LeVert.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Jan. 2

High-End Tier

Hovering around 20% expected ownership in Stokastic’s projections , LeBron James is anticipated to be the most popular stud for this 10-game slate. The last time he took the floor, the future Hall-of-Famer celebrated his birthday with a 76-DraftKings point outing against the Hawks. Now, James will compete in the highest total on the slate (242.5 points). He’ll face the Charlotte Hornets, who rank 25th in defensive efficiency and fourth in pace. Those are great selling points, but DFS players shouldn’t chase James’ huge birthday performance and should pivot since this slate offers a plethora of other pay-up options to attack.

Before that showing against the Hawks, James had scored fewer than 50 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts and had only topped 60 DraftKings points once in his previous 10 games. The Lakers even played the Hornets during this stretch, and James only produced 51 DraftKings points in that contest — not good enough for value at his current salary. With heavy ownership coming his way, James rates as a negative leverage target at both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.

Opposite of James, LaMelo Ball brings similar upside tonight at a slightly cheaper cost and with less expected ownership in Stokastic’s projections. Specifically, he is forecasted to come with single-digit ownership on DraftKings. Ball has been terrific, generating 53 DraftKings points per game across his last seven starts with a 30.1% usage rate during this run. Both the Hornets and Lakers rank inside the top five in pace this season, and Charlotte’s implied team total is the second-highest on the slate (122 points). This is the highest implied team total the Hornets have seen all year, and Ball has a ceiling of over 60 fantasy points in this up-tempo environment.

NBA DFS players should also pay attention to Donovan Mitchell and Anthony Edwards. The Cavaliers likely won’t have Darius Garland (doubtful, thumb) for the second-straight game. Before disappointing with only 32.3 DraftKings points on Saturday, Mitchell had generated 54 DraftKings points per game in his first five starts of the season without Garland. With him off the floor, Mitchell’s usage rises by 3.3 percentage points to 34.5%, and he averages 1.3 DraftKings points per minute. He’ll face that same Bulls squad again tonight, and Chicago ranks only 19th in defensive efficiency. As a result, Mitchell should bounce back and approach 50 fantasy points. He is notably only projected for 15% ownership at DraftKings.

As for Edwards, the Wolves remain without Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) and are hosting a Nuggets club that ranks 26th in defensive efficiency and is on the second leg of a back-to-back. With Towns off the court this season, Edwards leads Minnesota with a 29.1% usage rate, which is a 1.6 percentage point upgrade from his season average, and provides 1.3 DraftKings points per minute. With Towns out for the last month, Edwards has flashed some serious upside on his home floor, contributing 54 DraftKings points per game in his seven starts in Minnesota during this span. He is one of the best GPP targets on the board, especially at DraftKings, where Stokastic projects Edwards for less than 5% ownership.

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Value Tier

Caris LeVert is a tough value to ignore at less than $5K on DraftKings with Garland expected to be inactive – even though Stokastic projects him for the highest ownership on the slate. LeVert replaced Garland in the starting five on Saturday. He finished with 39.25 DraftKings points and a team-high 37 minutes. He ranks second only to Mitchell in usage with Garland off the floor this season (21.8%) and scores 0.9 DraftKings points per minute in the expanded role. LeVert is averaging 30.4 DraftKings points per game when given over 30 minutes this season (28 games) and is chalk to be embraced at DraftKings.

On the other hand, Kevon Looney is bad chalk to avoid tonight. The Warriors are thin in their frontcourt without Jonathan Kuminga (foot), JaMychal Green (leg) and James Wiseman (ankle). As a result, Looney is projected to rank second (DraftKings) and first (FanDuel) in ownership tonight. While this seems like a for Looney to get big minutes, that’s an unreasonable expectation. Looney has yet to crack 30 this season, and Golden State should rely more on small-ball lineups with Draymond Green at the five. Further, Patrick Baldwin Jr. should see more work off the bench after getting recalled from the G-League on Friday.

Speaking of Baldwin, he is priced near the minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is projected for essentially no ownership on both sites. That makes him an appealing punt to consider. He is averaging 1.1 DraftKings points per minute this season and should easily beat his cheap salaries with Golden State short on bigs tonight. He could easily play 15 to 20 minutes off the bench. He averaged 20 DraftKings points per game in the three games he saw 10-plus minutes.

Elsewhere, Alec Burks is getting way overlooked and is a great GPP target. The Pistons will continue to be without Cade Cunningham (shin) and Killian Hayes (suspension), and although he won’t start, Burks should see plenty of usage in this situation. He brings terrific upside relative to his reasonable salary against a Portland defense that ranks 21st in defensive efficiency. Burks averaged 34.2 DraftKings points per game in his last four and averages 1.1 DraftKings points per minute behind a 25% usage rate with Cunningham and Hayes off the floor this season.

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Situations to Monitor

Joel Embiid (questionable, back) is the most crucial name to monitor on Monday. He was downgraded to questionable earlier today. If Embiid sits, James Harden will become one of the most lucrative options on the slate regardless of his ownership. With Embiid off the floor this season, Harden’s usage leaps 6.3 percentage points to 32.1%, and he scores 1.5 DraftKings points per minute.

Paul Reed would also make for an appealing punt regardless of whether he starts. He has scored 1 DraftKings point per minute this season and was outstanding when Embiid missed four consecutive games back in November. He scored 31.5 DraftKings points in 25.5 minutes per game off the bench. Luckily, the 76ers are one of the first teams of the night to tip off at 7:00 PM ET, so NBA DFS players should get word on Embiid early.

Fred VanVleet (questionable, back) has missed the last two, and if he remains sidelined tonight, Gary Trent Jr. will be an awesome value against the Pacers, who rank 20th in defensive efficiency and 10th in pace. After posting 32 DraftKings points off the bench in the first game VanVleet missed, Trent entered the starting lineup the next game and went off for 53.25 DraftKings points. He played 39 minutes with a massive 32.6% usage rate.

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