NBA DFS Today: Optimal Lineup Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel

The NBA Deep Dive is our most in-depth NBA DFS article, offering analysis of some of the top picks and optimal strategy for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups on the slate today. Used in conjunction with Awesemo’s NBA DFS projections, ownership projections and Boom/Bust tool, it should help you to improve the quality of your lineups. With news breaking throughout the day and the NBA injury reports being released, the best place to find all of today’s starters is our Awesemo NBA Starting Lineups page.

The Deep Dive: NBA DFS Picks & Optimal Lineup Strategy

Note: There could be some messy news around the Philadelphia 76ers as Isaiah Joe is in health and safety protocols so the rest of the team is being tested for Covid. Keep an eye out for news as their rotation has the potential to be extremely short-handed. Furkan Korkmaz was also a late addition to the injury report with a wrist injury. His absence would solidify minutes for Matisse Thybulle, Shake Milton and Georges Niang.

Guard

Russell Westbrook ($10,700 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) went from borderline unplayable to one of the top options on the slate with the news that LeBron James will be sidelined. Westbrook has averaged 1.66 DraftKings points per minute in 37.2 minutes per game in the two games he has played without James this season. In 132 total minutes without him on the floor, Westbrook has produced 1.53 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.9% usage rate, 13.9% rebounding rate and 44.6% assist rate. Your ol’ pal EMac also talked about Westbrook as a great play in the NBA DFS Building Blocks, be sure to see what Eric has to say about Westbrook tonight.

Chris Paul ($8,500 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) faces the Houston Rockets, who currently lead the league in pace. They are 11^th in defensive rating so they have been more efficient than expected so far, but the pace is still a positive for Paul. Paul has produced 1.25 DraftKings points per minute this season with a massive 51.4% assist rate. He has also played 37 and 36 minutes in his last two games. One seemingly small piece of news to pay attention to is the status of Cameron Payne. He has been sidelined for a few games but is questionable tonight. If he returns, Paul could return to the 31 or 32 minutes that he typically plays.

Tyler Herro ($6,700 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) has played at a high level to start the season. He leads Miami with a 29.8% usage rate and has averaged 31.5 minutes per game as he is typically in the closing lineup. In addition to the high usage rate, Herro has also contributed a 10% rebounding rate and 22.6% assist rate this season while averaging 1.18 DraftKings points per minute.

Kevin Porter Jr. ($6,400 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) feels risky because he is on a bad team, but he is inexpensive for the amount of playing time that he is likely to receive. Porter played about 39 minutes in the Rockets’ most recent game, and it is not unusual for him to exceed 36 minutes in competitive contests. There is some blowout risk in this game, but that is mostly mitigated by his salary. Porter has produced 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 24.1% usage rate and 27.1% assist rate.

Seth Curry ($5,900 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) is going to need to play a lot of minutes tonight against the Pistons. Curry has seen more usage in his last couple of games as he has benefited from the absence of Tobias Harris. Curry has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute overall this season, and in 80 minutes without Harris on the floor, that has increased to 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.2% usage rate.

Cade Cunningham ($4,000 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) has been disappointing in his first two NBA games, finishing with 14.75 DraftKings points in 19 minutes in his debut and 12 DraftKings points in 29 minutes in his second game. While he has started his career by shooting 3-22 overall and 0-14 from three, there are plenty of reasons to consider him a top value on tonight’s slate. Detroit announced before their last game that he was no longer limited and then he played about 29 minutes, including some garbage time run that suggests they really are not concerned about limiting his playing time at this point. He also has a 23.7% usage rate through his first two games, along with a respectable 9.8% rebounding rate and 18.5% assist rate.

Forward

Anthony Davis ($10,300 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) also benefits from the absence of LeBron James. Davis has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute in six games alongside James and Westbrook compared to 1.45 DraftKings points per minute in the two games that he has played without James. He has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.5% usage rate, 16.5% rebounding rate and 11.1% assist rate in 128 minutes without James on the floor this season.

Saddiq Bey ($5,900 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) is not typically a player that stands out to me, but there are not as many strong options on tonight’s slate as there normally are. He grades out as a strong mid-range value, assuming Detroit is able to keep the game close against Philadelphia. Bey would most likely play at least 33 or 34 minutes if the game is competitive, and he has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 21.6% usage rate, 12.6% rebounding rate and 15.2% assist rate.

Carmelo Anthony ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) has only averaged 0.52 DraftKings points per minute in the two games that he has played without LeBron James, but he has also averaged 30.5 minutes per game in those games. The poor per-minute production is explained by a small sample size and focus on the likelihood that he will play a few extra minutes tonight with James out. Anthony has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute with a 20.1% usage rate this season.

Josh Giddey ($5,800 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) has performed well so far in his rookie season. He is second on Oklahoma City with 1.06 DraftKings points per minute. He has a 19.6% usage rate, 10.3% rebounding rate and team-leading 33.6% assist rate so far. Giddey played about 34 minutes last game, and if Luguentz Dort is out again tonight, expect similar playing time for Giddey. If Dort returns, Giddey is likely to get 30 to 32 minutes.

Matisse Thybulle ($3,600 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) does not offer much upside offensively as he only has a 9.3% usage rate this season. He does offer an unusual amount of defensive upside, however, because he has averaged five steals and three blocks per 100 possessions this season. Since the start of last season, Thybulle has averaged 3.9 steals and 2.6 blocks per 100 possessions. The defensive stats help to offset his offensive limitations and he has averaged 0.67 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season and 0.74 DraftKings points per minute so far this season. He started in place of Danny Green last night and played about 38 minutes. He is likely to get similar playing time tonight, as the 76ers will once again be without Green and Tobias Harris. Isaiah Joe is also in health and safety protocols, so the 76ers are extremely short-handed on the wings.

Latest NBA DFS Content

Center

Rudy Gobert ($8,600 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) has been excellent so far this season. He leads the NBA with 26 rebound chances per game, which is nearly three more than second place Jonas Valanciunas despite averaging almost three less minutes per game. Gobert has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute so far this season and he is still reasonably priced for his matchup tonight against Atlanta.

Bam Adebayo ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) has a higher usage rate so far this season than last season and he is rebounding at a high level as well. He has produced 1.32 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.5% usage rate and he is third in the NBA with 21.5 rebound chances per game. The only negative for Adebayo has been that his assist rate is down from 25.2% last season to 8.1% this season. This can probably be attributed to the addition of Kyle Lowry, who is averaging 14.2 potential assists per game, and the emergence of Herro who has averaged 9.1 potential assists per game. Still, as long as Adebayo maintains his increased usage rate and excellent rebounding numbers, he will not need as many assists.

DeAndre Ayton ($6,600 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) is questionable for tonight’s game after missing the Suns’ last game. If he is able to play, he will not be limited since he only missed one game. He would step into a matchup against a fast-paced Houston squad. Ayton has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute in 29.8 minutes per game this season. If he is unable to play, JaVale McGee and Frank Kaminsky are value options after McGee played 19.2 minutes and Kaminsky played 28.5 minutes in Ayton’s absence on Tuesday.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!

Share this on:

X (Twitter) Facebook

[NBAPAGE]

Author

Adam Scherer

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].