This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to catch the Awesemo NBA Daily Fantasy Strategy Show every morning on our Awesemo YouTube Channel to find the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel!
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | April 5
Point Guard
Stephen Curry ($9,700 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) faces the Milwaukee Bucks in a game between the second and third-fastest teams over the last month. Milwaukee is also in the top 10 in defensive rating over that time, but the extra possessions should benefit an efficient scorer like Curry. Overall this season, he has averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute and 33.5 minutes per game in 27 games played with Draymond Green and James Wiseman active.
Trae Young ($9,100 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) was absolutely awful against Golden State on Sunday. He also only played 28 minutes in that game, which is slightly concerning. He has averaged 33 minutes per game over the last month, however, so I am assuming his playing time last game was an anomaly. Young has a 39.1 percent usage rate in 429 minutes without John Collins on the floor this season, but his usage rate and per-minute production in games without Collins dating back to last season are similar to his numbers in games that Collins has played. The Pelicans are 21st in defensive rating and 14th in pace over the last month. New Orleans has been average at defending the pick-and-roll this season in terms of points per possession but they have allowed the 10th fewest pick-and-roll possessions per game. It is possible that we see them look to get the ball out of Young’s hands and force Atlanta’s wings to beat them with 3-pointers. Young’s salary is inexpensive enough, however, that I’m not going to get too bogged down in play-type data when it comes to deciding whether or not to roster him. I think there is more upside than downside.
Dennis Schroder ($6,900 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) has a matchup against a struggling Toronto team. The Raptors are 15th in defensive rating and ninth in pace over the last month. Schroder has been a solid fantasy producer without LeBron James and Anthony Davis, averaging 1.12 DraftKings points per minute and 33.6 minutes per game in nine games without either of them active this season. One spot to keep an eye on is the status of Andre Drummond. Drummond is a high-usage player and is likely to cause at least a slight dip in Schroder’s production if he is active and able to play starter’s minutes.
Ja Morant ($7,200 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against the Miami Heat. Miami is 28th in pace over the last month while allowing the sixth fewest points per 100 possessions. Morant has averaged 32.8 minutes per game over the last month and 1.15 DraftKings points per minute this season. There is a good chance that enough alternatives open up between now and lock that my interest in Morant wanes but, right now, he looks like a secondary option on a slate that is surprisingly thin at point guard.
Malcolm Brogdon ($6,800 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) is questionable tonight against the Bulls. Domantas Sabonis is also questionable, so there is the potential for Brogdon to become a core play depending on how news breaks. Brogdon has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute and 33.7 minutes per game in nine games with Caris LeVert and Sabonis both active this season. He has played eight games without Sabonis dating back to last season and has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in those games. If Sabonis sits and Brogdon is active (and not limited) he will project as one of the top point guard options. If Sabonis and Brogdon both play, he is similar to Morant in that he would be a reasonable secondary option but there will probably be better plays available by the time we reach lock.
Malachi Flynn ($3,900 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) ended up coming off the bench instead of starting last night, but he still played 33.8 minutes and was in the closing lineup of a close game. Flynn’s huge game last night was aided by an unusually high number of steals and blocks, and he has only averaged 0.71 DraftKings points per minute this season, but he is inexpensive enough on DraftKings that he looks like a top value option as long as he gets another 32 to 34 minutes tonight against the Lakers. He is much more difficult to roster at $5,100 on FanDuel in a much less appealing matchup than he had last night against Washington.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry, Trae Young, Dennis Schroder, Malachi Flynn
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry, Trae Young, Ja Morant
[DUSTINGRAPHICAD]
Shooting Guard
Paul George ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) gets a favorable matchup against the Trail Blazers, who are 28th in defensive rating and 16th in pace over the last month. George has produced at a similar rate to Kawhi Leonard in games that they have both been active this season, yet he gets a substantially discounted salary — especially on DraftKings. George has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute and 33.6 minutes per game in 34 games alongside Leonard this season.
C.J. McCollum ($8,000 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) has been extremely productive this season, averaging 1.24 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.2 percent usage rate and 25.0 percent assist rate in 23 games played alongside Damian Lillard. There is a little bit of additional usage available tonight as well with Jusuf Nurkic sidelined. The Clippers have played at the sixth-slowest pace over the last month and are fifth in defensive efficiency so the matchup doesn’t look as appealing for McCollum as it does for a similarly priced George, but that could drive down McCollum’s ownership in tournaments.
Caris LeVert ($7,200 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) is too expensive for me to have much interest in if Brogdon and Sabonis play, but if one of them is out it makes LeVert a bit more interesting. If they both sit, LeVert becomes one of the better shooting guard options as he would be heavily involved in the offense. LeVert has only played 64 minutes without Brogdon or Sabonis on the floor since joining Indiana, but he has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.6 percent usage rate and 25 percent assist rate over those minutes.
Zach LaVine ($7,800 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) has seen his salary fall with the Bulls’ addition of Nikola Vucevic. LaVine faces the Pacers, who are fifth in pace and 17th in defensive rating over the last month. They also could be short-handed tonight with two of their best players questionable. LaVine has played four games alongside Vucevic so far and has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute and 31.5 minutes per game. His per-minute production should increase over a larger sample, however, as he has a 32.3 percent usage rate in those games. LaVine has a 15.4 percent assist rate in his games with Vucevic, compared to 23.3 percent in games without Vucevic, but I don’t think that is a big concern either. LaVine has averaged 9.1 potential assists per 36 minutes in the games that Vucevic has played and 10 potential assists per 36 minutes in the games without Vucevic, so I think that his assist rate increases over a larger sample as long as he continues to get the same opportunities that he has in his first several games with Vucevic on the team.
Marcus Smart ($5,600 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) is never a very exciting option when the Celtics are mostly healthy, but he projects as one of the better point-per-dollar options at shooting guard tonight. He has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute in 12 games with Kemba Walker, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown active this season and he is likely to play at least 32 to 34 minutes tonight against the Sixers. Evan Fournier is out so Smart will have a little less competition for playing time and production as well. Mid-range value options like Smart are typically the first to lose value as injury news breaks closer to lock but, for now, he is a useful piece of roster construction.
Josh Jackson ($5,000 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) is a volatile option tonight against the Nuggets. It’s an unappealing matchup and it is difficult to rely on the Pistons for consistent minutes. Still, Jackson has been starting for Detroit and he has averaged about one fantasy point per minute in his games without Blake Griffin or Derrick Rose this season. The Pistons have been involved in a number of blowouts recently, both on the winning and the losing end, so we haven’t seen what their closing lineup looks like in a competitive game. Most likely, it depends on who is playing well. Jackson has a low floor but he also has a relatively high ceiling for his salary.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Paul George, C.J. McCollum, Marcus Smart
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: C.J. McCollum, Zach LaVine, Marcus Smart
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Small Forward
Kawhi Leonard ($9,200 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) may be overpriced compared to George, but he still projects as one of the most appealing small forward options tonight as he faces the Blazers. Leonard has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute and 34.4 minutes per game with a 28.5 percent usage rate and 22.9 percent assist rate in 34 games played with George active this season.
Jimmy Butler ($9,000 DraftKings/$9,100 FanDuel) has one more scorer and playmaker to contend with now that Victor Oladipo is in Miami. Butler’s usage rate has decreased to 20.9 percent in the two games that he has played with Oladipo, but he still has an 11.1 percent rebounding rate and 40.5 percent assist rate. Butler has averaged 1.4 DraftKings points per minute in the two games that they have played together. Butler’s usage rate in games with Bam Adebayo this season is 26.5 percent and his assist rate is 35.1 percent. My expectation is that his usage rate increases from 20.9 percent as he played more games with Oladipo and his assist rate decreases to his 35 percent season average (or a little bit lower). Overall, I think we see Butler contribute at a similar rate to his 1.34 DraftKings point per minute average going forward because he contributes in a variety of ways and he is still the focal point of the offense. Oladipo adds some risk to rostering Butler, but he still projects as a viable small forward option at his current salary.
Jaylen Brown ($7,600 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against the Sixers, who are one of the best defensive teams in the league. He will be playing without Fournier, however, so there is one less mouth to feed in the Celtics’ offense. Brown has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.3 percent usage rate and 34.8 minutes per game in 20 games played without Fournier and with Walker and Tatum active this season.
Kyle Kuzma ($6,800 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.5 percent usage rate, 13.4 percent rebounding rate and 18.4 percent assist rate in 35 minutes per game in the nine games that he has played without James or Davis this season. Like Schroder, Kuzma’s rates will take a hit once Drummond joins the lineup and is able to play starter’s minutes. I am more concerned for Kuzma than I am for Schroder as well since Kuzma has posted strong rebounding numbers without Davis and James and Drummond will almost certainly take rebounds away from Kuzma. My interest level in Kuzma depends heavily on Drummond’s status tonight.
DeAndre’ Bembry ($3,000 DraftKings/$3,700 SG FanDuel) started and played 30.1 minutes with VanVleet sidelined last night. I’m not sure whether or not he will start tonight as Nick Nurse could insert Flynn into the starting lineup, but I think that Bembry will play enough minutes to be a viable value option as the Raptors’ backcourt is still extremely short-handed without VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, Rodney Hood or Paul Watson. Bembry has averaged 0.76 DraftKings points per minute in 172 minutes without Lowry or VanVleet on the floor this season and I expect that we get at least 24 or 25 minutes out of Bembry tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown, DeAndre’ Bembry
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Jaylen Brown
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700 DraftKings/$11,200 FanDuel) is one of the only players on the slate priced above $10,000. He faces a fast-paced Golden State team that is 26th in defensive rating over the last month. In addition to being an inefficient defense overall, the Warriors have allowed the fourth-most points in the paint over that time. Teams that struggle to defend the paint are an ideal matchup for Antetokounmpo as his only weakness is his ability to shoot. He has averaged 1.65 DraftKings points per minute and 33.5 minutes per game in 35 games played with Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday active this season and I expect above average production from him tonight against Golden State.
Pascal Siakam ($8,200 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) was relatively disappointing last night against the Wizards and he has a tougher matchup tonight against a Lakers team that has still been strong defensively without James or Davis. Siakam is the number one option on Toronto’s offense, however, so he has a massive ceiling for his price point. He has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.7 percent usage rate and 25.7 percent assist rate in 114 minutes without Lowry or VanVleet on the floor this season and 1.28 DraftKings points per minute in 325 minutes without them on the floor since the start of last season.
Draymond Green ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) is especially appealing on DraftKings as he is $800 less expensive than he is on FanDuel and he benefits from the double-double and triple-double bonuses. Green has a relatively low floor because he isn’t a high-usage player, but he contributes so much in the way of peripherals that he also has a very high ceiling for his salary. Green has averaged 32.3 minutes per game over the last month but typically plays 34 to36 minutes in competitive games. He has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute with a 13.6 percent usage rate, 10.7 percent rebounding rate and 35.1 percent assist rate in 27 games played with Curry and Wiseman active this season.
Thaddeus Young ($6,000 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute and 25.8 minutes per game in five games with Vucevic this season. He has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute and 25.2 minutes per game in 11 total starts this season as well. Daniel Theis is out tonight, so there should be more frontcourt minutes available in the Bulls’ rotation. There is some risk in rostering Young since his playing time is relatively low for a player at his salary, but he has been an excellent source of fantasy production this season and could see a few more minutes tonight with Theis sidelined.
Aaron Gordon ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) was brought along slowly when he first joined Denver but he has played a lot of minutes over his last couple games. He played about 39 minutes two games ago and followed it up with 34.6 minutes against the Magic last game. He has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute in four games with Denver and projects as a viable option tonight assuming we get another 34-plus minutes.
Marcus Morris ($5,000 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel) has started eight games with both Leonard and George active this season. In those games, Morris has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute and 28.7 minutes per game. He gets an above average matchup tonight against the Blazers and is a reasonable salary saver if you are looking to pay up at other positions.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pascal Siakam, Draymond Green, Thaddeus Young
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pascal Siakam, Thaddeus Young, Marcus Morris
Center
Nikola Jokic ($10,600 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel) is always one of the highest-upside options when he plays and tonight is no different as he faces the Detroit Pistons. Jokic leads the Nuggets in usage rate, rebounding rate and assist rate this season. He has averaged 35 minutes per game over the last month, which is second to Jamal Murray, and he has averaged 1.58 DraftKings points per minute over that time. Murray is questionable tonight and, if he sits, Jokic will most likely see increased usage and assist opportunities. We may not get Murray’s official status until after lock, so there is the potential for additional upside at relatively low ownership if Murray is ruled out close to the start of Denver’s game.
Nikola Vucevic ($8,700 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute in five games with the Bulls. He has only averaged 30.8 minutes per game, including 32.4 minutes in a competitive game against the Nets last time out, but the per-minute production is similar to his time in Orlando. His salary has dipped a bit since his trade and there is the potential for a couple of extra minutes tonight with Theis sidelined as well.
Clint Capela ($8,600 DraftKings/$9,900 FanDuel) is extremely expensive on FanDuel, but he is more reasonably priced on FanDuel as he faces Steven Adams and the New Orleans Pelicans. Capela played 32.2 minutes against Golden State on Sunday and his playing time has increased since Collins’ injury. In three games without Collins, Capela has averaged 35.1 minutes per game and 1.49 DraftKings points per minute. One of those three games was a double overtime game where Capela played about 34 minutes in regulation. If we adjust his average for that game, he has averaged 31.8 minutes per game without Collins — but he also lost about three minutes to garbage time in one of the games (against the Pelicans). All in all, I expect 32 to 34 minutes from Capela, who has averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute overall this season.
Ivica Zubac ($5,400 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) should get another start tonight with Serge Ibaka still sidelined. Zubac has averaged 29.1 minutes per game and 0.92 DraftKings points per minute in eight starts with George and Leonard active during Ibaka’s recent string of absences. He will face a Portland frontcourt led by a traditional center in Enes Kanter and he also could get additional playing time against two attacking guards in Lillard and McCollum similar to the additional playing time that he got against Luka Doncic when the Clippers played Dallas.
Enes Kanter ($6,000 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) has started seven games with Lillard and McCollum active this season. He has averaged 28.9 minutes per game and 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in those games. Kanter is at an awkward price point where there are more expensive centers with higher ceilings and less expensive centers with better point-per-dollar projections, but that could make him a good contrarian option in tournaments if it keeps his ownership down.
Andre Drummond ($6,500 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) is one of the biggest question marks on the slate. He only played 14 minutes in his Lakers’ debut on March 31 before leaving the game with a toe injury. By most accounts, he looked awful while he was on the floor and seemed like he wasn’t in game shape. He picked up four fouls in his 14 minutes and only produced 8.75 DraftKings points. There is clearly risk here even if he is able to play. The potential reward is that he is inexpensive, especially on FanDuel, and averaged nearly 1.5 DraftKings points per minute with the Cavaliers this season. If he is somehow able to play 25-plus minutes tonight, and do so while producing at his normal rates, he has the potential to be one of the best plays on the slate. He is an extremely risky, extremely high-upside option tonight if he starts.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Nikola Vucevic, Clint Capela, Ivica Zubac
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Nikola Vucevic, Ivica Zubac, Andre Drummond (still very risky)
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