Tuesday, Feb. 11 has a quick five-game main slate as we head into the All-Star Break. Before you lock in your NBA DFS lineups and NBA DFS picks on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s NBA DFS rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS Picks, including Zion Williamson, LaMarcus Aldridge and more.
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NBA DFS Picks: Prime Time Players
Zion Williamson: New Orleans vs. Portland Trail Blazers
DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $7,200, Yahoo $33; Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 26.5%, FanDuel 41.3% Yahoo 27.0%
For everyone who feels that I think Zion Williamson is a bad player, this one is for you. My general stance is that we had been seeing the rookie priced a little too high and being a little to popular on the salary sites. It is important to keep in mind that he has yet to reach 40 fantasy points in a game this year. If Brandon Ingram (ankle) is out, Williamson will be even more popular.
Looking at his eight games, Williamson has averaged 26.9 minutes with 1.25 fantasy points per minute. Since his debut when he was 4-for-4 from beyond the arc, he has missed his last five 3-point attempts. While he averaged 1.8 blocks in his 33 college games, he has just three in his first eight games in the NBA.
Over their last 15 games, Portland is allowing 116.2 points per 100 possessions which is the fourth worst in the league. They are a mediocre rebounding team and are playing at a top-10 pace over the same time frame. The matchup against Hassan Whiteside will make getting rebounds tough, but the rest of the Portland frontcourt is less intimidating.
Projecting Williamson for career highs with 25 points, 12 rebounds and three combined blocks/steals will get him just over 40 fantasy points. At his price and with only 10 teams in the player pool, I am willing to roll with him as a core play, even though I think his maximum upside is 50 fantasy points.
NBA DFS Picks: Good Value
LaMarcus Aldridge: San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder
DraftKings $6,700, FanDuel $7,100, Yahoo $30; Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 41.7%, FanDuel 39.1% Yahoo 28.8%
This one is predicated on DeMar DeRozan (back spasms) missing another game after being a late scratch last night. From the sound of it, he is considered doubtful and with this being the last game for the Spurs before the All-Star Break, it would be prudent to give him another night off. LaMarcus Aldridge has been mired in a disappointing stretch for the last two months, but he has shown signs of life. He sees a bump of 0.22 fantasy points per minute when DeRozan is off the court. More importantly, Aldridge should get more field goal attempts and thus more chance to unlock his upside. Though it is no guarantee of any success tonight, in the previous two meetings with the Thunder this season with DeRozan playing, the big man averaged 30.5 points and 9.0 rebounds.
Aldridge has averaged 31.4 minutes in his five back-to-backs this season and he played 35.1 minutes last night in Denver, which is two above his 33.1 per game season average. At his current price point, it is looking like Aldridge is one of the better price-per-dollar plays with upside on the slate.
Lonnie Walker IV drew the start last night and played 27 minutes. He is the most likely candidate to be in the starting lineup again if DeRozan misses. He is an easy guy to plug in at near-minimum salary across the board.
Yahoo Fantasy Discount Dandies
Lonnie Walker IV at OKC – $10
Luke Kornet at WAS – $11
Moritz Wagner vs. CHI – $12
If you haven’t signed up for Yahoo Fantasy DFS, click this link and use the promo code Awesemo when making your first deposit and you will be eligible for $30 of free play, which Yahoo will match through the first $30 of your deposit. This bonus will be received in Yahoo Sports Rewards Points, aka YSRP, which can be used to enter any paid contest immediately.
NBA DFS Picks: SuperDraft
Zion Williamson: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Portland Trail Blazers – 1.6x multiplier
LaMarcus Aldridge: San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder – 1.45x multiplier
Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Portland Trailblazers – 1.40x multiplier
Our standout SuperDraft recommendations for today are Zion Williamson and LaMarcus Aldridge who are at 1.6x and 1.45x multipliers, respectively, and both are detailed in the above section. Next, we should give strong consideration to Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball who are both receiving a 1.40x multiplier in a favorable matchup against Portland. They will be very popular if Brandon Ingram (ankle) is out, but hey are still strong plays if he takes the court.
If you haven’t signed up for SuperDraft DFS, click this link and use the promo code Awesemo when making your first deposit of at least $100 and you will be eligible for $20 of free play. That will be provided in SuperDraft Cash which can be used to enter any paid contest immediately.
NBA DFS Picks: Risky Value
Dejounte Murray: San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder
DraftKings $5,200, FanDuel $5,100, Yahoo $20; Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 23.3%, FanDuel 35.8% Yahoo 23.8%
Murray played a season-high 33.7 minutes last night. This is notable because he missed the last year with a knee injury and started out this season on a minutes limit with back-to-back restrictions. His per-minute numbers are solid at 1.1 fantasy points per minute and he has averaged 24.5 minutes per game. The concern is that in his three back-to-backs, Murray has played just 23.8 minutes and is averaging 8.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.3 combined blocks/steals in those games. His last back-to-back was one week ago and he played 24.8 minutes after playing 24.6 the night before. He saw 25.2 and 22.5 minutes on Jan. 26 and 27, respectively, with 22.1 and 24.0 on a Jan. 19-20 back-to-back.
Tread lightly here and if Murray continues to see this level of popularity, the direct leverage pivot is to teammate Derrick White, who generally splits point guard minutes with Murray. Patty Mills and Brynn Forbes usually split shooting guard minutes. This quartet along with Lonnie Walker IV and Marco Belinelli round out the guard and wing lineups when Aldridge slides to the five and DeRozan and Rudy Gay take over the nominal power forward role.
Even with just five games on the docket, this is shaping up to be a fun slate. Be sure to tune in to the Deeper Dive/Live Before Lock shows on YouTube, Twitch and Periscope beginning at 5 p.m. EST tonight for all of the up-to-date information.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any NBA DFS questions about DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo or FantasyDraft.
Good Luck, NBA DFS Gamers! ~ EMac
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