Tuesday, Feb. 4 gives us a quick four-game main slate for all the big daily fantasy sites. Before you lock in your NBA DFS lineups and NBA DFS picks on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s NBA DFS rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS Picks, including Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Harden, Austin Rivers and more.
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NBA DFS Picks: Prime Time Players
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Milwaukee Bucks at New Orleans Pelicans
DraftKings $11,400, FanDuel $11,500, Yahoo $55 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 15.7%, FanDuel 27.6% Yahoo Fantasy 22.8%
There is going to be a lot of game theory tonight in our roster construction strategy. We have James Harden who will be without Clint Capela (foot) for another game and Russell Westbrook (thumb) who has been all but officially ruled out.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been amazing this season, averaging 57.5-60.0 fantasy points per game depending on your preferred DFS site of choice. Currently he is second in the league in scoring with 30.0 points per game and he is fifth with 13.1 rebounds per game. Throw in 5.8 assists and 2.2 combined blocks and steals and we have another MVP-caliber season. The tricky part is that Antetokounmpo is averaging 30.7 minutes per game which tends to cap his fantasy upside.
Two things are in our favor tonight. First, the Bucks are on the road and while they are favored by six, the Pelicans are going to do everything they can to win this game. Even if they are not victorious, the hope is that it remains competitive. In the nine games where he has played at least 35 minutes, Giannis is averaging a tick shy of 70 fantasy points.
In the first projection run, his popularity is half of Harden’s on DraftKings and FanDuel. Over on Yahoo where they are the same price, Giannis projects to be in a third as many lineups as Harden.
The Bucks are playing at the fastest pace in the league over their last 15 games and New Orleans checks in just three spots behind. On the other hand, Harden will likely see 5-8 more minutes than Giannis against the slowest-paced team over the last 15 games. Charlotte has been hemorrhaging points, allowing 114.9 per 100 possessions which is a bottom-five efficiency, despite their slow pace.
NBA DFS Picks: SuperDraft
Zion Williamson: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Milwaukee Bucks – 1.6x multiplier
Khris Middleton: Milwaukee Bucks at New Orleans Pelicans – 1.45x multiplier
Jerami Grant: Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trailblazers – 1.7x multiplier
Our standout SuperDraft recommendation for today is Zion Williamson who is just too good to pass up at 1.6x even though he has yet to top 40 unmodified fantasy points in his six games. Khris Middleton gets a nice fast-paced matchup against the Pelicans who are playing at the fourth-fastest pace over the last 15 games. Jerami Grant has had an impressive eight game stretch which has increased his price on the salary cap sites. The 3.25 combined blocks/steals is not sustainable, but the 1.7x multiplier can make up a lot of ground on this short slate.
If you haven’t signed up for SuperDraft DFS, click this link and use the promo code Awesemo when making your first deposit of at least $100 and you will be eligible for $20 of free play. That will be provided in SuperDraft Cash which can be used to enter any paid contest immediately.
NBA DFS Picks: Good Value
Austin Rivers: Houston Rockets vs. Charlotte Hornets
DraftKings $3,600, FanDuel $4,000, Yahoo $13 Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 52.8%, FanDuel 57.2% Yahoo Fantasy 24.8%
Listing Austin Rivers as good value is never fun, but he is incredibly cheap on DraftKings and reasonably cheap on FanDuel. Depending on your site of choice, he averages about 0.67-0.75 fantasy points per minute without Russell Westbrook on the court. There is a strong likelihood that he will approach 30 minutes tonight which has him among the best value plays with our limited eight-team player pool.
Eric Gordon is also a strong play across the board at a falling price tag. For the season, he is averaging just shy of a fantasy point per minute. We have seen positive shooting regression over his last 15 games with a 43.0% average as compared to his 31.0% rate during the first nine games of the season. Feel free to play both Gordon and Rivers in the same lineups.
Yahoo Fantasy Discount Dandies
Donte DiVincenzo at NOP – $12
Danuel House Jr vs. CHA – $15
Ben McLemore vs. CHA – $10
Danny Green vs. SAS – $12
If you haven’t signed up for Yahoo Fantasy DFS, click this link and use the promo code Awesemo when making your first deposit and you will be eligible for $30 of free play, which Yahoo will match through the first $30 of your deposit (this bonus will be received in Yahoo Sports Rewards Points, aka YSRP, which can be used to enter any paid contest immediately).
NBA DFS Picks: Risky Value
San Antonio Spurs Backcourt
We have San Antonio on a back-to-back and we know that coach Gregg Popovich mixes and matches his backcourt players constantly. Even on the four-game slate, I do not want more than two of these guys on the same lineup.
Dejounte Murray has played in just two back-to-backs this season. Both games were the most recent chances for him to do so and he played 22.5 and 24.0 in the second games. As a comparative baseline, excluding those two games he averaged 25.5 minutes in his last dozen games. Even if he remains in the starting lineup, he is not guaranteed minutes.
Patty Mills has been unsustainably hot from beyond the arc with 18 triples in his last four games. He also posted six steals in these four games which are making his game logs look good despot topping 25 minutes only once in this span.
Derrick White tends to be volatile because he usually only gets 6-8 field goal attempts per game. In his last four appearances, he has scored four, 10, 12 and zero points. He also does not get many steals with four in his last eight games. During that same time frame, he has 11 blocks though, which is artificially increasing his baseline performance to the untrained eye.
Bryn Forbes should see 20-23 mostly empty minutes. Since the beginning of January, he is averaging a very pedestrian 0.67 fantasy points per minute.
Lonnie Walker IV and Marco Belinelli are lurking just to pop up at the worst possible time.
Final Thoughts
As has become the new baseline, we are also looking at a lot of moving parts based on news updates so be sure to tune in to the Deeper Dive/Live Before Lock shows on YouTube, Twitch and Periscope beginning at 5:30 p.m. EST tonight for all of the up-to-date information.
As always, you can reach out to me in Awesemo.com Premium Slack or on Twitter @EMacDFS if you have any NBA DFS questions about DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo or FantasyDraft.
Good Luck NBA DFS Gamers! ~ EMac
If you haven’t signed up for SuperDraft DFS, click this link and use the promo code Awesemo when making your first deposit of at least $100 and you will be eligible for $20 of free play. It will be provided in SuperDraft Cash which can be used to enter any paid contest immediately.
